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Transport Congestion in the South East of England. Jim Steer, Director Steer Davies Gleave. EEESTA Prestige Seminar University of Hertfordshire 14 th November 2007. Outline . Paint a picture of the wider South East, the recent trends, a snapshot of today and how it will change
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Transport Congestion in the South East of England Jim Steer, Director Steer Davies Gleave EEESTA Prestige Seminar University of Hertfordshire 14th November 2007
Outline • Paint a picture of the wider South East, the recent trends, a snapshot of today and how it will change • Take note of the committed policy and investment responses (many of them, very recent) • Focus on the rail network and the several distinct tasks it has to fulfil • Identify the gaps: what more do we need to contemplate?
East of England Population: 5,362,339 Employment: 2,577,523 Greater London Population: 7,140,206 Employment: 3,331,203 South East England Population: 7,944,783 Employment: 3,880,341 Population and Employment Levels (2001 Census)
East of England 2001: 5,362,339 2006: 5,603,045 2016: 5,944,795 2026: 6,362,866 Greater London 2001: 7,140,206 2006: 7,168,736 2016: 7,697,670 2026: 8,029,270 South East England 2001: 7,944,783 2006: 8,218,983 2016: 8,629,771 2026: 9,123,940 Population Growth 2001 – 2026 (2001 Census/TEMPRO)
East of England New Housing Allocations to 2021 Source: Regional Spatial Strategy
Commuting Mode Choice by Destination and Length of Trip, 2002-2005
Commuting Trip trends by Length, Time and Household Car Ownership, 1996-2004
Commuting Trends in the South East • Cambridge Econometrics and WSP’s work of 2005 showed that: • Car commuting trips are likely to stabilise and then shorten in the face of growing road congestion • Rail commuting trip lengths are likely to rise • ‘Reverse’ commuting to areas such as the Thames Valley will grow dramatically (based on population/employment imbalances).
Forecast all Rail Crowding in London and the South East during the Morning Peak 2026 (inward flows and load-factor – all services)
Transport Needs Where Central London’s Workers Live Source: Transport 2025 and Regional Trends 2006
Committed Policy and Investment Responses • A set of London plans designed to sustain the recently-won status of world pre-eminence in financial services • A programme of Sustainable Growth locations for the wider South East • The creation of a regional express rail network for London and the wider South East through Crossrail and Thameslink • A programme of investment planned for rail through the ‘HLOS’ process over the next 7 years, targetted on capacity increases • A motorway widening programme and the prospect of road user charging (ten years hence) • Substantial efforts to influence behaviour: ‘smarter choices’ • Various ‘reforms’: regional plans (regional assemblies disbanded; planning reform; business rate levies to help fund infrastructure).
But here’s the problem… • Department for Transport policy (PSA targets) driven by the need to support economic efficiency • The wider South East faces the challenge of substantial growth but without the agency needed to address it • Nationally we have an urgent need to reduce carbon emissions – and transport is the big growth sector for carbon emissions smarter travel choices alone insufficient in the face of growth • Carbon efficient ways of travelling oblige us to examine solutions more widely than those in hand (which have a central London focus) we are yet to fashion a contemporary model for sustainable development suitable for application in the wider South East as it expands.
The Overall Environmental Balance Source: Steer Davies Gleave (for Transport 2000, July 2006)
The Challenges for the Rail Network in the South East • London commuting • Providing metro-type services within London • Being the lynch-pin of the national freight network • Intercity services • Links to the South East’s airports (from London and elsewhere) • European high-speed services (and domestic high-speed services in future?) and • Provide the network that supports sustainable expansion of the wider South East.
The Nature of the Solutions we need to Consider (Rail) • Capacity expansion (more of the same: longer trains, new signalling systems) • Network modernisation: grade separation of junctions and provision of user-friendly interchanges • Provision of ‘missing links: • Croxley link • East West Rail • Heathrow, Stansted • Segregation of traffics to create more efficient network utilisation: • A set of cross London freight priority routes and new freight terminals • Creation of a high-speed network to free up existing main lines.
Cross London Freight Priority Route • Key growth markets unitised (container) flows Shellhaven, Haven Ports; Aggregates; Waste transfer; logistics/distribution (potentially) • Across inner north London, new eastern Thames crossing and linked to ‘traditional’ (gauge enhanced) routes to channel tunnel • Connects the GWML, WCML, MML, ECML, GEML and SEML • Addresses 90% of London rail freight movements • Relieve existing routes to allow genuine ‘metro’ 3 minute headway services on existing lines • Remove a huge constraint on rail freight growth: 6 hours of non-operability.
Domestic High Speed Lines • HS1 adds capacity to the Kent network twice over • HS2 can provide: • Similar relief to the main rail corridors on the north side of London • Create the wider east-west cross-regional links to complement Crossrail: • Fast direct links Heathrow – St Pancras and Stratford • A network of services centred on Heathrow to serve the northern home counties, complementary to Airtrack • HS3 can provide a resolution to the challenge of the ‘M11 corridor’: • New fast line to support longer distance services and fast commuter services (Javelin style): • Stansted under 30 minutes • Cambridge-Peterborough growth areas • Canary Wharf/Stratford • Relief for the ECML and the WAML.
Conclusions • We don’t have the agency needed to address the wider planning challenge in the South East • Smarter travel choices alone are insufficient in the face of the level of growth forecast • We are yet to fashion a contemporary model for sustainable development suitable for application in the wider South East as it expands But • There is an unprecedented investment programme in-hand which will ‘untie’ London • A strategic approach points towards a next generation of rail infrastructure schemes that can address the wide set of challenges that the wider South East faces.