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Why uncertainties matter

Why uncertainties matter. Science: testing hypotheses Seismic moment rate = tectonic moment rate Fault size limits earthquake size Earthquakes are quasi-periodic (or clustered) Postseismic deformation reveals stress relaxation process Practice (e.g. seismic hazard)

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Why uncertainties matter

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  1. Why uncertainties matter • Science: testing hypotheses • Seismic moment rate = tectonic moment rate • Fault size limits earthquake size • Earthquakes are quasi-periodic (or clustered) • Postseismic deformation reveals stress relaxation process • Practice (e.g. seismic hazard) • Models sample distribution of data; uncertainty generally increases hazard • Uncertainties used in weighting model components • Respect

  2. Variability of slip rate due to random earthquake occurrence David D. Jackson Corliss Sio UCLA

  3. Model of fault slip by random earthquakes • Gutenberg Richter 6.0 – 8.5 • Uniform random times (Poisson process) • Uniform random moment centroids on 1200 km fault • Length, width, slip all proportional to M1/3 • All events break surface

  4. The Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency distribution Number of events greater than magnitude 5 is about 10 times the number greater than 6, etc.

  5. Conclusions • Gutenberg-Richter, Poissonian earthquakes produce record similar to observed. • Expect spatially variable slip rate due to random occurrence of quakes • Expect temporal variations in slip rate due to random earthquake occurrence, significant for up to 10,000 years.

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