Hypothesis

1. Fig. 1 Preliminary model sectors Total values Marsh ecosystem Marine ecosystem UV-B radiation Socio-economics Freshwater ecosystem Terrestrial ecosystem Note on Fig. 1: The model overview is based on the qualitative model. Therefore, the connections between the model sectors are not reflecting all of the connections that will become active in the quantitaive simulation model. Work in Progress Introduction Mediated Modeling (MM) refers to a process of collaborative model building. Mediated modeling is used as the method to construct a simulation model at scoping level. The MM process provides a platform for about ten local stakeholders (representing education, tourism, fisheries and medical professions) and five Principal Investigators of the IAI program (representing UV radiation, ecosystems modeling and aquatic ecosystems; marine, marsh and fresh water) to discuss and systematically think through the complex problem of “socio-economic impacts of Uvb” in an interactive group setting. The discussion is simultaneously recorded in the form of a computer model with the aid of dynamic systems software (STELLA). The process of modeling allows for structuring the thinking, interpret existing data, identify gabs in data requirements and discover non-linear behavior in the link between socio-economics and UVb. Through the process of joint model building the stakeholders can identify the type of information they would like to have and the researchers can summarize their results understandable and useful for local professionals. The first series of MM workshops took place on November 13 - 16 in Ushuaia. A qualitative scoping model was developed as well as a list of data requirements to be assembled during the next three years. The workshop started with the formulation of questions the model should answer. After developing a qualitative scoping model in STELLA the questions were revisited and some preliminary consensus statements about the system were presented. The participantsare committed to gather the required data over the coming 3 years. A follow-up meeting of PI’s and local stakeholders will take place in 2004 in order to upgrade the scoping model to a summary model, run scenario’s and draw final consensus-based conclusions and recommendations. Socio-Economic Impacts of Uvb Using Mediated ModelingMarjan van den Belt, Ph.D. (Mediated Modeling Partners, LLC, P.O. Box 1589, Solomons, MD 20688, U.S.A. Ph. & Fax: 410 ­ 535 2026, www.mediatedmodeling.com) Objectives The goal for the Mediated Modeling component is a mutual learning among PI’s and Local Stakeholders what the practical questions are concerning “socio-economic impacts of Uvb radiation”, determine the available information and what can be expected during the course of the project, construct and run a simulation model, develop new research questions and a set of consensus-based conclusions for policy purposes. The final model will be user-friendly. Each of the participants will be able to demonstrate the insights gained to constituencies to back up the consensus-based conclusions. A tutorial will be provided to ensure that participants are comfortable demonstrating the model to non-participants. Hypothesis The mediated model is shaped by the input and group dynamics of the PI’s and the Local Stakeholders. Creativity is encouraged through the MM process in order to explore innovative and effective ways to address the issue. It is therefore not possible, nor desirable to predict the exact outcome. At best, some propositions can be made: * The mediated modeling process will assist the synthesis of the knowledge, experience, existing data and the summarized data that will be available through the extended program of which this mediated modeling exercise is a part. * Since a wide variety of stakeholders develop the model, the consensus based conclusions have a better change of being implemented than if these recommendations came from a single authority. Sampling and Work Done During a four day meeting in Ushuaia, four PI’s and about ten Local Stakeholders constructed a qualitative scoping model based on a list of “questions the model should address”. A list of data requirements was developed based on the qualitative model. The participants are committed to gather and submit the data by 2003. A second workshop is planned for 2004 to present the quantitative simulation model, run scenario’s, prepare conclusions and involve the participants in a tutorial on how to demonstrate the final model to others. Fig. 2 Preliminary qualitative model Local Stakeholders:Miguel Isla , Dir. of Sci. and Tech., Subsecretaria de planeamientoEsteban Mel, Sec. of healthOsvaldo Barturen, V.A.G. StationGabriel Karamanian, V.A.G Station Sergio Luppo, V.A.G StationNemesio San Román, Lab.of Bioecology of fish and phytoplankton, CADIC Oscar Bianciotto, University of PatagoniaGraciela Iturburu, Chamber of TourismMónica Couly , DermatologistStella Domínguez, Institute of Tierra del Fuego of Tourism Sonia Pérez, Ophthalmologist, Hospital Regional UshuaiaGloria Pereda, EducationGraciela Ramacciotti Ing. Marcelo Dragan, National CongressmanAna GamboaLuis Pinedo, CADIC • Some Preliminary Recommendations • Information / education about mitigation / prevention options. • Strengthen the links between research, education and policy. • Invest in basic research; many pieces of the puzzle are still missing and may not be resolved within the scope of this program. • Some Preliminary Conclusions • Tourists stay away from Ushuaia out of fear for UV. • Damage to health, eyes, skin, immune system. • Negative impact on fish population. • Negative impact on ecosystem services. IAI-program involved researchers:Susana Díaz, CADIC, ArgentinaEvamaria Koch, University of Maryland, USASerge Demers, ISMER, University of Quebec, CanadaFernando Momo, University of Lujan, ArgentinaHoracio Zagarese, Argentina Lay-out done by Karine Lacoste