Christopher L. Clay Air Vehicles Directorate Air Force Research Laboratory

1. Christopher L. Clay Air Vehicles Directorate Air Force Research Laboratory CERTIFICATION BY ANALYSIS Overview to FAA 30 August 2001

2. Definition By Analysis Increasing reliance on analytical techniques to achieve a more comprehensive understanding of the system in order to manage system risk better Certification A structured mechanism of identifying and reducing risk to insure a system is safe to operate and meets performance goals

3. Goal Reduce time and cost associated with certification

4. Fatigue Test Article Static Test Article Preproduction Verification Test Article Critical Subcomponent Testing Panel and Critical Detail Testing Coupon Element Testing Structural Building Block Testing Motivation 10’s of $M each block

5. Design Process Research & Development High Fidelity/ Risk Quantified Methods Analysis Certification System Knowledge Reliable Predictions Eliminate Surprises In Tests & In Field Reduce Tests System Acquisition Reduce Time and $$$ Transition Approach

6. Design Process • Rapid modeling h Configuration management • Object oriented h Information/data management Design Process High Fidelity/ Risk Quantified Methods Analysis Certification Approach • Current Design Process Deficiencies • Slow and fragmented design process • “Over the wall” communications • Sequential processing

7. High Fidelity/ Risk Quantified Methods Design Process • Non-deterministic methods • Faster turn-around time • ROM/Nonlinear methods High Fidelity/ Risk Quantified Methods Analysis Certification Approach High Fidelity/Risk Quantified Methods Deficiencies • Uncertainty modeling in Structures and Aerodynamics • Understanding of the physics • Computationally intensive high fidelity methods

8. Analysis Certification Design Process • Expert systems • Benchmarking • VV&A High Fidelity/ Risk Quantified Methods Analysis Certification Approach Analysis Certification Deficiencies • Modeling errors • Credibility of analytical results • Implementation of analysis • Human errors

9. Production Representative Articles Packaging, Handling & Transportation Contractor Testing Concept of Operations Test Team Training Developmental Testing Support Agreements Interoperability& Compatibility Personnel MNS TEMP Live Fire Testing Software Development Test & Eval Infrastructure Contractor Support ORD OT&E Plan Deficiency ID & Correction Process Safety Reviews & Certifications Modeling & Simulation Threat Systems COEA System Maturity Deficiency Resolution Security Planning Support Equipment Technical Data STAR Configuration Management Plan Maintenance Concept Seek Eagle AFI 63-104 Sufficiency of Spares Certification ProcessAFMAN 63-119 Test Planning & Documentation System Design & Performance Test Assets & Support Schedule System Performance

10. Certification by Analysis Horizontal and Vertical Integration INTEGRATED DESIGN REDUCE TIME & COST SENSORS WEAPONS PROPULSION AERODYNAMICS STRUCTURES CONTROLS CAMPAIGN MISSION / ENGAGEMENT Conceptual Design Preliminary Design Detailed Design Fundamental Sciences& Empirical Data

11. Design Process High Fidelity/ Risk Quantified Methods Analysis Certification Certification by AnalysisBuilding Block Approach Sim based Acquisition Vehicle Propulsion Control Subsystems Aero Structures Tail Wing Fuselage Skins Wing box Bulkheads Skins Spars Ribs Applies to each block

12. RTO – new WGs Qualification by Analysis Integration of Tools and Processes for Affordable Weapons Reduction of Military Vehicle Acquisition Time & Cost Through Advanced Product Simulation Prior work published 1990 NASA FAA – Probability Analysis DARPA – AIM AFRL ML – Analytical Chemistry PR – Probability Analysis VA – Integration Other Industries Nuclear power – cannot take to failure Nuclear arms – Test Ban Treaty Submarine – Similar to A/C Civil Structure – One-of-a-kind, SF – 100 yrs ago 3, today=2 Chemical - Analysis to eliminate human specimens Under process. Source: Bill Moyers – PBS Certification by AnalysisPlayers

13. Summary Risk reduction, design driven process that we can impact by fully utilizing technologies such as uncertainty analysis and ROM resulting in a reduction in the dependence on testing and increasing our design capabilities - instilling innovation and freedom.

14. Backups

15. IPT Structure Advisory Group AFRL/VA – Chair AFRL/PR AFRL/MN Seek Eagle AF/TE ASC/EN SAF/AQ ALC Navy FAA Boeing LMCO NG Working Groups Integrating IPT AFRL/VA – Chair Chairs from each of the IPT + a design environments and process POC Propulsion Airframes Stores Controls Others Aero

16. Advisory Group Advisory Group AFRL/VA – Chair IPT AFRL/VA – Chair AFRL/PR AFRL/MN AF/TE ASC/EN SAF/AQ ALC Navy N/ N/ FAA Boeing LMCO NG Chairs from each of the IPT + a design environments and process POC Airframes Stores Propulsion Controls Others Aero Chair – Dr Don Paul, AFRL/VA AFRL/PR – Dr Alan Garscadden AFRL/MN – Mr Stephen Korn Seek Eagle - Dr. William Dyess, Jr AF/TE – Mr John T Manclark or Mr David Hamilton ASC/EN – Dr John W Lincoln SAF/AQ – Dr Don Daniel ALC – Navy Test and Evaluation Staff (AIR 5.0C) Air Vehicle (AIR 4.3) Airworthiness (AIR 4.0P) FAA Boeing – Dr James Mark LMCO – Mr Kevin Imoto NG – Mr Jerry Lockenour

17. IPTs • Lead – • Team: Advisory Group AFRL/VA – Chair Overarching IPT AFRL/VA – Chair AFRL/PR AFRL/MN AF/TE ASC/EN SAF/AQ ALC Navy N/ N/ FAA Boeing LMCO NG Chairs from each of the IPT + a design environments and process POC Airframes Stores Propulsion Controls Others Aero

18. Overarching IPT Advisory Group AFRL/VA – Chair Overarching IPT AFRL/VA – Chair AFRL/PR AFRL/MN AF/TE ASC/EN SAF/AQ ALC Navy N/ N/ FAA Boeing LMCO NG Chairs from each of the IPT + a design environments and process POC Airframes Stores Propulsion Controls Others Aero CoChairs – Drs Don Paul and Duane Veley Airframe IPT Lead – Propulsion IPT Lead – Stores IPT Lead – Controls IPT Lead – Aero IPT Lead – Design Environments and Process Lead – Industry Advisors -

19. Air VehiclesFuture Technologies Workshops Chris Clay Air Force Research Laboratory

20. Scenarios MOEs Methods WorkshopProcess Inputs from: Air Force (AF Strat Plan & Majcom MAPs, etc.), other Gov’t, Academia, Industry Workshop I 17-18 Jan 01 Eglin AFB Throughout Process Understand the Air Force Capability Needs Capabilities Needed Workshop II 22-23 May 01 Colorado Springs Assess & Link AF Capability Needs with Aerospace Vehicle Concepts Concepts Identify Technology Programs to Support Concepts & Capability Needs Workshop III 18-19 Sep 01 Wright-Patt AFB Investment Plan Cyclic Process POM

21. INVITED ORGANIZATIONS • ACC, AC2ISRC, AFMC, AFSOC, AFSPC, AMC • AFRL (CC, XP, AFOSR, and all Tech Directorates) • ASC, ESC, SMC, HSW, AEDC • USAF/XP, USAF/XO, SAF/AQR, DDR&E • NASA • Scientific Advisory Board • NAIC • US Army TRADOC • NASC, NAWC • Battle Labs • Boeing, Lockheed-Martin, Northrop Grumman, Orbital Sciences, Allison, General Electric, Honeywell, Pratt & Whitney, Raytheon

22. WORKSHOP IITOP CONCEPT CATEGORIES • Global Power • Strike UAVs • Long-Range Deep Strike Aircraft • Mach 5+ UCAV • Directed Energy Tactical Aircraft • Airborne Carrier • Global Vigilance • High-Altitude Long Endurance ISR Platforms • Recce/Strike UAVs • Cooperative/Persistent Surveillance Strike Vehicles • Unattended Battlespace Sensors • Global Reach • Strategic Airlifter • Tactical Airlifter • Tanker • Space Operations Vehicle • CSAR and Special Ops • Cargo-class SSTOL/VSTOL • CSAR/Special Ops Precision Engagement UAVs

23. WORKSHOP IITOP CONCEPT CATEGORIES • Global Power • Strike UAVs  • Long-Range Deep Strike Aircraft  • Mach 5+ UCAV • Directed Energy Tactical Aircraft  • Airborne Carrier • Global Vigilance • High-Altitude Long Endurance ISR Platforms  • Recce/Strike UAVs  • Cooperative/Persistent Surveillance Strike Vehicles  • Unattended Battlespace Sensors  • Global Reach • Strategic Airlifter  • Tactical Airlifter  • Tanker  • Space Operations Vehicle  • CSAR and Special Ops • Cargo-class SSTOL/VSTOL  • CSAR/Special Ops Precision Engagement UAVs

24. Workshop IV – The next step • Goals • Energize research community on critical research needs of the Air Force • Educate academic community on Workshops I-III • Translate technical challenges from Workshop III into basic science issues • Identify opportunities for new or additional research

25. Workshop Schedule • Multidisciplinary Technologies • 9th AIAA MOA Conference, 4-6 Sept, Atlanta GA • Air Vehicles Controls Technologies • 2002 IEEE Conference on Decision & Control, 10-13 Dec, Las Vegas NV • Aeronautical Sciences Technologies • 41st Aerospace Sciences Meeting, 6-9 Jan 2003, Reno NV • Air Vehicles Structures Technologies • 44th Structures, Structural Dynamics, and Materials Conference, 7-10 April 2003, Norfolk VA

26. Draft Outline Introduction Dr. Jeff Tromp 1330 – 1335 Operator's View of Air Mr. Dave Leggett 1335 – 1420 Vehicles Future Technologies Air Vehicles Structures Research Needs Dr. Dave Pratt 1420 – 1450 Dr. Larry Byrd 1450 – 1520 Mr. Mike Spottswood 1520 – 1550 Mr. Bill Baron 1550 – 1620 Group discussion Dr. Dave Pratt 1620 – 1700