1 / 19

How Russia is Surviving Western Sanctions ?

Martin Gilman Professor of Economics Higher School of Economics University, Moscow. How Russia is Surviving Western Sanctions ?. March 11, 2019. A caveat: views of an American economist observing the Russian economy from within the Moscow Ring Road

jlutz
Download Presentation

How Russia is Surviving Western Sanctions ?

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Martin Gilman Professor of Economics Higher School of Economics University, Moscow How Russia is Surviving Western Sanctions? March 11, 2019

  2. A caveat: views of an American economist observing the Russian economy from within the Moscow Ring Road In considering the economic effects of the multiple rounds of general and targeted sanctions against Russia since March 2014, there are 3 general themes: • The macroeconomic data are ambiguous. It’s logical to assume that sanctions negatively affect Russian economic performance as various studies have shown, but we don’t have a valid counter-factual. Nevertheless, the Russian economy seems to be gradually recovering since the trough of 2015.

  3. Most Russians now assume that sanctions have become a permanent feature of US foreign policy. Moves are underway to reorient the Russian economy to become more autonomous and resilient. No doubt at considerable cost in terms of economic efficiency, it should be able to cope with further sanctions. • The consequences of this re-orientation can be counter-productive over time to Western interests as well as unfortunate within Russia itself – but not in the way that the sponsors of the sanctions probably anticipated.

  4. Russian nominal GDP in US$ terms Source: Rosstat, Gavrilenkov & Kudrin

  5. Russia: Real interest rates

  6. Russia: Real exchange rates

  7. Russia: Trade data and current account annual data, $ billion

  8. Russia: Retail sales and disposable income quarterly data

  9. Russia: Labor and wage trends quarterly data

  10. Russia: Federal budget, % of GDP

  11. Russia: Monetary aggregates, % of GDp,Annual data

  12. MOEX Russia index

  13. RUSSIA: Importance of investment as GDP growth driver will increase substantially in coming years

  14. Current account balances in selected countries, $ billion

  15. Countries that have introduced sanctions against Russia, its citizens or Enterprises, 2017

  16. Central Bank of Russia Currency composition of reserves

  17. Main goals of the Russian Federation May 2018

  18. Acknowledgement I am grateful to EvgenyGavrilenkov and Alexander Kudrin for data, as well as the Research staff of Sberbank CIB.

More Related