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The Unpredictable and in Many Ways Unprecedented 2016 Elections!

Join us for the CIRT Fall Conference on November 2, 2016, as we delve into the unpredictable and unprecedented 2016 elections. Explore the state of the nation, the impact on all three branches of government, and the latest polling data. Stay informed and engaged in shaping the future!

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The Unpredictable and in Many Ways Unprecedented 2016 Elections!

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  1. Mark A. Casso CIRT Fall Conference November 2, 2016 The Unpredictableand in Many Ways Unprecedented2016 Elections!

  2. Keep in Mind • Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future! Neils Bohr Nobel Prize winning Physicist

  3. State of the Nation • It has been said we inhabit a post-factual world, one in which emotion and opinion carry more weight than reason and realty.Undefinable feelings trump – unimpeachable facts.BUT, facts are good. Facts are, to quote Merriam-Webster: “something that truly exists or happens.” USA Today, Paul Myerberg (10/31/16)

  4. WHAT’s AT STAKE? All THREE Branches of Government are on the Ballot. • Executive Branch:Presidential Election (Clinton vs. Trump) • Legislative Branch:34 Senate Seats (24R/10D)All 435 House Seats (current Republican majority is: 247-188). • Judicial Branch:Split Court (4-4), with Justice Scalia’s seat open.

  5. Part 1: The Executive Branch

  6. Executive Branch Reach Executive Branch: • 15 Departments • 55 Major Agencies, Commissions, and Administrative offices (e.g., EPA) • $2.0 Trillion Dollars in Regulatory Impact • Over $4.0 Trillion Annual Budget • Millions of Civilian Employees (2.65M)

  7. Past as Prologue? • Four years ago in late October 2012 the race between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney was essential tied at 47% each (MR up 0.9%). • Final Vote Results: Obama 51.1% to 47.2% Romney (BHO +3.9% margin). • Electoral College Results: Obama 332 – Romney 206 (Only two states switched ‘08: Indiana & North Carolina).

  8. Where is the Race Today? Polling Co. Clinton Trump Date Rasmussen (4) 43.0%42.0% (10/20-24) IBD/TIPP (4) 42.0% 41.0% (10/20-24) 44.0% 42.0% (10/30/16) ABC/WashPo 46.0% 45.0% (10/30/16) LA/Times 44.0% 46.0% (10/30/16) Real Clear Politics Four-Way Race: 41.8% 40.0% (09/12/16)45.8% 40.0% (10/20-26)Two-Way Race: 45.6% 43.6% (09/13/16)48.4% 42.7% (10/20-26)

  9. Referendum on America? • Typically, 1/2-2/3 of voters make up their minds before or during the national conventions, not the final weeks of the campaign. • There is obviously a relationship between the incumbent’s job approval and reelection of the incumbent’s party. [BHO 51.8 - 45.1 (+6.7)]RCP 10/10-24, 2016. The Road to the White House 2008: The Politics of Presidential Elections by Stephen J. Wayne

  10. Referendum on America? • RCP averages Right/Wrong Direction: 28.3% right 63.3% wrong (8/01-9/12/2016)28.6% right 64.0% wrong (10/10-20/2016) • GMU/Battleground (09/08/16) –27% right direction, 66% wrong direction • Rasmussen – 35% right direction, 58% wrong direction Note: At this time in 2012: 39.6% right/55% wrong. (RCP average).

  11. Referendum on America? Better or Worse Off Economically?BetterWorseSame • Gallup 29% 49% 17% • YouGov 19% 44% 31%(10/15-18)

  12. Part 2: The Legislative Branch

  13. The Senate • Control of Congress is at stake, especially in the Senate where Republicans are in the Majority: 54-R’s -- 44-D’s, and 2-Independents. • BUT, the electoral numbers and map greatly favor the Democrats. Up for Re-election in 2016:24- Republicans, and only10-Democrats. • Defending Republican 2010 Wins: Of the six, 4 are in the Midwest (WI, IN, IL, & PA). • Open Seat Races:-- Three Democrats (California, Maryland & Nevada)-- Two Republicans (Indiana & Louisiana)

  14. Senate: Races Up for Election: 24-R’s vs. 10-D’s • State of the Race:Democrat Toss-Up Republican 45* (2/R)7(1D/6R) 46 (0/D) • Lean or Likely Switch to Democrats:IL:Kirk (R) 36.3% - Duckworth (D) 43.6% (10/2)WI:Johnson(R) 43.0%-Feingold(D) 48.3% (10/18)

  15. Senate: Races • Toss-Ups*: 2/Open Races1/R: IN [Young(R) 40.8% - Bayh(D) 44.5%] 1/D: NV [Cortez(D) 43.3% - Heck(R) 44.7% (10/26)] • Toss-Ups*: 5/R (Incumbent Races) NH:Ayotte (R) 46.8% - Hassan (D) 45.5% (10/26)MO:Blunt (R) 45.0% - Kander (D) 44.0% (10/19)PA:Toomey (R) 44.8% - McGinty (D) 43.0% (10/19)NC:Barr (R) 45.4% - Ross (D) 42.2%FL:Rubio (R) 47.0% - Murphy (D) 43.4%*RCP Averages (10/10-10/24, unless noted).

  16. Senate: Balance of Power • Likely Net Change:+ 2-4 Democrats*[IL, WI, IN, and NH, MO or PA] • Still Possible:+4-8 Democrats[IL, WI, IN, NH, PA, MO, NC, & FL] * NOTE: At +4/D’s, the Senate would be split 50R’-48D’s, with the 2-I’s & Clinton win throwing control to the Dems.** NOTE: 2018 Senate Races: 23/Ds-8/Rs-2/Is. Of the eight Republicans, all are in solid R states.

  17. The House of Representatives Current Republican Majority: 247-188 • Seats Needed to Change Control: 30 • Shape of the Race:Democrat Toss-Up Republican 19021224 (6/R) (4D/17R) (1D)

  18. Part 3: The Judicial Branch

  19. A Real Difference When it comes to Judicial Philosophy and Appointments – there is a real difference. • Clinton:“ . . . the Supreme Court needs to stand on the side of the American people, not on the side of the powerful corporations and the wealthy, . . .” • Trump:“They (his picks) will interpret the Constitution the way the founders wanted it interpreted. . .”IBD, A19 (October 24, 2016)

  20. Not on the Ballot, BUT . . . President Nominates. . .The Senate Confirms. • One Supreme Court Seat is open for the new President to fill immediately upon taking the oath of office (January 2017). • Justice Scalia was the champion of the Originalist Constitutional philosophy – clearly a conservative in temperament. Eight remaining are split 4:4 • Remaining Justices: 3:8 are over 75 years old, youngest is 56, only one isnot a graduate of Harvard (4) or Yale (3). None are from the interior of the U.S.

  21. Confirmation Rates Getting who they WANT on the Bench! • Confirmation Rates: Obama 90 % vs. Bush-II 72% Clinton 75% vs. Bush-I 85% Carter 91% vs. Reagan 85% • Days until Confirmation: Obama 324 vs. Bush-II 707 Clinton 250

  22. Ideological Composition

  23. Part 4: The Election

  24. State of the Voters? How do the voters see themselves in 2016? • 27.0% of Americans consider themselves Republicans [-6.8% (2008), -9.8% (2012)]. • 32.0 % of Americans consider themselves Democrats [-9.4% (2008), -2.2% (2012)]. • 40.0% of Americans consider themselves Independents [+15.3% (2008),+11.0% (2012)]. Gallup Poll (09/18/2016)

  25. State of the Voters? • Cares for people like me.Clinton-Trump TIEDObama-Romney 82-18%ABC/WashPo (10/28/16) • Change AgentClinton Yes: 36% No: 60%Trump Yes: 48% No: 48%NYT/CBS (09/15/16)

  26. State of the Voters? Favorable-Unfavorable for the Candidates:(RCP 10/14-25, 2016) • ClintonFavorable 44.5%Unfavorable 52.6% Net: - 8.1% • TrumpFavorable 37.0%Unfavorable 60.0% Net: - 23.0%

  27. State of the Voters? • Impact of FBI Re-opening Investigation of Clinton’s emails.33% of Likely Voters Less Likely to Vote for Clinton

  28. Part 5: Closing Thoughts

  29. Look at Polls With Care • Polling has become more uncertain, with various ways to reach voters, potential under or over sampling, and deliberate reluctance to respond to pollsters. • Nontraditional predictive models seems almost as reliable!But, it’s not all about the popular vote, how will the Electoral College come out?

  30. Electoral College Strategy

  31. Electoral College Strategy 2010 Census Changes to the Electoral Map: • Changes in Safe/Likely Democrat States: Minus (-7), Plus (+1) = Net (-6) • Changes in Safe/Likely Republican States: Minus (-2), Plus (+8) = Net (+6) • Changes in Toss-Up/Too Close to Call States: Minus (-3), Plus (+3) = Net (+0)

  32. 2016 Electoral College Map(RCL 10/25/16) 252Clinton160Toss-Up126Trump

  33. Electoral College Strategy • 270 to WIN: Battleground/Toss-Up States (9/160EVs):PA: +7 Clinton (20 EVs)WI:* +5 Clinton (10 EVs)NH:* +5 Clinton ( 4 EVs)NC: +2 Clinton (15 EVs)NV: TIE ( 6 EVs)FL: TIE (29 EVs)AZ: +1 Trump (11 EVs)GA: +3.3 Trump (16 EVs)IA: +3.7 Trump ( 6 EVs) OH: +4 Trump (20 EVs)TX: +4.7 Trump (38 EVs)ME/2 +4.7 Trump (1 EV)

  34. Optimism/Who Will it Favor? Turnout, turnout, turnout . . . • Who ever motivates its base and has it at the polls on election day – WINS! • BUT, no-one and no model or poll will accurately predict this – because it is a real time election day phenomenon. • And, early voting clouds the models . . .

  35. Non-Scientific Predictors • Strange, but True:-- Redskins Rule: Win last home game, incumbent party retains WH (since 1940).-- Halloween Mask Sales (since 1980).-- Student Vote/K-12 (Only missed in 48&60).-- Summer Olympics: if in a country for the first time, challenger wins (12 of 13, since ‘88). -- Vigo County, IN: Picks winner (since 1956).

  36. Reveal • Non-scientific Results:-- Redskins: Won last home game, BUT had Bye before election day (Clinton).-- Halloween Mask Sales: (Trump 55-45%)-- Student Vote: (Clinton 52-35-13%)-- Summer Olympics: Rio, (Trump). -- Vigo County, IN: Picks winner (since 1956); see on election night!

  37. Questions? What Do You Think?

  38. Keep in Mind • Democracy substitutes election by the incompetent many for appointment by the corrupt few. George Bernard Shaw Irish Dramatist

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