The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks

1. The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current StatusInclude Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 24 February 2014 For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/African_Monsoons/precip_monitoring.shtml

2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP GEFS Forecasts • Summary

3. Highlights:Last 7 Days • Suppressed rainfall prevailed over many places in the central and southern Africa countries, whereas above-average rainfall was observed over parts of Cote d’Ivoire, central Angola, northern Zambia, northern Mozambique, northern Madagascar, and local areas in Tanzania, Kenya and Ethiopia. • Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall over southern Angola, Namibia, western Botswana, northern Zambia, and the neighboring parts of DRC, Tanzania and Malawi. In contrast, there is an increased chance for below-average rainfall over Zimbabwe, Mozambique, southern Malawi, southern Tanzania, Uganda and western Kenya.

4. Rainfall Patterns: Last 7 Days During the past seven days, above-average rainfall was observed over parts of Cote d’Ivoire, portions of Angola, northern Zambia, northern Mozambique, Malawi, northern Madagascar, and local areas in Tanzania, Kenya and Ethiopia. In contrast, much of Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, DRC, northern Angola, parts of Uganda, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, parts of South Africa, central and southern Mozambique, and southern Madagascar had below-average rainfall.

5. Rainfall Patterns: Last 30 Days During the past 30 days, rainfall was above-average over local areas in the Gulf of Guinea region, coastal Gabon and Angola, parts of DRC, northern Congo Brazzaville, CAR, central and eastern Zambia, Tanzania, eastern Namibia, Botswana, much of Zimbabwe, parts of South Africa, Malawi, Mozambique, southern Kenya, and southern Madagascar. In contrast, parts of Gabon, southern Congo Brazzaville, many much of Angola, portions of DRC, northern Namibia, western Zambia, the Lake Victoria region, local areas in Madagascar, and eastern South Africa received below-average rainfall.

6. Rainfall Patterns: Last 90 Days During the past 90 days, parts of Liberia, coastal Nigeria, western Gabon, western Tanzania, eastern Zambia, eastern Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi, local areas in South Africa, and many parts of Madagascar received above-average rainfall. In contrast, rainfall was below-average over southern Congo Brazzaville, many parts of DRC, Angola and northern Namibia.

7. Rainfall Patterns: Last 180 Days During the past 180 days, rainfall was above-average over local areas in eastern Senegal, Guinea, Sierra Leone, portions of western Mali, Liberia, southern Cote d’Ivoire, southeastern Nigeria, portions of Cameroon, western Gabon, northern Congo Brazzaville, western CAR, parts of Ethiopia, local areas in Somalia, western Tanzania, northeastern Namibia, northern Botswana, southern Zambia, Zimbabwe, parts of Mozambique and South Africa, and much of Madagascar. In contrast, parts of Nigeria, eastern Gabon, many parts of DRC, Angola, local areas in Zambia, western Ethiopia, Kenya, and southern Somalia had below-average rainfall.

8. Recent Rainfall Evolution Daily evolution of rainfall over the last 90 days at selected places reflects that seasonal total rainfall remained below-average over parts of Angola (bottom panel-left) and Uganda (top panel right). Moderate to locally heavy rainfall sustained moisture surpluses over parts of northern Mozambique (bottom panel-right).

9. Atmospheric Circulation:Last 7 Days The 850hPa wind anomalies (left panel) featured wind convergence in the vicinity of Mozambique Channel, which may have contributed to the observed above-average rainfall in the region.

10. NCEP GEFS Model ForecastsNon-Bias Corrected Probability of precipitation exceedance Week-1: Valid 25 February – 03 March 2014Week-2: Valid 04 – 10 March 2014 For week-1 (left panel), there is an increased chance for rainfall to exceed 50 mm over parts of Cameroon, Gabon, Congo Brazzaville, southern DRC, Angola, Namibia, Zambia, western Tanzania, Malawi, northern Mozambique and Madagascar. Probabilities of Exceeddance tends to decrease across eastern Africa during Week-2 (right panel).

11. Experimental Week-1 Precipitation Outlooks Feb 25 – Mar 03, 2014 • There is an increased chance for above-average rainfall over southern Angola, Namibia, western Botswana, northern Zambia, and the neighboring parts of DRC, Tanzania, and Malawi: Anomalous lower-level convergence, upper-level divergence and the projected phase of the MJO is expected to enhance rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate • There is an increased chance for below-average rainfall over Zimbabwe, Mozambique, southern Malawi, and southern Tanzania: Anomalous lower-level divergence, upper-level convergence and the projected phase of the MJO is expected to suppress rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate • There is an increased chance for below-average rainfall over Uganda and western Kenya: Anomalous lower-level divergence and upper-level convergence is expected to suppress rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate

12. Experimental Week-2 Precipitation Outlooks Mar 04 – Mar 10, 2014 • There is an increased chance for above-average rainfall over parts of southeastern Nigeria, Cameroon, CAR, Gabon, Congo, and western DRC: Anomalous lower-level convergence coupled with upper-level divergence is expected to enhance rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate • There is an increased chance for above-average rainfall over southern Angola, northern Namibia, western Zambia, Botswana, southern Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and South Africa: Anomalous lower-level convergence coupled with upper-level divergence is expected to enhance rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate • There is an increased chance for below-average rainfall throughout eastern Zambia, Malawi, northern Mozambique, western Tanzania, eastern DRC, Burundi, Rwanda, and Uganda: Anomalous lower-level divergence with areas of anti-cyclonic circulation are expected to suppress rainfall in the region. Confidence: Moderate

13. Summary During the past seven days, above-average rainfall was observed over parts of Cote d’Ivoire, portions of Angola, northern Zambia, northern Mozambique, Malawi, northern Madagascar, and local areas in Tanzania, Kenya and Ethiopia. In contrast, much of Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, DRC, northern Angola, parts of Uganda, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, parts of South Africa, central and southern Mozambique, and southern Madagascar had below-average rainfall. During the past 30 days, rainfall was above-average over local areas in the Gulf of Guinea region, coastal Gabon and Angola, parts of DRC, northern Congo Brazzaville, CAR, central and eastern Zambia, Tanzania, eastern Namibia, Botswana, much of Zimbabwe, parts of South Africa, Malawi, Mozambique, southern Kenya, and southern Madagascar. In contrast, parts of Gabon, southern Congo Brazzaville, many much of Angola, portions of DRC, northern Namibia, western Zambia, the Lake Victoria region, local areas in Madagascar, and eastern South Africa received below-average rainfall. During the past 90 days, parts of Liberia, coastal Nigeria, western Gabon, western Tanzania, eastern Zambia, eastern Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi, local areas in South Africa, and many parts of Madagascar received above-average rainfall. In contrast, rainfall was below-average over southern Congo Brazzaville, many parts of DRC, Angola and northern Namibia. Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall over southern Angola, Namibia, western Botswana, northern Zambia, and the neighboring parts of DRC, Tanzania and Malawi. In contrast, there is an increased chance for below-average rainfall over Zimbabwe, Mozambique, southern Malawi, southern Tanzania, Uganda and western Kenya.