The Decline of Traditional Publishing and the Rise of Demand Side Collecting

1. Dennis Dillon UT -Austin

2. The Economy … and the collection If stupidity got us into this mess, then why can’t it get us out? -- Will Rogers

3. Selection Portfolio ... the steady decline in selector decision making

4. Traditional publishing under threat • Too many traditional publishers chasing too little traditional money • Old business models crumbling • Reading is declining among all age groups … and education levels… in every country surveyed. • Unproven new models still require revenue (institutional/corporate support, pay-per-view, advertising)

5. Academic book (underperforming assets) circulation Among all academic libraries, printed books circulate once every 6.3 years… and have a 15.78% chance of circulating in any given year. (National Center for Education Statistics. Library Program. 2004 tables) Among ARL libraries, printed books on median, have an 8% chance of circulating in any given year (once every 12.5 years) ranging from a high of 20% chance of circulating at Texas, to a low of 1.9% chance of circulating “back east”. (ARL Interactive statistics for 2006) Colorado Alliance of Research Libraries reports that over the last 9 years between 30-67% of their books were never used. ARL libraries spent $295 million dollars buying books in 2007.

6. Supply Side Collection Development Libraries buy what is produced, not what is read or used. selectors do it, collection AULs do it, consortia do it, approval plans & big deals are based on it, etc. How much longer will the economy allow this to continue? How much longer will customers allow this to continue?

7. Book parking spaces (shelf units) Bigger buildings are not the answer

8. The Sacred Longhorns(cows) • Selection matters • Collections matter • Ownership matters • Archiving and preservation matter …or maybe not selection Stuff we never knew about collection Other viewpoints about whatis worthwhile ownership Things outside our box(es) Things we couldn’t afford archiving

9. Stumbling forward (part1): reduce costs, increase coverage, let the users pick the books. • UT has an unmediated, un-restricted, pay-per-view and customer-driven automatic purchase plan for ebooks. • A year ago we linked this to the print approval plan, and stopped getting underperforming print publishers that were covered by the ebook pay-per-view plan. • Several years ago we began buying the books that users requested via ILL i.e. a customer driven collection development for print. • Next - customer driven print approval

10. UT has 10+ years of usage data, by subject, for all our print and ebooks

11. We know which publishers are used and which aren’t

12. UT monographic subject universe (with stats) UT monographic publisher universe (with stats) Determine what works best as an ebook Determine what works best in print Establish ebook publishers & subjects profiles Establish print publishers & subjects profile Drop profile into appropriate acquisition slot Print firm orders Print approval Customer Driven ILL auto purchase Ebook firm orders or packages Customer Driven Print purchases (via OPAC Records) Customer Driven ebook PPV & Purchases

13. Goal = less title-by-title selection and more information management* make more use of data * increase coverage, reduce costs * only pay for a title when it is used* 50% of the selection done by users

14. But incrementally increasing the effectiveness of funds used for books is a minor change: Library customers still want more – and they want that more to be easy, quick, and painless. Library funders still want to control costs

15. ...a new business model • Put more content at users’ fingertips • 2. Insure the continued survival of content providers (publishers, vendors, authors, etc.) • Transform publishers/libraries to meet the challenges of the network.

16. proposal Content that no one wants to distribute or to pay for … can then flow to the scholarly IR. Pay when our users render content into existence Content producers and creators are then rewarded for content that is used

17. Demand Side Collecting introduces some honesty into a distorted market where currently: • - libraries continue to buy content that is not used, • - and publishers continue to produce it, • - and authors continue to create it, • ...and there are minimal adverse consequences for any of the participants. • Demand side collecting: • -rewards publishers who respond to needs • - is more user–centered. • frees up funds that currently go for purchase of unread tenure by-products Put links in OPAC/Worldcat Local etc. and library pays every time a user views it on their iPhone, creates an order for print copy, downloads it to their laptop, or renders it into existence in any way.

18. Transition issues (not just libraries) Successful networks depend on linkages, trust, shared understandings, back-up plans, & network-based cooperation i.e. a tightly integrated business model. • Economics • Business models • Network Trust • Change of roles Information distribution tomorrow Information distribution today

19. The more people that use a network – the better it works. • Networks remove boundaries & obstacles • A network model: pay for what you use (water, electricity, ATMs, pay-as-you go phones, iTunes, etc.)

20. Triangle of denial Sacred Longhorns Supply side values & practices Staying on the same path, and expecting different results Barriers, boxes, boundaries

21. There are other options other options besides libraries If everything seems under control, you’re not going fast enough. --Mario Andretti

22. Triangle of hope User centered digital faucet Maximize access to information by all means possible Stay grounded Intellectual honesty

23. Step 1 - survive Step 2 - stay relevant, let users select Step 3 - transform economics of higher ed publishing Plan B Panic It’s all going to change

24. dillon@austin.utexas.edu