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PRIMA Prototypical Policy Impacts on Multifunctional Activities in Rural Municipalities

PRIMA Prototypical Policy Impacts on Multifunctional Activities in Rural Municipalities. 1/11/2008 – 31/10/2011 (36 months) 7 th PCRD, Environnement. Aim of the project.

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PRIMA Prototypical Policy Impacts on Multifunctional Activities in Rural Municipalities

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  1. PRIMAPrototypical Policy Impacts on Multifunctional Activitiesin Rural Municipalities 1/11/2008 – 31/10/2011 (36 months) 7th PCRD, Environnement

  2. Aim of the project To develop downscaling and upscaling methods of policy impacts on multifunctionality based on microsimulation and agent based models I compute my next state I compute my next state

  3. Prima modelling approaches • Micro-simulation • Simple agents, with rules of evolutions based on probabilities of events, or simple decision rules (no complex interactions between agents) • Common approach to couple demography with other types of dynamics • Agent-based models • More complex decision rules, taking into account the interactions between agents • Heterogeneity of decision rules between agents

  4. Aim of the project The models have to deal with the structural evolution of the populations (appearance, disappearance and change of agents) regarding local conditions and policies. European measures to take into account are build from: Structural Funds (SFs), Cohesion Fund (CF), Preaccession funds (PAFs) Rural Development Funds Cohesion funds sensu lato Pre-accession Funds (EAFRD) (ERDF, ESF, Cohesion) (ISPA) Objectives dealing with Competitiveness… Environment Axis 1: Competitiveness Axis 2: Environment & Land management …Environment & Land management… Axis LEADER Transport Axis 3: Economic diversification & Quality of life xis "LEADER" …Economic diversification & Quality of life

  5. 11 members from 8 countries Cemagref, France, coordinator University of Dortmund, Faculty of Spatial Planning , Germany University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgary Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Dept. of Economics and Resources Management, Norway Agricultural Economics Research Institute, Wageningen UR, The Netherlands Newcastle University, Centre for Rural Economy, Royaume-Uni Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe, Halle/Saale, Germany University of Groningen, Faculty of Economics and Business, The Netherlands Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Netherlands Research Institute of Agricultural Economics, Czech Republic University of Zagreb, Faculty of Agriculture, Croatia

  6. Budget Global budget: 2 603 430 Euros - RTD 2 416 376 Euros - management 187 054 Euros EU contribution 1 999 335 Euros

  7. 6 case study regions

  8. Workpackages and main tasks

  9. LISC agenda Conceive a conceptual model of a municipality Test and adapt it to the case study regions Conceive a conceptual model of the region, based on the one of municipality Extraction of prototypical dynamics at the pertinent level for a given process Evaluation of uncertainties on the possible futures given by the model Regular assessments of the model by stakeholders and extraction of their knowledge on the story basis.

  10. A conceptual model The modelling work required clear objectives for the model. These objectives are defined by the scientific questions addressed by the model: From a practical point of view, the interpretation of the model results has to allow to answer to: • How these tendencies induced a particular level and form of multifunctionality assessed at the municipality level ? • What is the likely impact on these tendencies of different European policies ? • What are the main tendencies at municipality level in terms of: • structure of the population • structure of activities (especially their diversity) • structure of land use

  11. Objective of micro-simulation model • model the evolution of: • population (size, distribution of age), • distribution of activities and housing • land use distribution (main categories), • offer of main services, • in one municipality (or a small set of municipalities) on a first stage • in all rural municipalities of a region for WP4 on the second stage • under scenario on: • municipality policy (in particular the use of structural funds) • external context evolution

  12. Discovering the conceptual model • Viewed by an individual • Viewed at the village level • Viewed at the regional level

  13. The individual ages in a situated household INSIDE MUNICIPALITY SITUATED OUTSIDE OR CONSUMES SERVICES 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 HAS AN ACTIVITY PATTERN MEMBER SITUATED LIVE

  14. Conceptual model: the village, state variables Reachableoutside Other Industries Services Other industries Services S1 J5 J6 S4 S2 S3 J1 J2 J3 J4 J5 Households Lodging L1 L2 L3 L4 U1 U2 U2 U4 Land use Municipality

  15. The municipality model Municipality Reachable outside access to jobs and services

  16. The region model RO2 RO1 M2 M1 RO5 M5 RO3 M4 M3 M6 M7 M8 RO8 RO6 M9 RO7 RO9

  17. The dynamics • Individual and household: mainly endogeneous • Village as a “policy” maker: partly endogeneous and exogeneous • Region: that is the outside -> exogeneous

  18. The model dynamics: main loop • At each time step: • For all municipalities and reachable outside: • apply scenario: update jobs, services, land use, generate potential migrants • For all households (including migrants): • update household (age of individuals, location, house and activity, household structure) • For all municipalities: • update land use, houses, jobs and services (according to internal dynamics)

  19. State variables type R1 R2 … index index i1 h1 i2 h2 … … profile = « catégorie socio-professionnelle » activity = [status, activity nature, activity place], status: categories from labour survey including inactive, unemployed, student, retired… nb nR1 nR2 … age type a1 t1 t2 a2 … … Individuals ind lst profile p1 L1 L2 p2 … … house activit R1 ac1 R2 ac2 … … type = single, couple, single parent, other house = type of house Households type type type Lu1 S1 J1 Lu2 S2 J2 … … … surfac. nb in nb in nJ1 nS1 SLu1 nJ2 nS2 SLu2 … … … constr. nb ro nb ro nXS1 nXJ1 CLu1 nXJ2 CLu2 nXS2 … … … type = residential, industry, agriculture, forest, infrastructure (from CORINE) constraints = limit surfaces Land use type = flat or house, nb of rooms. Housing type = broad categories from surveys reachable outside = outside model municipalities accessible services. Services type = matching activities reachable outside = idem. Jobs Neighbour Municipalities Based on distance between municipalities ListNeighbourMunic State variables Examples

  20. State variables and scenarios type type R1 R1 R2 R2 … … index index index h1 i1 ix1 ix2 i2 h2 … … … Migrations from outside only nb Dnb DnR1 nR1 nR2 DnR2 … … age type age a1 t1 ax1 t2 ax2 a2 … … … profile profile ind lst p1 px1 L1 L2 px2 p2 … … … activit house activit acx1 R1 ac1 ac2 R2 acx2 … … … Migrations from outside only type type type type index type type hx1 J1 Lu1 S1 Lu1 J1 S1 Lu2 Lu2 S2 S2 J2 hx2 J2 … … … … … … … type surfac. nb in nb in Dnb in DS Dnb in tx1 DnS1 DnJ1 nS1 SLu1 DSLu1 nJ1 DSLu2 DnS2 SLu2 DnJ2 tx2 nS2 nJ2 … … … … … … … constr. Dnb ro Dnb ro nb ro DC nb ro ind lst nXS1 DCLu1 CLu1 nXJ1 Lx1 DnXJ1 DnXS1 CLu2 DCLu2 DnXJ2 Lx2 DnXS2 nXS2 nXJ2 … … … … … … … State variables Scenario Individuals Households Land use Houses Services Jobs Neighbour Municipalities ListNeighbourMunic DListNeighbourMunic

  21. Multi-level scenarios Regional scenario Applies to all municipalities of the region Municipality scenario Applies to only one municipality. Municipality set scenario Applies to a set of municipalities.

  22. Internal dynamics type R1 R2 … index index h1 i1 i2 h2 … … nb nR1 nR2 … type age t1 a1 t2 a2 … … ind lst profile p1 L1 p2 L2 … … house activit ac1 R1 ac2 R2 … … type type type J1 Lu1 S1 J2 S2 Lu2 … … … nb in surfac. nb in SLu1 nJ1 nS1 nS2 SLu2 nJ2 … … … nb ro constr. nb ro nXJ1 nXS1 CLu1 CLu2 nXJ2 nXS2 … … … State variables Dynamics all events – see details after Individuals split, merge, collapse, birth, move Households Land use Building of new houses by households Houses Creation – destruction of services connected with population density and distribution Services Jobs Creation – destruction of service jobs Neighbour Municipalities ListNeighbourMunic

  23. Rural individual endogeneous dynamics An individual ages. During its life, it: N°23

  24. Individual dynamics: Deciding looking for a job Labour survey

  25. Household dynamics: moving and working

  26. LISC agenda Conceive a conceptual model of a municipality Test and adapt it to the case study regions Conceive a conceptual model of the region, based on the one of municipality Extraction of prototypical dynamics at the pertinent level for a given process Evaluation of uncertainties on the possible futures given by the model Regular assessments of the model by stakeholders and extraction of their knowledge on the story basis.

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