1 / 33

Hidden Costs of Energy NRC: 2010

Hidden Costs of Energy NRC: 2010. Chris Field Carnegie Institution: Department of Global Ecology www.global-ecology.org. What are the real costs of energy?. Health Environment Conflict and security Infrastructure. What are the real costs of energy?. Unpriced components Production

joaquin-perez
Download Presentation

Hidden Costs of Energy NRC: 2010

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Hidden Costs of EnergyNRC: 2010 Chris Field Carnegie Institution: Department of Global Ecology www.global-ecology.org

  2. What are the real costs of energy? • Health • Environment • Conflict and security • Infrastructure

  3. What are the real costs of energy? • Unpriced components • Production • Distribution • Consumption

  4. What are the real costs of energy? • Reliance on foreign suppliers • Climate change

  5. What are the real costs of energy? • Congress Treasury NRC • Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology • Jared Cohon and Maureen Cropper, Chairs

  6. An externality • Externalities are optimally addressed by policy when marginal benefit = marginal cost • But some externality remains, even at this optimal level

  7. Not externalities • Market distortions • E.g. Monopoly, Monopsony • E.g. Competition with biofuels driving up the price of food

  8. Addressing externalities • Taxes • Transferrable permits • Performance standards • Technology-based standards • For efficiency, tax externality

  9. Importance of full life cycle

  10. The starting point EIA 2008

  11. By sector

  12. By end-user sector

  13. External costs • Market vs non-market components • WTP/WTA • VSL • Present versus future costs • Discounting • External benefits • CO2 fertilization

  14. Electricity

  15. Injuries

  16. Other electricity • Nuclear • Wind • PV • Biomass

  17. Transportation

  18. Heat

  19. Climate • Costs $1 to $100/ton of CO2 • Strongly dependent on context and individual decisions

  20. Summary:The “social cost” of carbon • Answer strongly dependent on • Present versus future: discount rate • Aggregate versus distributional effects: equity • Market versus non-market: world view • Concern about low-probability, high-consequence outcomes: odds playing

  21. 5 4 3 2 1 0 -0.6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -0.6 Increase in global mean temperature above 1990 level Distribution of Impacts Risks to Unique & Threatened Systems Risks of Extreme Weather Events Aggregate Impacts Risks of Large-scale Discontinuities Updated Reasons for Concern, 2009 Smith et al. PNAS 2009

  22. Conflict and security • Quantify?

  23. Conflict in Africa • Regression analysis: T & P vs conflict • ≥ 100 deaths in a year, at least one government • Range of lags and leads • Reconstitute with uncertainty in climate and in climate/conflict relationship Burke et al. PNAS 2009

  24. Burke et al. PNAS 2009

  25. Summary • Components very difficult to merge • External costs > $120 billion in 2005 • Opportunities for reducing externalities • Diverse generating/use technologies

  26. Climate • Range too big for clear quantification • Comparison to other impacts • Gas: climate > non-climate • Coal: climate > non-climate if damage ≥ $30/ton • Transportation: climate > non-climate if damage ≥ $30/ton

More Related