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Brad Hunter Chief Economist (561) 835-9235 (561) 573-8351. South Florida Housing Market Current Conditions and Forecast April 21, 2009. The Main Factor that is Keeping the Economy Depressed (Locally and Nationally)….?. Falling Home Prices
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Brad Hunter Chief Economist (561) 835-9235 (561) 573-8351 South Florida Housing Market Current Conditions and Forecast April 21, 2009
The Main Factor that is Keeping the Economy Depressed (Locally and Nationally)….? Falling Home Prices Talk about a double-edged sword! We want affordable market-priced housing, but it is a painful adjustment!
South Florida Housing Production is Effectively ZeroAbsorption Has Fallen Too
New Home Inventories Are Coming Down (which would normally relieve some downward price pressure)…
…But South Florida Job Losses Continue to Erode Incomes and Confidence
The Biggest Source of Downward Price Pressure 2009 and 2010? R.E.O.
Option-ARM Recasts will Trigger the Next Wave of Foreclosures in late 2009 Source: Business Week/Credit Suisse
11 Miami-Dade CountySingle Family Median Resale Home Prices ?
12 Broward CountySingle Family Median Resale Home Prices ?
13 Miami-Dade County vs. City of Miami Source: Wikipedia
14 Quarterly Condominium Starts: Miami-Dade County vs. City of Miami Note: Conversions Not Included
15 Condo Inventory Comparison: Miami-Dade County vs. City of Miami Note: Conversions Not Included
16 Quarterly Single Family Starts: Miami-Dade County vs. South Dade* * South of SW 184th Street
17 Single Family Finished Vacant Inventory: Miami-Dade County vs. South Dade
The Good Ole Days (Way back in 2004) • Projects sold out in a weekend • People camped out to be first in line • There was Panic Buying! • Same group of investors often rolled from one to the next • Some projects sold first 50% to investor groups who bought in bulk at a discounted day-one price
Condominium Units Started in Downtown Miami by Quarter The “Spike” represents sales from 2004/early 05…
About the Presenter Brad Hunter, Chief Economist/National Director of Consulting Brad Hunter spearheads Metrostudy’s current work with the investment community and national developer/builder clients. A large part of his work lately has been with private equity funds, hedge funds, and pension fund advisors. He supervises the bulk of the company’s multi-market studies, and has orchestrated hundreds of site-specific or area-specific housing market studies over the past twenty-plus years. Metrostudy is the nation’s premier advisor on local and regional housing market conditions. With 23 years worth of experience in real estate analysis and local market economic forecasting, Mr. Hunter is a Full Member of the Urban Land Institute, has authored numerous articles and book chapters for ULI, including Market Profiles, and serves on the Housing Market Forecast Panel for the Housing Market Report. He is regularly cited in local and national journals, and has recently been featured in the Wall Street Journal and on Bloomberg News (including Bloomberg’s “On the Money” and “On the Economy” radio shows). He graduated in 1985 from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania with a degree in economics and has been a guest lecturer at Harvard University. Hunter is a speaker at conferences on real estate opportunities and investing, as well as at ULI conferences, and is frequently called upon by key regulatory agencies of the U.S. government for his insights on the housing sector. Hunter has tracked and forecast housing markets and demographic/economic trends at the local level for 23 years.
