Evidence based drug policy? ….. Not yet in Italy

1. Consiglio italiano per le Scienze Sociali Evidencebaseddrug policy?…..Notyet in Italy Carla Rossi IllicitDrug Market Institute e Consiglio Italiano per le Scienze Sociali 12 ottobre 2010, Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi, Milano

2. After the whitebooks CSS and IDM… • EU projects: • New methodologicaltoolsfor policy and programmeevaluation (February 2011-February 2013) • Study on the further analysis of the EU illicit drugs market and responses to it – responding to future challenges (September 2011-November 2012)

3. Evidences • Severalnew data baseshavebeenacquired and newmethodsofanalysishavebeendeveloped in the frameworkof the two EU projects. • Thesenewtoolsallowassessment and evaluationofdrugpolicies and interventions. • Variousdifferentapproacheshavebeencompared: Italian, Portuguese, Czech, Swedish, Dutch. • Some “best practices” can beidentified.

4. The sizeof the Italian market • First the sizeof the hiddenpopulationofstreetdealershasbeenestimated on the basisoftwodifferent data bases: the data base of the personsregisteredfordealing and the data base of the personsincarceratedfordrugdealing (in bothcases the individualsbreached art. 73 of the druglaw). The referenceto the varioussubstanceswaspossibleusing the information on policeoperations and seizuresprovidedby the Directorateof Anti DrugServices (DCSA). • From the two data basesquitesimilarestimateshavebeenobtained.

5. Estimates of the size of the dealers population

6. Estimates from the prison population data set Zelterman estimate for 2007 from the other data set was: 374,541 and Chaowas: 372,613 For 2008 Zeltermanwas: 387,648 and Chaowas: 385,940 Estimatesfromprison data set are inside the confidenceintervalsof the estimatesfrom the other data set.

7. Adjustments • Part time dealing (from literature 6 months a year); • Different capture rates per substance (seizure data and literature); • Dealer population not at risk for only cannabis dealing (from literature).

8. Consumer population estimation

9. Market estimation (supply side)

10. Market estimation (demand side)

11. Estimation of the cannabis market from other sources (Transcrime) • Transcrime estimates of consumers: 7,280,000 • 50% occasional, • 21% regular, • 29% intensive • Average number of doses per month=12 • Price per dose (average)=10 euro • Estimate of the cannabis market= 7,280,000*10*12 *12 billion euro=10.483.

12. Estimationof the cannabis market fromothersources(Study on the further analysis of the EU illicit drugs market and responses to it – responding to future challenges) • Estimatesofconsumers:5,173,200 • 55% occasional(50%) • 23% regular (21%) • 22% intensive (29%) • Averagegramsconsumed per year • Occasional: 7.9 • Regular: 107.4 • Intensive: 352.3 • Total valueof the market= 5,173,200(0.55*7.9+0.23*107.4+352.3*0.22)*10=5.512 billion euro (6.656 billion euro)

13. Interception rate (Italy 2011) Interception rate forcannabis= 19.32% (withplants) Intercepton rate forcannabis= 5.35% (withoutplants)

14. Age at onset of cannabis use and problem drug use • Itisoftenmentionedthatstartingearlierconsumingdrugs (forabout 75% the first drugusedis cannabis) is a riskfactorfor the useof more harmfulsubstances. • Wehad the possibilitytoanalysetwodifferentsetsof data: the data from the surveyamongPDUs and the web-survey on cannabis users (mostly non problematic) and to compare the proportionsof first useof cannabis before 15 yearsofagefor Italy andPortugal.

15. CAST scores for the web-survey (7=moderate dep; 12=severe dep)

16. ODD’S RATIO

17. Remarks • Lawenforcementinterventionsseemsto produce quitenegligibledamagesto the drugtraffickers. Hsiisalsoconfirmedby the stable or decreasingbehaviourof the prices. • New and newsubstances are offered on the market. Thesesubstances are notillicituntiltheir • Effects are notassessed. In the first monthsof 2012 more than 100 newsubstneshavebeendetected. • Whatabout the outcomesofless repressive policiessuchas the Portugueseone? Isittruethatthisapproachmightpush more young people to star consuming?

18. Incidence indicators • Indicators based on incidence are the most appropriate for evaluation of policies and interventions. • It is generally recognised that early use of cannabis is associated with higher risk of harmful use of other substances. • Thus it is important to estimate incidence of cannabis use among teenagers. This can be obtained by combining various sources of information.

19. Estimating incidence from prevalence • Denote by g(a) the density function and G(a) the (cumulative) distribution function of the age at first use of a specific substance. • Denote by P(a,t) the prevalence of users aged a at time t. • The expected number of subjects of the population P(a,t) who started using that substance at time t is denoted by I(a,t).

20. Estimating incidence from prevalence • I(a,t) can be estimated by multiplying the prevalence P(a,t) by the probability of onset at age a g(a) given that the age at onset is not higher than a G(a):

21. P(a,t), G(a), g(a) and I(a,t) among teenagers in Italy (2012)

22. About incidence • Overall the incident cases among teenagers aged 15-19 are about 17% of the prevalent cases. • I(15,t)/P(15,t)>0.5 is the highest value and corresponds to the mode of the onset age distribution. • The minimum value of the ratio is for a=19: • I(19,t)/P(19,t)<0.05.

23. Example: estimate for Portugal

24. Remarks • In the case ofPortugal the ratioincidence/prevalenceforages 15-18 is 0.28. • Ifages 15-18 are consideredfor Italy, the ratiois 0.22. • The differenceis due to the onsetagedistributions. • In Italy the proportionofthosewho start before 15 ishigherthan in Portugal (22% versus 21% formales and 20% versus 13% forfemales).

25. White books • AA.VV., “Actupon the market tofight the illicitdrugindustry”, IDM editions, 2010. • Rey G.A., Rossi C., Zuliani A., “Il mercato delle droghe: dimensione, protagonisti, politiche”, Marsilio Editori, Venezia, 2011.

26. Comments, questions? Thank you very much