Moving toward Decision-Making as a Central Focus

1. Moving toward Decision-Making as a Central Focus Susi Moser (ESIG) Other Core Collaborators: Lisa Dilling Linda Mearns

2. WCIAS Strategy • Filling critical gaps in weather and climate impact assessment science • Developing integrating methodology • Moving toward decision-making as a centerpiece • Promoting integration of assessment science activities at NCAR, nationally and internationally

3. Overview • Decision-making in the WCAI – An Evolutionary Perspective • Moving Toward Decision-Making as the Central Focus • DUST • Future Directions

4. Evolutionary Perspective • Intentions: • Produce science of high societal value • Make uncertainties in weather/climate assessments more transparent to decision-makers (quantify, characterize, communicate) • Assess the feasibility of an end-to-endcharacterization of uncertainty (i.e., from global climate model to decision-making) • From providing decision support to also examining the decision process…

5. Extremes statistics Safety control Information need Weather Extremes in Aviation

6. Climate & Climate Change Physical Hydrology • Decisions • Sykes Reservoir • FERC Relicensing • Conjunctive Use • System Operations Integrated Decision Support Watershed Management Credibility Relevance Socio-Economics Legitimacy • Decision-Makers • CALFED • State Assembly • Cal. Water Dept. • Others Ecosystem Services California Water Resources Project

7. Weather and climate research (NCAR, NOAA, Universities) Federal agencies (e.g., FEMA, NFIP, NWS, Army Corps) Scientific & Technical Information Rules Regulations Advice Conditional $ State and Regional flood management agencies Private sector consultants Local floodplain administration Front Range Flood Management Local needs Political and economic constraints

8. Perception of risk and uncertainty? Information needs? Retrofitting decisions Information needs? Code changes Decision Model WILDFIRE INITIATIVE Wildfire Project • CLIMATE • VARIABILITY • drought • “fire-weather” Homeowners & Local planners

9. Mitigation Decision-Making (Assessment of needs, decision entry points, institutional constraints, politics etc.) Adaptation Toward Decision-making as a Central Focus For WCIAS projects where decision-making matters….

10. DUST– The DecisionUncertaintyScreeningTool • Purpose • Integrative link between physical sciences, uncertainty analyses, and decision- and policy-making • Procedure to identify where and how science can most effectively support decision-making • Systematic approach to determining where and when uncertainty matters

11. DUST–A stepwise, iterative attempt at improving the science/decision-maker interaction • Premises • Decision-maker and decision-making are central • Scientific information can be an important input into decision-making • No assumption about best way to make decisions under conditions of uncertainty • No preference for a “top-down” or “bottom-up” approach to assessments • Objectives • For all kinds of decisions • For a variety of decision-making contexts • For a range of decision-makers • Applicable at a variety of scales

12. Step 1: Identify the stage in the decision process where climate science can enter

13. Science Decision-making (A) Science • Credibility • Legitimacy • Usefulness • Relevance • Compatibility • Accessibility • Receptivity Decision-making (B) Step 2: Ensure that scientific input is useful, credible, and legitimate

14. Step 3: Identify the type of decision problem decision-makers face OPTIMIZATION – EVALUATION – ROBUST ADAPTIVE PLANNING Step 4: Identify the specific decision challenge • A three-dimensional typology of climate-sensitive decisions • Optimization/Evaluation • Near-/Long-term • One-time/Sequential Step 5: Identify necessary uncertainty analyses Step 6: Conduct identified uncertainty analyses

15. Familiarity Format Link back to decision problem Explanation of uncertainties Coordination Keep others informed of what they need to know, without overburdening them with unnecessary information Good Communication Information Who needs to know what Accuracy Wrong information may be worse than none at all Timeliness Avoid confusion by delivering message/ data on time Confirmation Make sure they right people have the information they need Step 7: Communicate uncertainties back to the decision-maker

16. Expected Outcomes • Streamlining and prioritization of uncertainty assessment • Greater transparency and awareness • Educational for scientists (and beginning scholars, students of applied science) • Educational for decision-makers • Boundary object Credibility Relevance Legitimacy

17. Using DUST to Move Forward… • DUST: educational, screening tool, a heuristic • Informs the interpretation of, and learning from, past projects • Informs the development of future research projects

18. Future Directions • NCAR-RISA Collaboration • Workshop to establish linkages in FY05 • Communication of Uncertainty to Decision-Makers • Collaboration with DMUU at RAND Corp. • Feasibility Limits of Adaptation Strategies to Sea-Level rise • Project development during early FY05 • Comparative case study approach • Multi-disciplinary collaboration • Decision-making at the Climate–Health Interface • Heat waves • Air quality management • Scales of decision-making • Carbon flux • Water resource management • Societal use of weather information