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Author: M árton Varga 27/01/2012

“ Will I Ever? ” : Estimating the Probability and Speed of Progression to the Consequent Childbirth. Author: M árton Varga 27/01/2012. Can we predict their childbearing decisions?. QUESTIONS. DATA and METHODOLOGY. How many children will women have?. When do they give birth?.

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Author: M árton Varga 27/01/2012

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  1. “Will I Ever?”:Estimating the Probability and Speed of Progression to the Consequent Childbirth Author: Márton Varga 27/01/2012

  2. Can we predict their childbearing decisions?

  3. QUESTIONS DATA and METHODOLOGY • How many children will women have? • When do they give birth? • Main source: Fertility and Family Survey • Sample: 5484 Portuguese women (1947-79) • Technique: Split-population survival estimation

  4. Education MAIN RESULTS Siblings • Education leads to delayed childbearing and a longer interval between the second and third birth. University graduates are more likely to have the third child. • More siblings are associated with a higher probability of having the second child. • Younger cohorts are more likely to postpone childbearing, to remain childless, and to have fewer children. Age at birth Other Economy Cohort • Changes in the unemployment rate and childcare availability do not influence fertility timing. • Mothers, who were older at their last delivery, have a lower probability of the consequent birth, but they wait less if they decide to have another child. • 10% remain childless, 30 % stop at one child, while 70% stop at two children.

  5. MOTIVATION

  6. FIGURE 1. KAPLAN MEIER SURVIVAL ESTIMATES Note: Duration is measured from the age of 14 and from the 3rd quarter after the last birth.

  7. Important THE SPLIT-POPULATION MODEL

  8. Education Siblings Economy Cohort

  9. Education Siblings Age at birth Economy Cohort

  10. Education Siblings Age at birth Economy Cohort

  11. 70.4% stop at two children Probability of stop at two children 33.9% Probability of stop at two children 81.7% Probability of stop at two children 86.3%

  12. FINAL REMARKS • Results are robust • Results are plausible • Deserves more investigation

  13. Thank you for the attention!

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