1 / 13

Predicting Childbearing Patterns: Exploring Factors Influencing Fertility Decisions

This study by Márton Varga delves into the estimation of childbirth probability and timing, focusing on factors like education, siblings, age at birth, and economy. Analyzing data from Portuguese women, the research highlights how education can influence delayed childbearing and the likelihood of having a third child, while the number of siblings affects the probability of having a second child. It also discusses how younger cohorts tend to postpone childbearing and have fewer children. The study finds that changes in unemployment rates and childcare availability do not impact fertility timing significantly. With 10% remaining childless and varying proportions stopping after one or two children, this research provides valuable insights into predicting childbearing decisions. Results from the split-population survival estimation model are robust and call for further investigation into this intriguing area of study.

joel-hewitt
Download Presentation

Predicting Childbearing Patterns: Exploring Factors Influencing Fertility Decisions

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. “Will I Ever?”:Estimating the Probability and Speed of Progression to the Consequent Childbirth Author: Márton Varga 27/01/2012

  2. Can we predict their childbearing decisions?

  3. QUESTIONS DATA and METHODOLOGY • How many children will women have? • When do they give birth? • Main source: Fertility and Family Survey • Sample: 5484 Portuguese women (1947-79) • Technique: Split-population survival estimation

  4. Education MAIN RESULTS Siblings • Education leads to delayed childbearing and a longer interval between the second and third birth. University graduates are more likely to have the third child. • More siblings are associated with a higher probability of having the second child. • Younger cohorts are more likely to postpone childbearing, to remain childless, and to have fewer children. Age at birth Other Economy Cohort • Changes in the unemployment rate and childcare availability do not influence fertility timing. • Mothers, who were older at their last delivery, have a lower probability of the consequent birth, but they wait less if they decide to have another child. • 10% remain childless, 30 % stop at one child, while 70% stop at two children.

  5. MOTIVATION

  6. FIGURE 1. KAPLAN MEIER SURVIVAL ESTIMATES Note: Duration is measured from the age of 14 and from the 3rd quarter after the last birth.

  7. Important THE SPLIT-POPULATION MODEL

  8. Education Siblings Economy Cohort

  9. Education Siblings Age at birth Economy Cohort

  10. Education Siblings Age at birth Economy Cohort

  11. 70.4% stop at two children Probability of stop at two children 33.9% Probability of stop at two children 81.7% Probability of stop at two children 86.3%

  12. FINAL REMARKS • Results are robust • Results are plausible • Deserves more investigation

  13. Thank you for the attention!

More Related