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Brunswick Region Community Audit

Brunswick Region Community Audit. Planning Decisions Presentation To the Coastal Counties Workforce Board and the Defense Employment and Transitions Steering Committee March 16, 2006. Part I: Overview. Purpose of Community Audit. Focus on Workforce impacts of Base closing Connect the dots

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Brunswick Region Community Audit

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  1. Brunswick Region Community Audit Planning Decisions Presentation To the Coastal Counties Workforce Board and the Defense Employment and Transitions Steering Committee March 16, 2006

  2. Part I: Overview

  3. Purpose of Community Audit • Focus on Workforce impacts of Base closing • Connect the dots • Impacts • Economy • Workforce • Training system • Community supports • Provide understanding as basis for strategy development

  4. Consultant Military family survey Interviews with growing businesses Interviews with impacted businesses Other primary sources MDOL contractor survey MDOL civilian worker survey MDOL job profile study State Planning Office impact analysis Secondary sources Census MDOL data Midcoast Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy Base housing study Sources of information

  5. Level of uncertainty • Precision at this early date is unattainable • Base, business, individual plans are still being set • Research still going on • But big picture can be described • Enough to shape strategic thinking

  6. Nature of event: mill and base closing compared

  7. Base Closing More Warning Secondary impacts can be greater than direct job loss impacts Valuable resources left for community to redevelop Mill closing More sudden Direct job loss impacts usually greater than secondary effects Old mill usually less marketable, less community input Base and mill closings

  8. Phases of closing/redevelopment

  9. The complication ofBath Iron Works • Major private employer in region • Caught in “production gap” between DDG-51 and DDX • Creates challenge for regional economy, job training – even before BNAS closes

  10. Part II: Closure Impacts

  11. The range of effects • Direct job losses • Secondary jobs • Retail • Small businesses • Housing • Schools • Workforce • Retirement industry • Developable land

  12. The sequence of direct job losses

  13. Serious effects not felt until 2010

  14. Secondary job loss greater than direct civilian job loss

  15. $129 million in consumer spending by military leaving region -- $80 million in Bath-Brunswick stores

  16. Base housing available 750 family units 512 single person units 1,600 depart private market $14 million in rent and mortgage payments gone Short term problem Housing disinvestment Long term opportunity Affordable housing stock Attract young workers from Greater Portland Effect on the housing market

  17. Some small businesses impacted Sample of interviews revealed: • Established, higher end Brunswick retailers/restaurants – under 3% of sales • Service and retail, especially oriented to young market – 5% to 20% of sales • Businesses catering to Base – 50% + of sales

  18. How to help small business Business managers told us they could use: • Market research • Information on financial assistance • Information on what is happening on the Base Most businesses optimistic about the future

  19. Effect on schools • Over 1,000 elementary secondary students going • Embry-Riddle Aeronautics will lose 90% of students • Southern New Hampshire University will lose 30% of students • University College in Bath will lose 20% of students • Southern Maine Community College will lose less than 10%

  20. Impact on the workforce • 700 military spouses work in the community • 2/3 full time • Another 700 are caregivers, or in school, or otherwise engaged

  21. Long-term effect on retirees • 3 out of 4 men over age 65 in region are veterans • Military retirees important to the workforce, the housing sector, and retail sector • 1 in 5 military at BNAS would like to stay in or retire in area • BNAS exposed thousands to the midcoast over the years – will be a loss to tourism, retirement industries

  22. But closure also offers a major asset of land and infrastructure to the private economy

  23. In short, closure is both a short-term problem and a long-term opportunity Now we will look at the context of the area economy and workforce in more depth

  24. Part III: Business and Industry

  25. BNAS workers live close by

  26. Bath 504 Wiscasset 174 Brunswick 407 Auburn 172 Lewiston 336 Richmond 152 Topsham 252 Bowdoin 139 Woolwich 209 Gardiner 135 BIW workers come from a wider area 2006 Total County ANDROSCOGGIN 1,076 CUMBERLAND 966 134 All Other FRANKLIN 26 HANCOCK 2 KENNEBEC 794 115 KNOX 113 LINCOLN 651 OXFORD 89 PENOBSCOT 2 794 PISCATAQUIS 1 SAGADAHOC 1,661 SOMERSET 75 WALDO 54 WASHINGTON 0 1,076 YORK 72 764 Top 10 Cities and Towns 72 2,627

  27. Impact area for study • Primary impact area Brunswick, Bath, and surrounding towns • Secondary impact area to east, north, and west • Portland affected, but because of size of economy, effect not as great

  28. Bath-Brunswick employment in 2004

  29. The importance of 4 key employers • Area is heavily dependent on 4 key employers for about a quarter of all jobs • Example of their importance -- area median income is $33,000 with Bath Iron Works, and $29,000 without it

  30. Issue at Bath Iron Works • BIW in between ships – finishing production of DDG-51, doing design for DDX • No construction scheduled for DDX before 2009 • BIW has slowly laid off production workers in 2004-5 • High-paying jobs hard to replace

  31. Businesses still investing • New Target, Lowe’s stores open • The Highlands at Topsham continues to grow • Bowdoin College continues to invest and expand • Mid Coast Fiber, Mainely Knobs, Applecart Press, Disk Media, and others expanding

  32. Cluster of composite materials businesses in area – BIW, Harbor Technologies, BTI, Hodgdon Yachts, Monolite Composites, Tex Tech Industries North Star Alliance designed to help these businesses grow Composite materials offers the promise of a new growth sector

  33. In summary... • The region has strengths in defense, real estate, education, health, and retail – but is heavily dependent on a few employers • Composites offers a potential growth sector for the future • Aviation-related uses at the Base may offer additional growth opportunities – but it is too early to say what kind

  34. Part IV: The Workforce

  35. 6 of 7 in official labor force

  36. Brunswick labor force is relatively young (2000 Census)

  37. January 2006 Employment

  38. Bath-Brunswick labor force has more education (2000 Census)

  39. Good computer skills (2 of 3 employers say it easy to find computer-knowledgeable staff) Committed to lifelong learning (47% plan to go back to school in coming years) Half of new hires need basic skill remediation – math, writing, etc. Some young employees lack “work skills,” reliability Strengths and weaknesses, according to local employers

  40. Civilian workers at BNAS • Older – over half are 45 to 64 • Less formal education – 62% HS only • In protective services, administrative support, maintenance, personal services occupations • Make about regional average wage -- $32,000

  41. Outlook for BNAS workers mixed • The job outlook in Maine to 2012 is for faster-than-average job growth in 7 of the 8 primary occupational groups in which BNAS civilians work • But it may be hard to get comparable wages -- in 29 of top 41 occupations, wages at BNAS higher than same job elsewhere in Maine

  42. Many BNAS workers interested in help for a career shift

  43. Outlook for laid-off BIW workers is more challenging • Of 16 job types in recent layoff, only 2 were in fields expected to grow in Maine in next seven years • For 7 of the 16 types, BIW salary ranges much higher than state averages • Experience to date – BIW workers salaries decrease by 17% when they move to a new employer

  44. But there are related occupations that workers can transfer to • BIW workers qualified to shift into high-demand occupations • Current training in: • Electrical • Carpentry • Machine tool • Nursing • Computer repair • Business management • Associate engineer

  45. Most job impacts will be in retail sector But this sector has 1,000 jobs (25%) turn over per year already Retail chains continue to invest in area – so effect may be slower growth, not absolute loss Workforce challenges Help small business owners to start and grow retail businesses Create career paths from sales to management in the retail sector Retail workers will be affected

  46. In summary... • Local workforce has many strengths • But some young and new workers lack “job-ready” skills • BIW and BNAS workers have an interest in retraining and new careers – especially since current jobs may not pay as much on outside • Workers are qualified to shift into careers that support local economic growth, like composites and construction

  47. Part IV: Training Capacity

  48. The area has job growth potential... It has workers needing retraining... Does it also have the capacity to meet the need?

  49. Three levels of capacity • The Public Education system • Higher Education • Public and private training resources

  50. Brunswick Bath SAD 75: Topsham, Bowdoin, Harpswell, Bowdoinham Voc 10: Brunswick, Topsham Bath Regional Voc Center Merrymeeting Adult Ed Bath Adult Ed Will lose 1,000 students from a total of 8,400 – and nearly $1 million in federal aid Effect on public schools

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