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2009 NAFTA Mexico Sugar Update & Prospects for Growth Pedro L. Figueroa ED&F MAN SUGAR, INC. E. D. & F. MAN – At a glance…. British company originating back - Established 1783 Global leading supplier Sugar, Coffee, Cocoa, Molasses, Cane Ethanol, Bio-Fuels
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2009 NAFTA Mexico Sugar Update & Prospects for Growth Pedro L. Figueroa ED&F MAN SUGAR, INC.
E. D. & F. MAN – At a glance…. British company originating back - Established 1783 Global leading supplier Sugar, Coffee, Cocoa, Molasses, Cane Ethanol, Bio-Fuels Recognized branded Industrial client base Logistical and marketing link for growers Reliable uninterrupted supply of high quality product for manufacturers +5,000 employees worldwide in over 75 countries • British company originating back - Established 1783 • Global leading supplier Sugar, Coffee, Cocoa, Molasses, Cane Ethanol, Bio-Fuels • Recognized branded Industrial client base • Logistical and marketing link for growers • Reliable uninterrupted supply of high quality product for manufacturers • +5,000 employees worldwide in over 75 countries • Annual Revenues: US$ 8B
NAFTA 2009: The Current Picture, Part I (US) Source: WASDE - USDA, Office of the Chief Economist
NAFTA 2009: The Apparent Picture, Part II (Mexico) Beginning Stocks: 940k MT Production: 5,350k MT Imports: 140k MT Total Supply: 6,430k MT Consumption: 4,900k MT Exports: 750k MT Ending Stocks: 780k MT Total: 6,430k MT
MXN Demise – The Peso Story • Relative stability trading between 10 – 11 during 07/08 • Significant USD strength Q4 08 through 1Q 09 – 30% devaluation • USD expected to remain strong against other currencies on the back of USD repatriation and Euro/Sterling weakness
Mexican Sugar Exports & Projections • Exports to US for 07/08 at 0.5MMT • Exports projected to rise to between 700KMT – 800KMT in 08/09 • Sales to US driven by stronger returns in Pesos
Mexican Domestic Prices (Aug 08) Ex-Mill Purchase MXN/50kg USD/Mt Refined 285 542.85 Estandar 240 457.14 Mexican Domestic Prices (Feb 09) Ex-Mill Purchase MXN/50kg USD/Mt Refined 305 428.07 Estandar 250 350.87 • Increase in domestic prices on the back of weaker Peso • Export Refined Values app. $510-$520, Estandar $385-$395/MT Ex Mill
Logistics & Q.C. – Key to the Export Program Bulk Rail Transfer Capabilities – Fixed Asset Investment (Mexico) Foodservice Packaging Format, Specialty Sugars, Blends Health & Food Safety/Accreditations Rail vs. Maritime Freight Flexibility Warehousing/Carry/Distribution
2009 Summary: What to expect…. Exports: +750k MT forecasted Refined vs. Non-refined imports Further consolidation in Mexico √ - Currency volatility Improved Logistics Enhanced QC Methods Closer to production marketing Wider array - products Closer transparency between Mexican & US standards Reliable & continued consistency in supply