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Adapting Florida’s Affordable Housing Needs Assessment Methodology to Developing Countries: the Case of Brazil

Adapting Florida’s Affordable Housing Needs Assessment Methodology to Developing Countries: the Case of Brazil. Joseli Macedo William J. O’Dell Marc T. Smith University of Florida Shimberg Center for Affordable Housing. Demand tenure age of head of household size of household

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Adapting Florida’s Affordable Housing Needs Assessment Methodology to Developing Countries: the Case of Brazil

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  1. Adapting Florida’s Affordable Housing Needs Assessment Methodology to Developing Countries: the Case of Brazil Joseli Macedo William J. O’Dell Marc T. Smith University of Florida Shimberg Center for Affordable Housing

  2. Demand tenure age of head of household size of household income of household cost burden Supply housing inventory seasonal occupancy vacancies Basic Dimensions of Original Model

  3. Population Projections and Headship Rates Population by Age (two decennial Census) Population Projections by Age Number of Householders by Age and Tenure Cross-tabulations income of household size of household cost burden Original Methodology

  4. Adaptation Process • definition of land and house tenure • definition of adequate shelter, adequate infrastructure • definition of family

  5. Concepts affecting adaptation • informality vs. formality • adequacy of shelter • standard and substandard conditions • tenure as a measure of security

  6. population projections household formation rates tenure age of head of household size of household income of household Demand Data . Brazil Model

  7. Brazilian Census land ownership: 3 housing unit: 6 settlement type: 50+ infrastructure: sewer and indoor plumbing Premises lack of land title does not constitute a housing need no-cash renters others & improvised = substandard Tenure Typology

  8. Florida Model owners renters Brazil Model owners standard owners substandard renters standard renters substandard Tenure Typology

  9. Age Groups 15 – 24 years old 25 – 34 years old 35 – 44 years old 45 – 54 years old 55 – 64 years old over 65 years old cultural differences “late-stayers” Age of Head of Household

  10. Brazilian Census family household Definitions extended family multiple families choice vs. need secondary families Household Typology

  11. Size of household one to two persons three persons four persons five or more persons Premises very few one-person households shared households overcrowding constitutes a housing need Household Typology

  12. Florida Model jurisdiction medians Brazil Model monthly minimum wage (m.m.w.) housing programs low-income majority Income categories less than 1 m.m.w. 1 to 1.99 m.m.w. 2 to 2.99 m.m.w. 3 to 5.99 m.m.w. 6 to 11.99 m.m.w. over 12 m.m.w. Income

  13. housing inventory occupied dwellings seasonal units vacant units unqualified data group quarters Supply Data

  14. Needs Assessment • needed to accommodate projected number of families • total number of dwelling units: • distributed by type, tenure and rent value, according to family income

  15. Population projections 2000: 170 million 2010: 190 million 2020: 211 million Household Projections 45 million households (2000 Census) 47 million households (“spin-offs”) 70 million households by 2020 Brazil Model . Projections

  16. 2000 housing stock: 51.6 million units 74% owners 52% standard 26% renters 55% standard 33% of households with 5 + persons 7% of householders under 25 years old 25% between 35 - 44 13% older than 65 46% of households earn less than 3 m.m.w. 12% less than 1 m.m.w. Brazil Model . Housing Profile

  17. Observations • constant income across age categories • households with one or two persons have the highest income • constant ratio of owners to renters across age categories • higher percentage of standard owners as householders age

  18. Proportion of Owners to Renters and Standard to Substandard Units by Age Group, Brazil, 2000

  19. US as householders age, income, household size and rate of ownership increase Brazil income and rate of ownership are constant across age categories Comparative Analysis culture education professional opportunities informal economy

  20. Observations • households with higher incomes, regardless of age, have more access to ownership and are more likely to occupy standard housing • 66% earning less than 3 m.m.w. live in substandard conditions • 82% earning more than 12 m.m.w. live in standard conditions • vacancy rates are much higher than expected (12.7%)

  21. Projected Number of Households and Construction Need, Brazil million

  22. Projections for 2020 • tenure and condition of household • 14.9 million additional owner-occupied households • 5.1 million additional renter-occupied households • 10.7 million additional standard households • 9.3 million additional substandard households

  23. Projected Number of Households by Tenure, Brazil, 2003 to 2020

  24. Projections for 2020 • households with one or two persons will increase by 44% • 2.3 million additional households will earn less than 1 m.m.w. • 9 million additional households will earn less than 3 m.m.w. • 28 million additional units if vacancy rate remains at 12.7%

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