Impact of AI on Services Industry

1. Impact of AI on Services Industry Raj Reddy Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213 Keynote Speech at the 2018 IEEE World Congress on Services San Francisco, July 3, 2018

2. Myths and Misconceptions About AI • Lot of Hype • Based on Mistaken Assumptions • AI will replace humans • AI will Kill Us • Enslave Us • Lead to Loss of Jobs

3. AI Revisited

4. What is AI? • AI is an attempt to automate tasks that are usually though to be uniquely Human • Requiring Intelligence, Intuition, Creativity, Innovation, Emotion, Empathy • Usually Human coding using Heuristics, Rules, and • Statistical Models - HMMs • Non Sequential Algorithms • Early Attempts • Attempts to Solve Problem not Expressible as Classical Algorithms • Proving Theorems, Playing Chess • Understand Language, Speech, Images • Create Robots that Sense Think and Act • Later Systems attempted • Compose music, Painting • Automate trading in Stock Market • Usually leads to Imperfect Solutions • OCR error rates 99% • 2010 Flash Crash: Dow Lost 1000 points in 36 minutes

5. AI In 20th Century: Use of Knowledge in Problem Solving • An Intelligent System must • Learns from Experience • Use Vast Amount of Knowledge • Tolerate Error and Ambiguity • Respond in Real Time • Communicate with Humans using Natural Language • Search Compensates for Lack of Knowledge • Puzzles • Knowledge Compensates for Lack of Search • F=ma; E = mc2 • Traditional Sources of Knowledge • Formal Knowledge: Learnt in Schools and Universities • Books, Manuals, • Informal Knowledge: Heuristics from Peoples • Human Encoding of Knowledge • Expert Systems • Knowledge Based Systems • Rule Based Systems

6. Major Breakthroughs in AI of the 20th Century • Enabled by Brute-force, Heuristics, Human Coding of Rules and Knowledge, and Simple Machine Learning (Pattern Recognition) • World Champion Chess Machine • IBM Deep Blue • Mathematical Discovery • Proof Checkers • Accident Avoiding Car • CMU: No Hands Across America • Robotics • Manufacturing Automation • Disaster Rescue Robots • Speech Recognition Systems • Dictation Machine • Computer Vision and Image Processing • Medical Image Processing • Expert Systems • Rule Based Systems • Knowledge Based Systems

7. AI in 21st Century: Discover and Use Data Driven Knowledge Sources • Paradigm Shift in Science • First 3 Paradigms: Experiment, Theory, Simulation • Rutherford, Bohr, Oppenheimer • 4th Paradigm: Data Driven Science • Create Next Generation AI systems • Data Driven AI systems • To Solve Previously Unsolved Problems • Previously Unavailable Sources of Data • Knowledge from Big Data: • Data Driven Learning of Models and Algorithms • Knowledge from Multiple (Cross) Media: • Social Media Intelligence Gathering • From All Language Sources • From All the Media: Text, Speech, Image and Video • Knowledge from Crowd Intelligence: • Global Brain: from Individual Intelligence to Collective Intelligence • Knowledge from Augmented Intelligence: • Human-Machine Hybrid Intelligence for Collaborative Problem Solving • Knowledge from Unmanned Autonomous Vehicles: • Intelligence from Collaborating Teams of Robots • Automatic Discovery of New Knowledge • Machine Learning using Big Data • Deep Learning

8. Major Breakthroughs in AI in 21st Century • Enabled by Big Data and Machine Learning • Language Translation • Google Translate: Any Language to Any Language • Speech to Speech Dialog • Siri, Cortana, Alexa • Autonomous Vehicles • CMU, Stanford, Google, Tesla • Deep Question Answering • IBM’s Watson • Robo Soccer • World Champion Poker • CMU Libratus • No Limit Texas Hold’em Poker

9. The Services Industry

10. AI and Services Industry • The Services Industry Consists of Different Sectors • Human Intensive Tasks such as Managed Services, • Product Development Tasks such as Software, Hardware, and Chip Development • XaaSservices such as IaaS, PaaS, and SaaS. • Each Service Sectors can benefit from • Continuous Monitoring of Activity, • Analysis of Activity, • Understanding of Activity, • Anomaly Detection, and • Repair or Restore of the System. • The Sense-Think-Act Paradigm of AI • central to all AI enabled applications • can also be useful in the services sector. • AI Based Intelligent Assistants can be used to • automate routine aspects of a task, • usually leading to improved productivity of 20 to 80%.

11. Cognition Amplifiers and Guardian Angels

12. Cognition Amplifiers and Guardian Angelsin Service Sector • Cognition Amplifiers and Guardian Angels are two families of Intelligent Agents that can help with Service Industry Productivity • A Cognition Amplifier (COG) is a Personal Enduring Autonomic Intelligent Agent that anticipates what you want to do and helps you to do it with less effort • A Guardian Angel (GAT) is a Personal Enduring Autonomic Intelligent Agent that Discovers And Warns You About Unanticipated Events That Could Impact Your Safety, Security, and Happiness

13. Cognition Amplifiers and Guardian Angels • Cognition Amplifiers are personalized and mass customized agents as part of KaaS, Knowledge as a Service • A Cognition Amplifier is a personal enduring autonomic intelligent agent that anticipates what a service provider is trying to do and assists in completing the task with less effort. • Buying and selling: Transact with multiple providers • Email: Filter spam, understand and respond to actionable email • News: Based on topic preferences, novelty, collaborative filtering • Banking: Monitor bank account, Credit Cards, Pay Bills • Travel: Flights, hotel, schedule disruptions, cancellations • Guardian Angelsare personalized and mass customized agents as part of KaaS for • Just-in-Time Warnings: Hurricanes, Earthquakes, Extreme Weather • Act as Coach in Health and Education Matters • Accident Alerts and Rerouting; Transport Strikes • Scarcity of Essential Resources: Food, Energy, Water etc. • Assume Every Service Worker has Hundreds of Personalized Cognition Amplifiers (COGs) and Guardian Angels (GATs)

14. Steps in Creating Cogs and Gats • Guardian Angel Apps Dedicated to each Task for each Person • To Create COGs and GATs in Service Industry, We Need to Collect (Big) Data from Every Service Worker • Time, Location (GPS), Accelerometers, Barometers, Microphones and Cameras • GigaBytes Per Person Every Day • Monitor, Diagnose, and Apply Cycle For Each Service Worker • Activity Monitoring enables • Discovery of Intention which enables • Cognition Amplifiers (COGs) and Guardian Angels (GATs)

15. Necessary Conditions for Success in Development of COGs and GATs • Infrastructure • Instrument Data Sources • People • Places and • Things • Computing Power: Processor, Memory and Bandwidth • Multi Farm Cloud Computing • Super Computers for Processing • Zettabyte (1021 Bytes) Storage Farms • Million Gigabit bandwidth • Machine Learning and Analytics

16. How to Create a Guardian Angel?

17. Architecture of Guardian AngelsGuardian Angels Publish and Subscribe • Guardian Angels are Mobile Apps that can be enabled for Any Person on the Planet • Unlike APPs of today, Guardian Angels are Mass-customized to Each Individual • Designed to be Non-intrusive, Autonomic, and Device Independent • Always On, Always Present and Always Working • Always Learning • Enduring (life-long) • Guardian Angels Monitor, Analyze and Learn From Experience; • Learn From Own Experience And Experience of Others • And share knowledge with a community of Guardian Angels • Automated Discovery of Data and Information Sources • Guardian Angels Publish and Subscribe Anonymized Data of User Activities and Experiences • Data, suitably anonymized, can be used to learn appropriate responses for every possible situation by • Learning preferences by observing user choices, • Learning by task similarity and user similarity, • Learning by error correction and • Simply learning thru clarification dialog ( does that mean yes? Would you care to define it?)

18. Cloud Based Architecture of Guardian Angels • Always On • App Instantiation in the Cloud • Activity Monitoring: iPhone Sensor data • Always Working • Diagnosis and Repair • Always Learning • Publish/Subscribe

19. Personalization and Customization of Guardian AngelsCloud Based Guardian Angel Platform Linked to User Smart Phone • Self Healing • Detect errors • Resolve errors • Learning • Learn by Watching • Learn by being taught • Learn by doing • Learn by asking others • Learn by discovery • Security • Multimodal authentication • Continuous authentication • Encryption • Dialog • With humans • With other agents • Big Data Management • Process, index, story and retrieve data • Mine, Cluster, and Summarize relevant experience Etc. Power Mgmt Activity Monitoring Multi-Sensor Integration Autonomic Systems Family of Personalized Guardian Angels Subscribe to Local, National and Global Sources and Act on Relevant Information

20. Publish/Subscribe Eco System of Guardian Angel Global Infrastructure Platform Activity Monitoring and Intention Awareness User Guardian Angels Cloud Based User Infrastructure Platform • Knowledge Source Publishers • Global, National and Local • Knowledge Source Distributors • ReTweet Model • Global DataBase of Humankind

21. How Do I Get a Guardian Angel?Guardian Angel Market Place

22. Technologies of Guardian AngelsGuardian Angels Publish and Subscribe • Service Agents are created by service providers using agent templates included in the platform • Download and Pay just as for Apps and Personalization • Guardian Angels Can request and manage services on behalf of their Wards. • Every organization that wants to enable access to their services by Guardian Angels will create a Service Agent for this purpose. • Opt-in “Waze” like Models • Privacy • Individual • Other participants • Legal • Can be subpoena-ed • Security • Information falling into wrong hands

23. Scalable Sustainable Affordable Personal Guardian Angels • By 2025, Everyone on The Planet Has Access to a Phone with Global Connectivity • A Phone is Expected to Cost $50 • Every Man, Woman And Child will have Access to 16GB+ of Space on The Cloud from Facebook, Google And Microsoft • Everyone on The Planet Has Access to • Unlimited Computation, Memory and Bandwidth • Language divide and literacy divide limits access to the internet-enabled solutions to many people in the world. • Providing the right information in the right language and right medium enables scalability to all the people on the planet. • Sustainability and Affordability are natural consequences of exponential reduction in size and cost of Information Technology.

24. …and Privacy • A Facebook of Guardian Angels Are Able To Share Anonymized Knowledge Using Publish/Subscribe Mechanisms Of Social Networking, and • Enabling Each Guardian Angel to Learn and Predict What Events Are Likely To Impact their Protégé • A Guardian Angel Knows the Location Information of The User at All Times so as to Provide an Alert and/or a Notification. If Needed, It Must Be Able to Turn-on The Phone. • No Privacy Breach Since Each Guardian Angel only Shares Information Already Known to the Service Provider

25. Potential Economic Impact of AI 2.0 Emergence of Knowledge as a Service (KaaS) Industry • Every person on the planet will be able to perform many daily tasks more effectively using Guardian Angels • Daily tasks (routines, activities) include a wide spectrum from routine tasks (such as banking and travel planning) to tasks too difficult for the humans • Over 80% of all human activity will done by Guardian Angels by 2025 • 8Billion People Market by 2025 • Ultimately Humans Could be 10 Times More Efficient and Effective • Global GDP is Expected to be $100 Trillion by 2025 • Even 10% improvement will lead to $10T additional wealth creation