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Pathway Risk Analysis: NAPPO RSPM 31 (2012)

Pathway Risk Analysis: NAPPO RSPM 31 (2012). Presented to RPPO-TC August, 2012. Definitions. Pathway : “any means that allows the entry or spread of a pest” (ISPM 5).

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Pathway Risk Analysis: NAPPO RSPM 31 (2012)

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  1. Pathway Risk Analysis:NAPPO RSPM 31 (2012) Presented to RPPO-TC August, 2012

  2. Definitions Pathway: “any means that allows the entry or spread of a pest” (ISPM 5). Pathway risk analysis: a process for evaluating the pest risk and risk management options associated with one or more pathways for the introduction or spread of pests.

  3. Pathway RA may be used to… • Identify potential pathways for the introduction and spread of pests, • Assess the likelihood and consequences of the introduction or spread of pests along a pathway, • Compare and rank multiple pests and pathways according to their level of risk, and • Identify risk management options and evaluate their efficacy.

  4. Pet trade: a difficult pathway to manage

  5. Comparison with other risk analyses • Pest RA: • focuses on the risk associated with a particular pest moving along one or more pathways • Commodity RA: • are a special type of pathway risk analysis; • are a collection of individual pest risk analyses grouped together based on a single commodity

  6. Pathway Continuum Model Spread Introduction Establishment Pest prevalence Events for introduction Events for spread 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Origin Widely Distributed Inspection Detection Time The pathway continuum model Pathways represent a broad continuum, from pest association with the pathway at the region of origin, through entry, establishment, and finally to spread within the region at risk. Of particular concern to risk assessors are the conditions and events that occur along these pathways which either reduce or increase pest risk.

  7. Examples of objectives of pathway risk analyses • Evaluate container loading practices at a packing facility to determine how they affect the likelihood of contaminating pests. • Calculate the probability of wood boring pests spreading from the transport of infested material to landfills. • Evaluate the most likely pathway by which a newly detected pest became established (e.g., traceback). • Estimate the change in the risk of pest introduction should one of the risk mitigation measures in a systems approach fail. • Identify the relative risk of a number of different commodity pathways, in order to prioritize inspection efforts at ports.

  8. Passengers Types of pathway risk analysis • Single pathway, single pest (e.g., marble tile transporting a snail species) • Multiple pathways, single pest (e.g., trade, tourism, and military equipment enabling the movement of a pest between regions) • Single pathway, multiple pests (e.g., commodity from one location with a number of associated pests) • Multiple pathways, multiple pests (e.g., air and sea cargo from another country carrying multiple pests). Yemshanov et al., 2010

  9. Additional characteristics • Diversity & variation: • Pathway risk analyses are highly variable. • Analyses are inherently unique due to differences in objectives, scope of analysis, data availability, and analytical approach. • They may stop at different stages. • Scope: May range from • specific and narrow (e.g., an imported fruit from a particular country) • to general and broad (e.g., wooden handicrafts from China – many types of articles with different pests)

  10. Initiation phase (Stage 1) Identification of the pathway and pests of concern Identification of the area of analysis Background information Scope and objectives of the analysis Conclusion of initiation Pathway description (Stage 2) Information is gathered about the pathway(s) of concern, Pathways are described and characterized: Origin and destinations Relevant events and conditions Limits of the analysis Assumptions, etc. Conclusion of pathway description Pathway RA stages(similar to PRA in ISPM 2 and 11)

  11. Pathway risk assessment(Stage 3) • Pathway categorization • Pathway mapping and modeling • Pests of concern • Assessment of pathway events related to the introduction and spread of pests • Consequences of pest introduction and spread • Pathway comparison • Conclusion of the pathway risk assessment

  12. Pathway risk management(Stage 4) • Control points • Systems approach • Uncertainty in risk management • Natural dispersal and impact • Monitoring effectiveness • Conclusion of risk management Natural dispersal

  13. QUESTIONS?

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