Status of research SB-23 17 May 2006

1. Status of researchSB-23 17 May 2006 Luiz Pinguelli Rosa, Joyce Penner, Niklas Höhne

2. Overview • Introduction to the MATCH processLuiz Pinguelli Rosa • Analysing countries’ contribution to climate change: Scientific and methodological choices Niklas Höhne • Closure and scientific uncertaintyJoyce Penner • Possible future work of MATCHNiklas Höhne • Demonstration of JCM, FAIR and CAITBen Matthews / Niklas Höhne / Jonathan Pershing Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change

3. Historical Background In Kyoto, 1997, the Brazilian Proposal placed in focus the historical emissions’ contribution to increase the global temperature • The calculation presented to support the proposal was based on the available data of historical emissions from each country after the Industrial Revolution • The decay of additional GHG in atmosphere was simulated by a superposition of exponential functions, from Bern Model for calculating the gas concentration • The climate response has been included trough another superposition of exponential functions for calculating the contribution of each country to temperature increase Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change

4. Historical Background The calculation presented to support the Brazilian Proposal had some problems: • The difficulty of having data of historical emissions from each country • The lack of land use changes emissions • The need of including contributions of other GHG • The use of simple superposition of exponential functions • The need of considering non linear effects Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change

5. MATCH process UNFCCC process • Two expert meetings • Coordinated modelling exercise “ACCC” • Ad-hoc group • Initiated by Brazil and UK • Two expert meetings so far Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change

6. SBSTA 17 (Oct 2002) • Work should be continued by the scientific community, in particular to improve the robustness of the preliminary results and to explore the uncertainty and sensitivity • Be of a standard consistent with the practices of peer-reviewed published science. • The process should be inclusive, open and transparent. • Capacity building: strongly encouraged Parties and institutions to facilitate capacity-building in developing countries, including by hosting scientists from developing countries • Invited the scientific community, including IGBP, WCRP, IHDP and IPCC to provide information on how they could contribute • Encouraged scientists to undertake further work, to make the results of their work publicly available and to report progress at SBSTA 20, June 2004 (side event). • SBSTA decided to review the progress at its 23rd session (Nov 2005). Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change

7. MATCH process Objective: • Assess methods for calculating the contribution of different emission sources (e.g. regional, national or sectoral) to climate change and its impacts, taking into account uncertainties, and the sensitivity of the calculations to the use of different methods, models and methodological choices. Outputs: • Provide clear guidance on the implications of the use of the different scientific methods, models, and methodological choices • Where scientific arguments allow, recommend one method/model/choice or several possible methods/models/choices for each step of the calculation of contributions to climate change, taking into account scientific robustness, practicality and data availability • Organization of expert meetings, workshops and a coordinated modelling exercise • Prepare papers to be published in peer reviewed scientific journals Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change

8. MATCH process Scientific Coordination Committee Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change

9. MATCH process Developing country participation: • Fund for travel costs of developing country experts sponsored by governments of Germany, Norway, UK Support unit: • Ecofys under contract to UK Defra Information: • http://www.match-info.net Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change

10. MATCH-info.net • Background • Organization • Papers • Expert meetings • File exchange • Discussion forum Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change

11. Participation in addition to SCC Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change

12. Individual scientific papers • Pinguelli Rosa, Ribeiro, 1997: “The share of responsibility between developed and developing countries in climate change, Greenhouse Gas Mitigation”. In Proceedings from the International Energy Agency Conference on GHG • Pinguelli Rosa, Ribeiro, 2001: “The present, past, and future contributions to global warming of CO2 emissions from fuels”, Climatic Change • den Elzen, Schaeffer 2002: “Responsibility for past and future global warming: Uncertainties in attributing anthropogenic climate change”, Climatic Change • Andronova, Schlesinger 2004: “Importance of Sulfate Aerosol in Evaluating the Relative Contributions of Regional Emissions to the Historical Global Temperature Change”, Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies for Global Change • Pinguelli Rosa, Ribeiro, Muylaert, Campos, 2004: “Comments on the Brazilian Proposal and contributions to global temperature increase with different climate responses - CO2 emissions due to fossil fuels, CO2 emissions due to land use change”, Energy Policy • Muylaert, Cohen, Pinguelli Rosa, Pereira, 2004: “ Equity, responsibility and climate change” Climate Research • Muylaert, Campos, Pinguelli Rosa, 2005: “GHG historical contribution by sectors, sustainable development and equity” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews • Campos, Muylaert, Pinguelli Rosa, 2005: “Historical CO2 emission and concentrations due to land use change of croplands and pastures by country”, Science of the Total Environment • Trudinger, Enting, 2005: “Comparison of formalisms for attributing responsibility for climate change: Non-linearities in the Brazilian Proposal approach”, Climatic Change • den Elzen, Schaeffer, Lucas, 2005: “Differentiating Future Commitments on the Basis of Countries’ Relative Historical Responsibility for Climate Change: Uncertainties in the ‘Brazilian Proposal’ in the Context of a Policy Implementation”, Climatic Change • Rive, Torvanger, Fuglestvedt 2005: “Climate agreements based on responsibility for global warming: periodic updating, policy choices, and regional costs”, Global Environmental Change • Höhne, Blok, 2005: “Calculating historical contributions to climate change – discussing the ‘Brazilian Proposal’”, Climatic Change Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change

13. MATCH results • Paper #1: Analysing countries’ contribution to climate change: Scientific choices and methodological issues: status of the work and first results  • Paper #2: Attributing a fraction of climate change to a nation's historical emissions: closure and scientific uncertainty • Other capacity developed as inspiration of the MATCH process: • IVIG (Brazil) developed a detailed and flexible model of land-use emissions which has recently been coupled with the JCM carbon/climate model developed in UCL-ASTR (Belgium) • A researcher from CMA (China) visited NIWA (New Zealand) for an extended period to gain experience in modelling Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change

14. Overview • Introduction to the MATCH processLuiz Pinguelli Rosa • Analysing countries’ contribution to climate change: Scientific and methodological choices Niklas Höhne • Closure and scientific uncertaintyJoyce Penner • Possible future work of MATCHNiklas Höhne • Demonstration of JCM, FAIR and CAITBen Matthews / Niklas Höhne / Jonathan Pershing Modelling and assessment of contributions to climate change