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Age-Specific Rates Analysis in Human Development and Food Security Demography

Understand the demographic phenomena with Dr. Nicoletta Cibella focusing on fertility, mortality, marriage, and migration rates by age. Analyze event intensity and timing with cohort and contemporary approaches. Learn about age-specific mortality rates, survival probabilities, and life expectancies.

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Age-Specific Rates Analysis in Human Development and Food Security Demography

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  1. UNIVERSITÀ DEGLI STUDI DI ROMA TRE Master in Human Development and Food Security Demography Doctor Nicoletta Cibella Istat, cibella@istat.it Rome, 2016

  2. The specific rates The analysis of demographic phenomena The mortality The fertility The marriage rate Migration Outline of the lesson Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  3. 1. The agespecificrates The crude rates do not give specific information on the population. They are extremely dependent on the age structure. Age specific rates Age specific fertility rate: fx= Bx,x+n/Pf x,x+nonly women , B births from women age x Age specific mortality rate : mx= Dx,x+n/Px,x+nboth sex, separately and join Age specific marriage rate : sx= Mx,x+n/P x,x+nboth sex, separately Age specific emigration rate : e x,x+n = E x,x+n /P x,x+nboth sex, separately and join Age specific immigration rate : i x,x+n = I x,x+n /P x,x+nboth sex, separately and join Generally rates are multiplied by 1.000 Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  4. 1. The agespecificrates In the case of fertility, the relation between crude rates and age specific rates is the following : n = B / P = Σx Bx / P = Σx fx Pfx /P =T.F.R. * Pfx /P where n = the crude birth rate fx = Bx /P x is the age specific fertility rate Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  5. 1. The agespecificrates - exercise Calculate the age specific fertility, mortality and marriage rates Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  6. 1. The agespecificrates - exercise Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  7. 2. The analysis of demographic phenomena It can be defined the: INTENSITY of a phenomenon = the number of events during a generation life time , that is the medium number of events for a population individuals TIMING of a phenomenon = its age distribution during life span The events can be: RENEWABLE: can occur more than one in life NOT RENEWABLE : only once in life and cause the exit of individuals from the present status For NOT RENEWABLE events elimination table can be created so as to calculate the probability of facing an events or exit from a particular status = N° events/population exposed at the risk of the event Stock data- referred to a specific time Flows data- referred to an interval Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  8. 2. The analysis of demographic phenomena In the study of the demographic events two different approaches can be applied: • generation - cohort : individuals experiencing a common origin event in the same year, group of people all born at the same time longitudinal approach • contemporary: people coming from different generations living in the same year cross sectional approach age Lexis scheme time Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  9. 3. The mortality (a) Intensity = 1 Variable timing The instrument implemented so as to improve the analysis of the mortality is the life-table which describes the extinction of a cohort due to deaths. Age specific mortality rate: mx= Dx,x+n/P x,x+n Probability of death: qx = Dx,x+n/S x = ABCD/AB=(d1+d2)/AB =(d1+d2)/P+d1 In a not closed population: - take into account also e1 and e2, the net emigration (e-i). We have population at time t+1, P. qx= (d1+d2)/P+d1+e1-((e1+e2)/2) The emigrants faced the period death risk only for ½ year . Starting from the qx , all the table can be filled in. age P time Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  10. 3. The mortality (b) People of age 65 33.256 People of age 66 31.258 Deaths of people of aged 65 and 66 2.252 Mean population (33.256+31.258)/2=32.257 Age specific mortality rate of age 65: m65= Probability of death at age 65: q65= Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  11. 3. The mortality (b) People of age 65 33.256 People of age 66 31.258 Deaths of people of aged 65 and 66 2.252 Mean population (33.256+31.258)/2=32.257 Age specific mortality rate of age 65: m65=2.252/32.257=0.06898*1.000=68,98‰ Probability of death at age 65: q65=2.252/33.256=0.06772*1.000=67,72‰ Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  12. 3. The mortality (c) We can definethe root of the table (that is the initial population) l0generally 10.000 or 100.000 Survivalprobability: px=1- qx Survived at x+1 : lx+1= lx px= lx- lxqx Deathsbetween x and x+1 : dx= lx qx=lx+1- lx The yearslived between x and x+1: Lx=(lx+lx+1)/2= lx+1+(dx/2) The reverse-accumulated series of years lived: TX=Lx+Lx+1+Lx+2+…..+Lω-1 T0 total number of years lived by a generation until its extinction The life expectancy at age x (the mean number of year that an individual of age x could expect to live) : Ex=Tx/lx The life expectancy at birth : Eo=T0/l0 Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  13. 3. The mortality (d) Life expectancy at birth…in the history Source: wikipedia Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  14. 3. The mortality (d) In a population with a high level of life expectancy you can see: age Life table Human Development and Food Security. Demografia. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  15. 3. The mortality (e)- Life expectancy at birth There are great variations in life expectancy between different parts of the world, mostly caused by differences in public health, medical care and diet. Much of the excess mortality (higher death rates) in poorer nations is due to war, starvation, and diseases (aids, malaria, etc.). The impact of AIDS is particularly notable on life expectancy in many African countries. According to the UN estimates the life expectancy at birth for 2010–2015 (if HIV/AIDS did not exist) would have been: 70.7 years instead of 31.6 in BOTSWANA 69.9 years instead of 41.5 in SOUTH AFRICA 70.5 years instead of 31.8 in ZIMBABWE. Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  16. Life expectancy at birth. Different countries. 2010. Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Dott.ssa Nicoletta Cibella

  17. 3. The mortality (e) Life expectancy at birth. Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  18. 3. The mortality (e) Life expectancy at birth. UN World Population Prospects 2010. • http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Maps/ Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  19. 3. The mortality (e) Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella • 19

  20. 3. The mortality (f)- causes In high-income countries more than two thirds of all people live beyond the age of 70 and predominantly die of chronic diseases: cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive lung disease, cancers, diabetes or dementia. Lung infection remains the only leading infectious cause of death. In middle-income countries, nearly half of all people live to the age of 70 and chronic diseases are the major killers, just as they are in high-income countries. Unlike in high-income countries, however, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS and road traffic accidents also are leading causes of death. In low-income countries less than one in five of all people reach the age of 70, and more than a third of all deaths are among children under 15. People predominantly die of infectious diseases: lung infections, diarrhoeal diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria. Complications of pregnancy and childbirth together continue to be leading causes of death, claiming the lives of both infants and mothers. More than 8 million deaths in 2008 were among children under five years of age, and 99% of them were in low- and middle-income countries. (World Health Organization) Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella • 20

  21. 3. The mortality (f)- causes Measuring how many people die each year and why they have died is one of the most important means for assessing the effectiveness of a country’s health system. Having those numbers helps health authorities determine whether they are focusing on the right kinds of public health actions. A country where deaths from heart disease and diabetes rapidly rise over a period of a few years, for example, has a strong interest in starting a vigorous programme to encourage lifestyles that will help prevent these illnesses. Similarly, if a country recognizes that many children are dying of malaria, but only a small portion of the health budget is dedicated to providing effective treatment, an adjustment can be made. Industrialized countries have systems in place for assessing causes of death in the population. Many developing countries do not have such systems, and the numbers of deaths from specific causes have to be estimated from incomplete data. (World Health Organization) Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella • 21

  22. 4. The fertility (a) Complex phenomenon influenced by many factors: biological, social, cultural. It is renewable. Crude birth rate: f= B/ fP depending on age structure Age specific fertility rate: fgx = Bgx / fPgx f females of age x and generation g Intensity: T.F.T. = sum of the age specific fertility rates = In Italy in year 2008 was 1.4 live births per woman. Timing : mean age at childbearing= ā = Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  23. Total fertility rate (T.F.R). Different countries. 2015 estimates. A world map showing countries by fertility rate. According to the The World FactBook (CIA), 2015 estimates

  24. 4. The fertility (a) Total fertility rate (T.F.R). Different countries. Estimates 2015 1 Niger 6.76 2 Burundi 6.09 3 Mali 6.06 4 Somalia 5.99 5 Uganda 5.89 6 Burkina Faso 5.86 7 Zambia 5.72 8 Malawi 5.60 9 Angola 5.37 10 Afghanistan 5.33 11 South Sudan 5.31 12 Mozambique 5.21 13 Nigeria 5.19 14 Ethiopia 5.15 15 Timor-Leste 5.01 16 Benin 4.95 17 Tanzania 4.89 18 Guinea 4.88 19 Sierra Leone 4.80 20 Cameroon 4.76 208 Italy 1.43 209 Serbia 1.43 210 Greece 1.42 211 Japan 1.40 212 Slovakia 1.39 213 Andorra 1.38 214 Slovenia 1.34 215 Romania 1.33 216 Poland 1.33 217 Montserrat 1.30 218 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.27 219 British Virgin Islands 1.26 220 Korea, South 1.25 221 Hong Kong 1.18 222 Taiwan 1.12 223 Macau 0.94 224 Singapore 0.81 Source: Central Intelligence Agency, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2127rank.html Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella • 24

  25. 4. The fertility (b) Total fertility rate (T.F.R). Different regions. 2007-10. Source: Istat; *estimation. See also: http://noi-italia.istat.it/fileadmin/user_upload/allegati/17.pdf Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella • 25

  26. 4. The fertility (c) Mean age at childbearing. EU countries. 2002 and 2010. Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  27. 4. The fertility (d)- exercise Population in 2006 14.500 inhabitants. The birth rate = 7.8 ‰ The T.F.R = 28,3 ‰ n = B / P = T.F.R * Pfx /P Calculate : - the number of females in age 15-49 by age group - the expected number of births if they will have the age structure and the fertility rates above Source: C.Ge Rondi Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  28. 4. The fertility (d)- exercise n = B / P = T.F.R. * Pfx /P n=0,0078=0,0283*(Pfx /14500) = 3.996 Population in 2006 14.500 inhabitants. The birth rate = 7.8 ‰ The T.F.R = 28,3 ‰ Births = 5fx * 5Pfx Source: C.Ge Rondi Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  29. 4. The fertility (e) Several aspects of the fertility nuptial fertility Crude birth legitimate rate : f= ( jBld/ jM )*1.000 Legitimate births l in the M marriage celebrated in year j, d length of the marriage Also analysis by civil status of woman Age specific fertility rate for married women flx, = Blx / fPconx Obviously you can count the births outside the marriage (illegitimate children) Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  30. 4. The fertility (f) The differentiated fertility study of fertility within groups different for social, religious and cultural characteristics Henry (1961) defined natural fertilityfertility in absence of deliberate control Gini defined fecundability the probability that a woman, exposed to risk of pregnancy, will be pregnant Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  31. 4. The fertility (f) Contraceptive prevalence rate, total fertility rate, unmet need for family planning. CPR : The percent of women of reproductive age who are using (or whose partner is using) a contraceptive method at a particular point in time, almost always reported for women married or in sexual union. Generally, the measure includes all contraceptive methods (modern and traditional), but it may include modern methods only. The indicator is calculated as follows: (# of women 15-49 using a contraceptive method / total # of women 15-49) x 100 Around 25-40% of maternal deaths could be eliminated if unplanned pregnancies are prevented. When the use of contraceptives is low in a country, the total fertility rate – average number of children per woman during her life time – is often high. Contraceptive prevalence rates (CPR) in countries with a high MMR (Measles, Mumps. & Rubella) and a low proportion of skilled care at birth are usually low, as the case in Papua New Guinea (36%), Lao People's Democratic Republic (38%) and Cambodia (40%) in 2008. China, Viet Nam and Mongolia have a high CPR, ranging from 66% to 85%, while the Philippines reached 51% in 2008. Most of the countries/areas in the Pacific islands have a CPR of less than 40%. The total fertility rate (TFR) in countries with a low CPR is usually high, as the case in Cambodia, Lao People's Democratic Republic and Papua New Guinea at 3.3-4.1 in 2008, while the Philippines at 3.2 and Pacific Island countries with a small population mostly at 3.9-4.4. Most of the countries with a high TFR often have limited choice of contraceptive methods. (World Health Organization) Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  32. 4. The fertility (g) Source: United Nations, “World contracpetive use, 2011” Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  33. 4. The fertility (g) T. F. R. for the different education level of the woman. Some countries. 2001. Source: United Nations, “Concise report on world population monitoring, 2002” Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  34. 4. The fertility (g) T. F. R. for different Gross domestic product (GDP). 2009. Sources: Central Intelligence Agency. World Fact Book. Note: GDP is the market value of all officially recognized final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. GDP per capita is often considered an indicator of a country's standard of living. Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  35. 5. The marriage rate (a) This phenomenon doesn’t change the amount of the population but its distribution by civil status and it is interesting because: • linked to the fertility; • it allows the study of the life of a family which ends with the divorce or the death of one of the two partners; • It is a selective events and someone is excluded Crude marriage rate: s= M/P M marriages, P mean population Age specific marriage rate : sx = Mx /Px x is the age of one of the two spouses Intensity = T.N.R. = Timing: mean age at marriage = Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  36. 5. The marriage rate (a) Crude marriage rates per 1000 persons. Source: Eurostat. http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=tps00012. The crude marriage rate is the ratio of the number of marriages during the year to the average population in that year. The value is expressed per 1000 persons. Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  37. 5. The marriage rate (b) It can considered as NOT RENEWABLE taking into account only the first marriage so as to create the nuptiality table Age specific marriage rate: csx = cMx /Pxwhere c denotes not married people Intensity: T.N.R.P.M. = Nuptiality table First the root of the table must be defined, the cohort of singles considered c0 generally 10.000 or 100.000 Probability of first marriage: nx= cMx/(cPx-0.5cdx) The number of marriages at age x : http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/WMD2008/WP_WMD_2008/Documentation.html Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  38. 5. The marriage rate (b) Final bachelorhood : Also important the study of the divorce, the end of the married couple. Crude divorce rate: d= (D/P)*1.000 Crude divorce rates per 1000 persons. Source: Eurostat. http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=tps00012. The crude divorce rate is the ratio of the number of divorces during the year to the average population in that year. The value is expressed per 1000 persons. Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  39. 5. The marriage rate (b) - exercise The females of a given population are the following: Calculate - the age specific marriage rate; - the T.N.R. Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  40. 5. The marriage rate (b) - exercise T.N.R. =1,04 Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  41. 5. The family The main changes in the family structure are(United Nations) : • In the last 50 years the nuclear family has emerged • The main causes of the low number of the family components are: the fertility decline, migration, high divorce rates, rise in elderly people • The family dimension is in East Asia equal to 3.7 persons, in South Asia 4.9 , In North Africa 5.7 , in MDC is 2.8. • The mean age at the first marriage is increasing due to the high level of education of woman. • The T.F.Rs are about 1.6 in MDC, 3.1 in LDC and 5.5 in least DC. Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  42. 6. Migration (a) The mobility is the attitude to move. Migrations are a particular case of mobility they cause a change It a selective (migratory selection) and renewable phenomenon. How to calculate the net migration? NM = I – E = Pt - P0 – B + D Age specific immigration rate: ix= Ix/Px I immigrations Age specific emigration rate: : ex= Ex/Px E emigrations Age specific net migration rate, migration rate: mx= (Ix-Ex)/Px Age specific exchange rate : rx= (Ix+Ex)/Px The rates are multiplied by 1.000 Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  43. 6. Migration (a) Intensity: T.MI.R. = sum of the age specific rates Timing : age media at migration = Net natural increase and net migration rate per 1,000 people.2013 Source: Eurostat. Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  44. 6. Migration (a) - exercise Complete the table Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella • 44

  45. 6. Migration (a) - exercise Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella • 45

  46. 6. Migration (b) Foreigner Yes NO Immigrant Born abroad No citizen Born in the state NO • The United Nations recommends to define the immigrants population as people born abroad, living in the country for more than one year place of birth criterion • The foreign population is composed by people with no citizenship of the country. The criterion is legal and it is objective but is influenced by the laws of the receiving countries. Immigrant versus foreigner Yes Born abroad Citizen Born in the state No citizen Citizen Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  47. 6. Migration (b) International Migrants, % on the whole population. Some years. World MDC LDC Source : United Nations, “Trends in total migrants Stock: The 2005 Revision”. Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  48. 6. Migration (b) Source : United Nations, “Trends in international migrants Stock”,2011. Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  49. 6. Migration (b) Source : United Nations, “Trends in international migrants Stock”,2011. Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

  50. 6. Migration (b) There is a lack in the statistical sources about data on migration. • no accurate information available on the whole phenomenon (illegal migration); • administrative data are not reliable; • the classification are heterogeneous, some indicator are missing or not available. IN Italy information on : a) foreign population flows, b) foreign population stocks, c) events (demographic, social, economical, etc.) experienced by foreigners on the territory SPECIFIC AREASSOURCE Demographic characteristics: CENS, MINT, ANAGR Educational level and knowledge of language: CENS, MIUR Demographic behaviors: ST.CIV-ANAGR, MAE Relations with the receiving and sending countries:MAE, MINT Work: CENS, MINT, INPS Housing: CENS Health: MSAL, ST.CIV-ANAGR Deviance: MGIU, DAP Human Development and Food Security. Demography. Doctor Nicoletta Cibella

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