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Environmental damage: Combining impact and vulnerability

BE-AWARE II Final Conference, 18-19 November, Ronneby, Sweden. Environmental damage: Combining impact and vulnerability. Co-financed by the EU – Civil Protection Financial Instrument. Objective: How to combine Impact with Vulnerability to obtain Damage ?

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Environmental damage: Combining impact and vulnerability

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  1. BE-AWARE II Final Conference, 18-19 November, Ronneby, Sweden Environmental damage: Combining impact and vulnerability Co-financed by the EU – Civil Protection Financial Instrument

  2. Objective: • How to combine Impactwith Vulnerabilityto obtain Damage? • The numerical result for damage must be applied to identify damage differences for different scenarios • Environmental damage: Combining impact and vulnerability Impact Vulnerability ? Damage Damage ref Diff 1 Damage 1 Diff 2 Damage 2 Diff 3 Damage 3 Diff 4 Damage 4

  3. Definition of Damage General definition: Risk = Probability · Consequence, [EUR/year] Present definition: Risk = Probability · Impact·Vulnerability, [g oil'/y/m²)] Damage calculation: Integration of risk over frequencies and area, [g oil'] Damage is: • amount of oil in each cell, spilt due to accidents (including drift, etc.) • weighted according to env. and soc.-eco. vulnerability per cell • time-averaged (seldom big + frequent small spills) • summarised for a sub-region • Environmental damage: Combining impact and vulnerability

  4. Addition of damage at surface and in water column: Impact x Vulnerability => Damage Base case: Surface Damage Base case: Water column All seasons, spill sizes, oil types, all winds, all accidents

  5. Oil on shore Mass of oil per shoreline in a specific sub-region. Combined with vulnerability of shoreline. • Oil on surface mass (oil) per area water surface. combined with surface vulnerability • Oil in the water columnmass (oil) per area water column (horizontal area – assuming 20-60 m layer thickness). combined with water column vulnerability • Environmental damage: 3 types of impact

  6. Challenging question: How shall environmental and socio-economic Damage balance Impact and Vulnerability? Mutual decision:Impact and Vulnerability shall be of equal consequence for environmental and socio-economic Damage"100% Damage = 50% Impact + 50% Vulnerability" • Balance of impact and vulnerability

  7. Frequency analysis of impact dataset: Range (0-10.000.000)=> dominant Frequency analysis of vulnerability dataset:Range: 1-50 • Frequency analysis of data sets

  8. Transformation of dataset Impact: Unchanged (physical dimension) Vulnerability: Transformed (index) Range of the vulnerability data is transformed so range is equal in both data sets

  9. Transformation of dataset Preparation of comparable dataset:

  10. 2·4+2·4·9 = 80 maps TransformationMultiplication2·4·9=72 datasets9 damage maps5x(9-1)= 40 values • Process

  11. Results: • Method to determine absolute damage (kg oil weighted). • Determine damage differences for each scenario: • Summary

  12. Thank youbeaware.bonnagreement.org Questions?

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