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Pacific Northwest Climate Model Scenarios 2008

Pacific Northwest Climate Model Scenarios 2008. Climate Impacts Group & Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington. Eric Salathé Philip Mote Valérie Dulière Emily Jump. 19 Models From IPCC Fourth Assessment. Biases (20th c, minus NCEP). 20th century seasonal cycle.

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Pacific Northwest Climate Model Scenarios 2008

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  1. Pacific NorthwestClimate Model Scenarios 2008 Climate Impacts Group&Department of Atmospheric SciencesUniversity of Washington Eric Salathé Philip Mote Valérie DulièreEmily Jump

  2. 19 ModelsFrom IPCCFourth Assessment

  3. Biases (20th c, minus NCEP)

  4. 20th century seasonal cycle

  5. 20th century trend

  6. Observed Sea level pressure (NCEP)

  7. Model Performance observed

  8. Ranked Model Performance

  9. Emissions scenarios Global IPCC Fourth Assessment

  10. PNW Temperature Change 10°F 0°F

  11. Scenario Selection - T/P Scatter

  12. 2040s - 1980s PNW

  13. Projected Temperature

  14. Projected Precipitation

  15. Future Storm Track Changes Change from 1960-2000 to2080-2100 Composite of 16 Global Climate Models Stronger N PacificStorm track North America Asia NP Europe Stronger N AtlanticStorm track ULBRICH ET AL. 2008

  16. Projected Future Changes from Climate Models (2046-2065 versus 1981-2000) SRES A1B SRES B1 IPSL +18.8% +11.8% ECHAM5 +11.4% +10.6% CCSM3 +12.2% +10.8% Percentages of change in the annual maximum daily precipitation with a 10 years return period for each grid cell between 1981-2000 and 2046-2065.

  17. Global models must be downscaled for regional studies

  18. Downscaling -- Winter

  19. Downscaling -- Summer

  20. Mesoscale Climate Model • Based on Regional Weather Model (MM5, WRF) • Nested grids 135-45-15 km • Advanced land-surface model (NOAH) • Forced by Global Climate Model output (boundary conditions)

  21. observed sea level rise 1961-2003 1993-2003 1961-2003 1993-2003

  22. Projected global SLR 2090s

  23. Local vertical land motion Pacific Northwest Geodetic Array Verdonck (2006)

  24. Summary • Temp and precip: central values roughly the same as 2005 estimates • 0.5F/decade warming and little change in annual total precip • Increased likelihood of drier summers, wetter winters, heavy rains • Range of projected temp, precip, sea level:no problem to serious consequences

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