Climate Change in China: Impacts and adaptation 中国的气候变化：影响和适应性转变

1. Climate Change in China:Impacts and adaptation中国的气候变化：影响和适应性转变 Defra (DECC)-DFID China-UK collaboration 食品和农村事务部（能源和气候变化部 ）国际发展部，中英合作 Prof Lin Erda lined@ami.ac.cn Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences 中国农业科学院 Declan Conway, UEA d.conway@uea.ac.uk

2. China: Summary of recent trends (from IPCC AR4)中国：基于IPCC第四次评估报告的最新趋势综述 Temperatures气温 Warmer in last 50 years, higher extremes 在过去的50年气温变得更高，特别是极端温度 Precipitation降水 Complex patterns, increase in intensity, 复杂的模式，降水强度的增加 Some evidence for increase in flood frequency 一些证据表明洪水发生频率的上升 Some areas increase in drought (temperature related?) 干旱地区的增加（与气温相关？） Other….其他 Cyclones, increasing intensity (decreasing freq.?) 旋风，强度的增加（出现频率下降？） Glaciers retreating冰川融化

3. Climate Change – what do we expect based on the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report? 气候变化-对于IPCC第四次评估报告我们期待什么结果 Gradual warming (higher frequency of temperature extremes) 逐渐变暖（极端温度的频繁出现） For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emission scenarios 未来20年在关于排放情景的特殊报告中被预计为每十年增长0.2°C

4. Climate Change – Frequency and Magnitude of Extremes 气候变化-极端变化的频率和幅度 Very likely to be an increase in the frequency of intense precipitation events in parts of South Asia, and East Asia 很可能演变成在东南亚部分地区强降水事件发生强度和频率的增加 Extreme rainfall and winds associated with tropical cyclones are likely to increase in East Asia, Southeast Asia and South Asia. 东南亚地区出现极端的降水和热带气旋带来的狂风

5. North and northeast: Increased water scarcity 华北和东北：水资源短缺的上升 Northwest: Desertification (higher evaporation) 西北:荒漠化（高蒸发） Coastal regions: Typhoons, storm surge and long-term inundation 沿海地区：台风，风暴潮河长期性水灾 Tibetan Plateau: Change in river flows / melting glaciers 青藏高原：河流流量的变化/冰川融化 Southern China: Increase in flood frequency and magnitude 中国南方：洪水发生频率和幅度的提高

6. 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 Achievements in Phase I (2001-04)第一阶段的成果（2001年至04年） Climate Change Scenarios气候变化情况 Temperature to increase by 3~4℃ and rainfall to increase 10~12% by 2080s 气温增加3~4℃，到21世纪80年代降雨量增加10~12% Crop Yield Changes农作物产量变化 Yields of rice, maize and wheat to change significantly in the next 80 years - without any adaptations 若在未来80年中没有任何适应性措施，水稻玉米小麦产量将发生显著性变化

7. New results from Phase II Integrating climate change, water availability and socio-economic scenarios第二阶段的新成果：将气候变化，水供应和社会经济情景合为整体考察 • Climate Change;气候变化 • CO2 fertilization effects • 二氧化碳肥效 • Water Availability水供应 • Agricultural land conversion农业用地的变化 • All drivers together将所有影响因素放在一起考虑

8. The integration approach 集成路径

9. Change in total cereal production with different combinations of drivers 不同影响因素组合导致谷物总产量的变化 Only climate change:只有气候变化 • Without CO2, modest negative impacts by 2050s 不考虑CO2肥效，至2050是中等的负面影响

10. Change in total cereal production with different combinations of drivers Climate change and CO2: • With CO2, production increases in all cases 考虑CO2后，总产都增加

11. Change in total cereal production with different combinations of drivers Climate change and water: • Water is a significant limiting factor for future cereal production 水是未来粮食生产的关键因素之一。

12. All drivers together:所有因素都考虑进来 • Multiple effects tend to counter-balance, BUT… • 多种因素往往相互抗衡，但是。。。

13. Key issues affecting the results 影响结果的主要问题 • PRECIS gives optimistic precipitation • 维持原状会带来充分的降水 • Effects of extremes (and pests/diseases) underestimated • 低估极端气候（和虫害/疾病）带来的影响 • National analysis obscures areas with much larger changes • 国家整体性分析模糊了各个地区的大变化 • CO2 effect may not be so large • 二氧化碳的影响或许没有那么大

14. Annual change in temperature and rainfall for China: 2020s, 2050s and 2080s中国气温和降水量的年度变化：2020，2050，2080 • 17 GCMs from IPCC and PRECIS (A2 emissions) • IPCC17种环流模式和维持原状的情况（加减2单位排放量）

15. Modelling the effects of adaptation 对适应性影响建模 • Three high level policy responses considered: • 考虑政策反应的三高水平 • Reduction in land conversion (LP) • 减少土地转化（LP） • Prioritising water for agriculture/irrigation (WD) • 优先农业用水/灌溉（WD） • Improvements in agricultural technology (AT) • 改进农业技术（AT)

16. Modelling the effects of adaptation • Results show adaptation can offset effects of climate change, BUT….结果表明适应性措施能削弱气候变化的影响，但是 • Assumes sustainable agricultural production • 假设农业可持续生产 • Factors such as land degradation, use and access to inputs, not included • 影响投入的因素如土地退化，使用 • China must maintain / increase investment in agricultural technology • 中国必须保持或增加农业科技投入

17. Changes in cereal production per capita under combinations of drivers 考虑所有影响因素组合情况下人均谷物产量变化

18. The effect of adaptation strategies on cereal production per capita 适应性战略对人均谷物产量的影响

19. China Case Study: Regional Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation中国案例研究：地区影响，脆弱性和适应性 • Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences中国农业研究院 • Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture • 环境和农业可持续发展研究所 • Ningxia CDM service centre 宁夏碳交易中心 • Ningxia Meteorological Bureau宁夏气象局 Prof Lin Erda lined@ami.ac.cn Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Declan Conway, UEA d.conway@uea.ac.uk

20. Ningxia Autonomous Region – north-west ChinaSemi-arid to arid – high levels of rural povertyRange of different farming systems宁夏自治区位于中国西北部半干旱至干旱地区，农村非常贫困，多种耕作制度并存

21. An adaptation framework for Ningxia 宁夏的适应性措施框架 Working with stakeholders…. 利益相关方共同合作… New knowledge/ Research 新知识/研究 2 Integrate development and adaptation goals 2发展与适应目标相结合 1 Assess climate risks 1气候风险评估 3 Identify adaptation options 3确定适应对策选项 6 Monitoring and evaluation 6监控和评估 5 Implementation 5执行 4 Prioritise options 4将选项按缓急排列 Adaptation as a process 将适应性措施作为一个进程

22. Step 1: Assessing climate risks步骤1：气候风险评估 Risk assessment: 风险评估： • What is likelihood of the event occurring? • 什么是事件发生的可能性？ • What is the potential impact of such an event? • 此事件的潜在影响是什么？ Requires: 要求： • Good understanding of current • 对当前要有充分的了解 • sensitivity / vulnerability • 敏感性/脆弱性 • How climate will change • 气候将如何变化

23. Understanding of current对当前的认识sensitivity / vulnerability敏感性/脆弱性 • Questionnaires and consultation with stakeholders: • 对利益相关方进行问卷调查和咨询： • Farming communities • 农民社区 • Decision-makers • 决策方

24. Questionnaire aimed at providing rapid insight into climate vulnerability旨在为气候脆弱性提供洞见的问卷调查 Assess whether and by how much people living in different areas have been affected by recent climate events (i.e. their vulnerability) 评定居住在不同地区的人们是否以及多大程度上受到最近气候事件的影响（也即其脆弱性） Identify the kinds of response strategies they or organisations have implemented to reduce the effects of climate on livelihoods 明确他们或组织为了减轻气候对生活所造成影响而实施的反应策略的种类

25. Dialogue with farmersand organisations – current and future climate hazards 农民和组织的对话—当前及将来的气候危害 If drought becomes more common in the future - or gets more extreme - are there any measures that you can take？ 若干旱在将来更普遍，或者变得更极端，我们还有什么可以采取的措施吗？ What government programs could help you to adapt to climate change?怎样的政府规划能帮助你适应气候变化？ Examples 例子

26. What are the main future climate risks for Ningxia?宁夏将来最主要的气候风险是什么？ Expert judgement: combine scenario information and vulnerability assessment 专家意见：联合具体情况和脆弱性评估 Four main risks identified: 确认四个主要风险： • Drought (a major concern of stakeholders in Ningxia)干旱（宁夏利益相关方的关注重点） • Surprises/extreme events (increases in windstorms, agricultural pests and diseases)奇袭/极端事件（暴风，农作物害虫和疾病不断增加）

27. Drying/high temperatures 干旱/高温 • Desertification is already serious in Ningxia 土地荒漠化在宁夏已经非常严重 • Higher temperatures will increase evaporation causing greater stress on plants 较高的温度加速了水份蒸发，这给植物造成很大压力 • Change in Yellow River flows 黄河流域的变化

28. High-level adaptation recommendations for agriculture and prioritisation对农业和方法的高水平适应性建议 • Consider establishment of across-departmental groupon adaptation within regional government 考虑在适应性方面同地区政府建立一个跨部门的团队 • Raising awareness on climate changetrends, potential impacts and adaptation activities across the region 增强对气候变化趋势，潜在影响，以及跨区域的适应性活动的意识 • Opportunities through ongoing rural development programmes • 在正在开展的农村发展项目中寻找机会

30. Key points关键点 Adaptation as a process适应是一个过程 There are no blueprints for adaptation对于适应性措施没有现实蓝本 The local context is important当地现实情况很重要 Consultation with stakeholders 与利益相关者进行协商 should be a key part of the process:以下应该是过程的关键部分 • What are the main risks?什么事最主要的风险 • Who / what is vulnerable? 谁/什么事是脆弱的 • What are realistic and effective responses and who is best placed to take action and when?什么是现实和有效的应对，谁最合适做出应对，何时做出应对

31. Some reflections几点思考 Challenges:挑战 Uncertainty about the detail of CC remains high – need for 关于CC细节的不确定仍然很高，这需要 • research to reduce uncertainties研究如何降低这种不确定性 • flexibility / adaptive management灵活的/适应性的管理 Time scales beyond horizons of stakeholders超过利益相关者眼界的时间跨度 Other socio-economic changes more significant (population, economic growth)其他社会经济变化更为显著（人口数量，经济增长） Modelling impacts can become very complex and time consuming (CO2 fertilisation, model sensitivity, etc.)建模的影响变得更为复杂和耗时（二氧化碳肥效，模式灵敏度等等） Climate science气候科学 Seasonal forecasting / Decadal variability (causes of droughts)季节预测/十年编译（由干旱导致） Improved understanding of CO2-crop water use-land cover interactions提高对二氧化碳，农作物，水，土地覆盖之间相互作用的认识 Better understanding of extremes (projections and impacts)对于极端气候更好的了解（预测和影响）

32. Some reflections几点思考 Methods:方法 Consultation essential – need good understanding of current sensitivity, vulnerability and capacity to adapt 协商必不可少—需要对现今敏感性，脆弱性有充分的认识和去应对的能力 Impacts assessment – can be very technical/time consuming – keep simple 评估的影响—可以非常技术性/耗时—保持简单 Embed CC concerns within existing management systems and processes 在现存管理体系和流程中引入CC No blueprints for adaptation, need to invest time on communication and awareness raising, especially at provincial level 适应性策略没有蓝本，需要在沟通和提高认识上投入时间，特别是在省这一级别

33. Some reflections几点思考 Opportunities:机遇 Recent extremes may highlight current sensitivity and vulnerability (and effective responses) 近期极端气候会凸显当前敏感性和脆弱性（和有效应对） Collaboration, ‘shared experiences’ worked well 合作，“分享经验”使得工作更顺利 Many existing options often already present – ‘no regrets’ [CC often exacerbates existing problems] 很多出现的选择往往已经存在-“不后悔”（CC经常加剧现存的问题） Entry points likely to be dealing with existing ‘adaptation gap’: better management of climate hazards 进入的点可能会在处理现存问题时存在“适应性差距”：需要更好的气候灾害管理

34. Thank you谢谢 More detail can be found at;更多详细资料请登录 www.china-climate-adapt.org