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Introduction I want to research the impact of disasters on international trade. Countries should specialize in whatever they do best and obtain the rest through trade (Ricardo). This is an efficient organization, but is it “robust” to large-scale catastrophes?

Introduction

Literature Only one empirical study so far: Shaken, Not Stirred: The Impact of Disasters on International Trade (Martin Gassebner, Alexander Keck, and RoberthTeh), Working Paper No 139, June 2006, Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research Looked at period between 1962 and 2004. An additional disaster reduces imports on average by 0.2% and exports by 0.1%. The impact depends on level of democracy and size of the country. Togo estimated to have lost 6.8% of imports and 8.2% of exports if hit by a major disaster in 2000.

Data Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) (1900-2010) http://mdat.be NBER-United Nations Trade Data (1962-2000) http://cid.econ.ucdavis.edu/data/undata/undata.html The United Nations Statistical Division Commodity Trade Data Base (1962-2009) http://comtrade.un.org/db/ Direction of Trade Statistics at IMF (1940-2010) 5 day free trial at http://imfstatistics.org/DOT/

My Project Measure disaster impact on specific countries or for a specific time period(s). Measure impact of volcano eruption in Europe in April 2010. Look at impact between 2004 and 2009 (2010). Consider adding other variables. ETH Zurich KOF Globalization Index (http://globalization.kof.ethz.ch/) Economic: Trade % of GDP, FDI, Portfolio Investment, Tariffs Social: Telephone Traffic, Tourism, Foreign Population, Letters, Internet, TV, McDonald’s Restaurants, IKEA stores, Trade in books Political: Number of embassies, Membership in Int’l Organizations

Introduction

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Introduction to introduction to introduction to … Optimization

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