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Return to Home Page. May 30, 2013 Slides & Discussion of Wind, Solar and Water Power Facilities from Seattle to Minneapolis Climate change from IPCC Reports: Beginning overview of IPCC reports Kyoto, Copenhagen, Russia ’ s & America ’ s Role, IPCC Reports etc.

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  1. Return to Home Page May 30, 2013 Slides & Discussion of Wind, Solar and Water Power Facilities from Seattle to Minneapolis Climate change from IPCC Reports: Beginning overview of IPCC reports Kyoto, Copenhagen, Russia’s & America’s Role, IPCC Reports etc.

  2. Was it Decision time in Copenhagen?

  3. Global Climate Change Global Warming Currently within 1ºC of highest Temp. in 125,000 years forced versus unforced fluctuations Radiatively active gases; Carbon dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4) Nitrous oxide (N2O) Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) H2O vapor

  4. Attribution Asks whether observed changes are consistent with expected responses to forcings inconsistent with alternative explanations Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (>90% certainty) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations Anthro+ Nat forcing TS-23

  5. Source: Thompson et al. 2008.ENSO = El Nino/Southern OscillationCOWL= cold ocean, warm land

  6. Source: Thompson et al., 2008.

  7. Source: Thompson e tal., 2008.

  8. Observed Vs. modeled temperature rise since 1860

  9. Computer Model Comparison of Anthropogenic and Natural Forcing (red) vs. Only Natural Forcing (blue) Figure 10.31

  10. Understanding and Attributing Climate Change Observed Expected for all forcings Natural forcing only Anthropogenic warming is likely discernible on all inhabited continents

  11. 1000Yearsof CO2and Temperatures Figure 10.29

  12. Fig. 10.28Global temperature trends, 1880-2003 A trend for you not only to ponder, but to take action for your and the planet's future! Annual & five-year means, the 0 baseline represents the 1951-1980 global average - which is 14ºC (52.2ºF).

  13. Temperature trends

  14. Temperature Anomalies Figure 10.30

  15. 10,000 Years of Greenhouse Gases Figure 10.32

  16. Figure 10.34

  17. What’s in the pipeline and what could come Warming will increase if GHG increase. If GHG were kept fixed at current levels, a committed 0.6°C of further warming would be expected by 2100. More warming would accompany more emission. CO2 Eq 3.4oC = 6.1oF 850 2.8oC = 5.0oF 600 1.8oC = 3.2oF 0.6oC = 1.0oF 400

  18. Surface Temperature Projections Figure 10.35

  19. Changing winds, temperatures and storm tracks •Anthropogenic forcing has likely contributed to circulation changes (storm tracks, winds and temperature patterns) Warmer, wetter winters in Norway; drier in Spain (and North Africa) Source: IPCC 2007, Working Group 1, AR4 (Assessment Report 4).

  20. A1B is a typical “business as usual” (2090-2099) scenario: Global mean warming 2.8oC;Much of land area warms by ~3.5oCArctic warms by ~7oC; would be less for less emission

  21. Projections of Future Changes in Climate New in AR4: Drying in much of the subtropics, more rain in higher latitudes, continuing the broad pattern of rainfall changes already observed.

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