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Henry Aaron. MacLaury Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution (member, DC Health Exchange Board). Health Reform d ifficult, controversial—are you surprised ?. Content of the ACA. Medicaid expansion. Content of the ACA. Medicaid expansion The Big Three (all linked)
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Henry Aaron MacLaury Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution (member, DC Health Exchange Board) Health Reform difficult, controversial—are you surprised?
Content of the ACA • Medicaid expansion
Content of the ACA • Medicaid expansion • The Big Three (all linked) B Insurance market reforms B Individual mandate B Refundable tax credits [exchanges]
Content of the ACA • Medicaid expansion • The Big Three (all linked) B Insurance market reforms B Individual mandate B Refundable tax credits [exchanges] • Pilots, demonstrations, new Medicare benefits, and a whole lot more
Background facts • Reform = redistribution
Background facts • Reform = redistribution • No post-enactment fixes — no ‘conference’ — no ‘technical corrections’ bills
Background facts • Reform = redistribution • No post-enactment fixes — no ‘conference’ — no ‘technical corrections’ bills • Political amity is scarce
The problem with Obamacare is… …it is so-o-o conservative!
Obama’s options: replace what we have with… Vouchers Single-payer Neither could be enacted
The only other option:start with the kludge we have, and build on it
The problem with the ACA approach is… • …it imposes heavy burdens on consumers ill-equipped to bear them • …it imposes worse burdens on administrators http://www.healthreformbeyondthebasics.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Webinar-2.26.14-Common-Eligibility-and-Enrollment-Issues.pdf
What next? • Exchanges improve
What next? • Exchanges improve • More ‘glitches’ to come
What next? • Exchanges improve • More glitches to come • Political war --until 2016!
What next? • Exchanges improve • More glitches to come • Political war --until 2016!
What next? • Exchanges improve • More glitches to come • Political war --until 2016! • And, then, • it all depends…