Institut d’applications et de vulgarisation

1. Indicative elements for planning the management of risks connected to climate change for food security in West Africa Institut d’applications et de vulgarisation science (IAVS [Institute for the application and popularisation of science]) Website: www.iavs.info Email:iavsmail@gmail.com

2. Objectives of this communication To share analysis data and decision-making tools connected with the management of the risks posed by climate change for food security in West Africa

3. Basic data of food security

4. Food security will be seen as a system, made up of four sub-systems or components: the availability of food of good health and nutritional quality;  physical and economic access to food resources ; stability of supply over space and time ; optimum use of the foodstuffs ; Components of food security Stability of supply performance of infrastructures climatic stability political and social stability Availability Food production Food imports Food aid Food stocks Accessibility physical access and economic access • Food usage • Soundness and quality of the food • food practices and habits • health

5. Food insecurity Structural or chronic food insecurity Temporary food insecurity Permanent inability to meet food needs

6. Climate change and its impact on development and food security in West Africa

7. Climate change is change which will take place over time with specific local effects Characterisation of the development of the climate In the short and medium term In the long term Climate upheaval (change of averages and extremes) and environmental change (What models are available for planning, developing and managing water resources as of now?) • Increase in the frequency and intensity of climatic extremes • Increase in temperature, climatic variability and sea levels

8. Climate change implies a variety of threats to development in West Africa Potential effects of climate change on development in West Africa In the short term In the long term • More serious damage because of the shock to fragile systems and communities • Recovery time between two shocks becomes shorter and shorter • Danger of destabilisation and threat to sub-regional integration • Reduced success of development policy To identify the challenges associated with the future climate and to promote as of now models for development and sub-regional integration as a response A forward-looking analysis is essential

9. Risks and opportunities linked to climate change regarding food security In the long term In the short and medium term More frequent and more severe food crises, particularly for the rural zones Chronic food insecurity Opportunities? Need for a forward-looking analysis for decision-making Climate change implies a variety of threats to development in West Africaand may also offer opportunities

10. Projections contained in the international literature for Africa (GIEC, 2007) • In some countries, the rain-dependent agriculture yield could fall by 50% by 2020. It is expected that agricultural output and access to food will be seriously affected in many countries, with serious consequences for food security and malnutrition; • According to a number of climate scenarios, the area of arid and semi-arid land could increase by from 5 to 8% by 2080

12. Planning the management of the risks associated with climate change for food security

13. The scientific, technological and political bases of a response to climate risk Technological innovation and development Scientific research for decision-making Governance: Food security policies and strategies which factor in climate risk as a matter of course

14. Scientific research guidelines for decision-making • the rate and extent of climate change; • the effect of climate change on food security; • sensitivity of food security to climate change; • the socio-economic impact of the effect of climate change on food security; • the development of food security scenarios for West Africa; • methodologies for factoring in considerations linked to climate change in food security policies; • political and institutional pathways for adaptation to climate change.

15. Technological development and innovation Expanding access to agricultural production technologies

16. Aspects of Governance Food security policies and strategies incorporate the considerations linked with climate change.

17. Scenarios for promoting dialogue To facilitate the analysis of the future of food security in West Africa, the IAVS uses three scenarios for climate change and food security. One scenario is a description of one possible future, among many others. Climate change scenarios Scenario S1: a general, radical and negative upheaval of the regional and local climate (averages and extremes) Scenario S2: a climate characterised by increased temperature, and increased frequency and intensity of climatic shocks Scenario S3: a climate characterised by a return to favourable climatic conditions (climate renaissance)

19. The ClimProspect model and it applications to food security The IAVS has developed a model for planning the management of climate risk, the ClimProspect model. If applied, it could provide West Africa with a regional action framework for adaptation to climate change in the food security sector: a multi-stage long-term climate risk management procedure

20. Action framework for adaptation to climate change in the food security sector Short- and medium -term vulnerability management policies and measures Long- term vulnerability management policies and measures to be implemented now Preventive measures Response (crisis management) and relief measures Food security models resilient to climate risk First stage of the adaptation process Second stage of the adaptation process Third stage of the adaptation process Adaptation to climate change factored into development policies and actions Adaptation process broken down into several climate risk management steps or stages