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The 6 th Open Assembly of the Northern Research Forum

The 6 th Open Assembly of the Northern Research Forum Open Assembly Panel: International law, “Soft Laws” and Governance on ice: Economic, Cultural and Political Implications Arctic Shipping Development Prospects Evaluation: Nuclear Icebreaker Fleet in the Northern Sea Route

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The 6 th Open Assembly of the Northern Research Forum

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  1. The 6th Open Assembly of the Northern Research Forum Open Assembly Panel: International law, “Soft Laws” and Governance on ice: Economic, Cultural and Political Implications Arctic Shipping Development Prospects Evaluation: Nuclear Icebreaker Fleet in the Northern Sea Route Khomiakova Tatiana tkhomiakova@yahoo.com Hveragerði, Iceland 3 - 5 September, 2011

  2. 1. Data and Methodology This research is supported by the unique database of potential investment projects in all sectors of Russia’s economy and, in particular, infrastructure development projects in all regions of Russia till year 2020. The database has been collected in the course of the structured request to the Federal authorities, regional authorities and business in Russia. The research methodology comprises of: 1) qualitative methods 2) mapping and geographic analysis techniques (MapInfo); 3) quantitative methods. 2

  3. Transport Corridors, Natural Resources Development Territories, Processing Industry Territories in Russia till Year 2020 - - -Northern Sea Route Natural Resources Development Territories: extraction of fuel and energy mineral resources precious metals and precious stones extraction, extraction of widely-spread resources, extraction of other resources Source: Author 3

  4. Natural Resources Development Territories Generating NSR Cargo Flows 1) Oil and gas Yamal Peninsula - main Arctic energy province for decades to come hydrocacrbon reserves of the Yamal Peninsula - 50 trillion m3 up to 65 million tons of gas will be supplied to the Asian-Pacific markets after the construction of several LNG plants 2) Non-ferrous Metals, Ferrous Metals and Other Ore Minerals about 85% of nickel , 60% of copper reserves, and over 95% of platinum is concentrated in the Norilsk industrial region; manganese ores and complex ores in Novaya Zemlya; ore minerals in Taimyr and Northern Yakutia. 4

  5. New Opportunities for the NSR The NSR cargo load will intensify owing to new railway siding to the White Sea, Barents Sea and Kara Sea. 5

  6. 6 Nuclear Icebreakers Nuclear Container Carrier “Sevmor-put” (1988 2 Decommiss-ioned Special Vessels: mv “Lepse” and mv “Volodarsky” 3 Decommiss-ioned icebreakers: i/b “Lenin” (1959), i/b “Sibir” (1978), i/b “Arctika” (1975) 5 Special Vessels 4 Icebreakers of Arctika Type: i/b “Rossia” (1985), i/b “Sovetsky Soyuz” (1989), i/b “Yamal” (1992), i/b “50 Let Pobedy” (2007) 2 Icebreakers of Taimyr Type: i/b “Taimyr” (1988), i/b “Vaygach” (1990) (river icebreakers) Rossita Nuclear Icebreaker Fleet (operated by Rosatomflot) 10 Nuclear Icebreakers Special Vessels Nuclear-Powered Icebreaker Fleet in Russia 4 special technolo- gical vessels 6

  7. Annual Freight Traffic Activity on the NSR, million ton Source: Cited as in “СМП вновь оживает” (NSR is revitalizing again, April 29, 2011) for years 1987-2010 and author’s estimates for years 2011-2030 7

  8. Transit Potential of the NSR as Nexus between Europe and Asia-Pacific Region 5 years ago, UN estimated transit fotreign cargo: 5-6 million ton a year in the eastern direction 2-3 million ton a year in the western direction The transit routes through the NSR: are quite attractive for foreign cargo owners have great potential to attract transit cargoes in the Arctic In August 2010, a pilot transit of the Arctic ice class 1А Super (Arc5) tanker «SCF Baltica» on the NSR tanker delivered 70,000 of gas condensate of “Novatek” company from Murmansk to Ningbo (China) via the NSR 8

  9. Requirements for an Economical Usage of the NSR operational perspectiveice route optimization system administrative perspectiveregulation and fee structures 9

  10. 4 Sateges of the Nuclear Icebreaker Fleet Development till Year 2030 Stage 1. Years: 2010-2015 Stage 2. Years: 2015-2020 Stage 3. Years: 2020-2025 Stage 4. Years: 2025-2030 10

  11. Stage 1. Years: 2010-2015 11

  12. Stage 2. Years: 2015-2020 12

  13. Stage 3. Years: 2020-2025 13

  14. Stage 4. Years: 2025-2030 14

  15. 7. Conclusions intensity of transportation has a decisive impact on where northern cities and Arctic regions will prosper construction of 3 new universal nuclear icebreakers is of paramount importance in accordance with the projected freight traffic on the NSR 75 million ton in 2020, 90 million ton in 2025, > 100 million ton in 2030 the resource extraction companies (e.g. Norilsk Nickel) outline the importance of nuclear icebrekers on the NSR for rescue operations and safety provision not only safety, but also regulation and fee structures are crucial for economical use of the NSR, particularly by foreign cargo and ship owners to base at least one nuclear icebreaker in the Eastern Arctic 15

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