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Assessment of the WRF Model for Use in Regional Predictability Studies Joshua P. Hacker and Dave P. Baumhefner (NCAR). Motivation Approach building a house Early results Future directions. Why Care?. Understand the capabilities and limitations of a current-generation grid point LAM
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Assessment of the WRF Model for Use in Regional Predictability StudiesJoshua P. Hacker and Dave P. Baumhefner (NCAR) • Motivation • Approach building a house • Early results • Future directions WRF User's Workshop
Why Care? • Understand the capabilities and limitations of a current-generation grid point LAM • Create a stronger foundation for regional predictability studies • To what extent can we treat WRF as a proxy for the real atmosphere? WRF User's Workshop
Mesoscale predictability Resolution Scale interaction Lateral boundaries Building a House WRF WRF User's Workshop
Comparison With Unbounded Model • WRF on hemispheric domain vs. CCM3 • 90 km at 45°N vs. T170 • 10-member ensembles • Perturbations follow Errico-Baumhefner • 6-day forecasts • 4-5 winter 2001-02 cases chosen from different regimes WRF User's Workshop
Future Directions • Establish a valid perfect-model study region in (resolution, domain, forecast length) space • Observation system experiments • Confident predictability studies of mesoscale phenomena WRF User's Workshop