UK CCSC September 2007

1. UK CCSC September 2007 UK CCSC September 2007 Marine Environmental Impacts Jerry Blackford, Nancy Jones, Steve Widdicombe, Dave Lowe, Carol Turley, Andy Rees and others…

2. Modelling Modelling Regional scale impacts of distinct CO2 additions in the North Sea. J C Blackford1,* & N Jones1 R Proctor2 & J Holt2 1 Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK. 2 Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, 6 Brownlow Street, Liverpool, L3 5DA, UK. Abstract A coupled hydrodynamic – ecosystem – carbonate system model applied to the North West European shelf seas is used to simulate the consequences of distinct CO2 additions such as those that could arise from a failure of geological sequestration schemes. The choice of leak scenario is guided by only a small number of available observations and requires several assumptions; hence the simulations reported on are engineered to be worse case scenarios. Only the most extreme scenarios are capable of producing perturbations that are likely to have environmental consequences beyond the immediate vicinity of a leak and these only in restricted areas. We show that, given the available evidence, the environmental impact of a sequestration leak is likely to be insignificant when compared to the expected impact from continued non-mitigated atmospheric CO2 emissions and the subsequent acidification of the marine system. We also conclude that far more research, including both leak simulations and assessment of ecological impacts is necessary to fully understand the impact of CO2 additions to the marine system. Submitted to Marine Pollution bulletin, Under Review

3. Modelling Scenarios

4. Modelling Modelling leak scenarios: ok warning danger OA

5. Modelling Modelling leak scenarios: ok warning danger OA North Site South Site Timing of leak relative to tidal cycle could be crucial

6. Modelling: Predicted sensitivities Pelagic: Functionally Fast Mixing ReSeeding Oxic Redox Anox Benthic: Functionally Slow Recovery is a big issue for the benthic system, not the pelagic

7. Sediment Biogeochemical response. CO2 gas Regulator Natural seawater Acidified seawater pH & temp sensor Water pump for circulation Control box LAN / internet connection Impact of pH : Benthic diversity Nutrient flux Predator / prey interactions Impact of pH on a range of species: Psammechinus miliaris (Sea urchin, hard bottom) Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis (Sea urchin, hard bottom) Brissopsis lyrifera(Sea urchin, burrows in muddy sediment) Echinocardium cordatum (Sea urchin, burrows in sandy sediment) Ophiura ophiura(Brittlestar, sediment surface) Amphiura filiformis (Brittlestar, burrows in sediment) Nereis virens (Polychaete worm, burrows in sediment) Mytilus edulis (Bivalve) Callianassa subteranea (Burrowing shrimp) Upogebia deltuara(Burrowing shrimp) Plymouth Marine Laboratory 4 pH treatments: 8.0, 7.3, 6.5 and 5.6 2 sediment types: Muddy silt and fine sand Norwegian Institute for Water Research

8. pH and macrofaunal diversity S = -32.80 + 6.814pH 25 20 15 10 5 F = 31.10; p = 0.000 0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 J = 0.2297 + 0.071pH 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 Sand Mud 2 weeks 20 weeks 2 weeks 20 weeks S = -13.35 + 5.626pH S = -58.95 + 12.05pH S = -0.66 + 4.427pH 50 35 40 number of species number of indvs evenness 45 30 30 40 35 25 20 30 20 25 10 20 F = 5.57; p = 0.030 F = 61.27; p = 0.000 F = 41.24; p = 0.000 15 0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 NI = -67.0 + 51.10pH NI = -289.5 + 71.62pH NI = -149.4 + 28.86pH NI = -101.9 + 33.99pH 500 400 225 225 200 200 400 300 175 175 300 150 200 150 125 125 200 100 100 100 75 F = 3.75; p = 0.069 F = 20.50; p = 0.000 100 F = 69.49; p = 0.000 F = 17.02; p = 0.001 0 75 50 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 n.s. n.s. n.s. F = 14.48; p = 0.001 Biodiversity is impacted

9. pH and nutrient flux 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 Mud Sand 2 weeks 20 weeks 2 weeks 20 weeks NO2 = -1.573 + 0.278pH NO2 = -2.862 + 0.5081pH NO2 = -1.429 + 0.2496pH 3.0 0.75 0.75 2.5 2.0 0.50 0.50 ns Nitrite 1.5 1.0 0.25 0.25 0.5 0.00 0.00 0 F = 42.65; p = 0.000 F = 15.81; p = 0.001 F = 53.83; p = 0.000 -0.5 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 NO3 = -41.73 + 7.496pH NO3 = 108.5 + 19.00pH 30 60 20 40 10 ns ns Nitrate 20 0 0 -10 F = 35.90; p = 0.000 F = 18.77; p = 0.000 -20 -20 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 NH4 = 104.5 – 13.17pH NH4 = 350.9 – 39.60pH NH4 = 351.1 – 42.73pH NH4 = 85.15 – 9.453pH 60 F = 5.13; p = 0.036 F = 11.75; p = 0.003 160 50 40 40 120 30 30 Ammonium 20 80 20 10 40 0 10 -10 0 F = 30.72; p = 0.000 F = 18.72; p = 0.001 -20 0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 5.5 6.0 7.5 6.5 7.0 8.0 SiO = -70.84 + 18.56pH SiO = -61.94 + 16.31pH 100 100 80 80 Benthic function is affected 60 60 Silicate ns ns 40 40 20 20 0 F = 7.41; p = 0.014 F = 8.85; p = 0.008 0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 Seawater pH Seawater pH

10. Impact on Benthic Physiology Impacts on Cellular Processes in Sediment Dwelling Echinoderms. Brissopsis lyrifera Echinocardium cordatum Ophiura ophiura Amphiura filiformis Muddy Sediments Surface Dwellers Sandy Sediments Deeper Dwellers

11. Impact on Lysosomes Lysosomal Neutral Red Retention Damaged Healthy Damaged lysosomes exhibit pathological responses including enlargement and leakage – the greater the damage the faster the response

12. Impact on Gut Physiology Control pH 8 pH 7.6 pH 7.2 pH 6.8 Brissopsis Echinocardium Ophiura

13. Impact on reproductive organs Control pH 7.6 pH 7.2 pH 6.8

14. Experiments: example regrowth Arm regeneration in Amphiura filiformis at low pH Hannah Wood • 35 day exposure • stress response • Nutritional quality of regenerated arms ? • Long term, slow onset exposures

15. Policy & Communications Carol: Presentation on CCS and OA to Jonathon Shaw (Minister for Marine, Landscape and Rural Affairs and Minister for the South East);Deborah Wells (Senior Private Secretary to Jonathon Shaw); Trevor Hutchings (Deputy Director, Fishing Industry Management Division - Defra), Diana Linskey (Deputy Director Marine Environment Division - Defra); Gail Clarke (Fishing Industry Management Division - Defra); Linda Gilroy (MP, Plymouth) during visit to PML - July 07 Steve: “Predicting the impact of seawater acidification on the marine environment” 2nd Meeting of the Scientific Group Intercessional Technical Working Group on CO2 Sequestration within the framework of the Convention on the Prevention of Marine Pollution by Dumping Wastes and Other Matter, 1972, Oslo, Norway 16th-20th April 2007 Mel, Jerry, Steve: “Ocean Acidification and Carbon Capture and Storage” DefraPolicy ‘Snapshot’ presentation, London 21st May 2007. Steve: “Predicting the impact of leakage on the North Sea ecosystem” Carbon Capture and Storage Association, Environmental Impact Assessment Workshop, London 23rd August 2007. Future Carol: Planned outreach activities in next 3 months: presentations at Royal Soc on CCS organised by institutes of Biology Chemistry and Physics and at a workshop in Bergen Jerry: Carbon Transportation and Storage, London, 4th December. www.iom3.org.events/carbon

16. Future Plans Talking with BP re sensible leakage scenarios. Fine scale modelling, 1.8 km grid and ~50m Experiment: Impact of acidification on the uptake of metals by marine organisms In October 2007 an experiment will be conducted that addresses the following hypothesis: H0: Seawater acidification will not affect the bioaccumulation of metals in 4 different marine organisms. We will look at 2 elevated pH treatments plus controls. We will add organisms from 4 different taxa (annelid, mollusc, crustacean and echinoderm) to sediment from the Fal estuary which is naturally contaminated by metals. After a period of exposure we will analyse the organisms for metal bioaccumulation. Metals to be assessed are potentially: Ag, As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn.