Contact : Carlo Lavalle Joint Research Centre of the EC

1. Activities of the Joint Research Centre (JRC) relevant for the assessment of spatial developmentin Europe Contact : Carlo Lavalle Joint Research Centre of the EC Institute for Environment and Sustainability Land Management Unit Ph: **39 0332 785231; Fax: **39 0332 789085 E-mail : carlo.lavalle@jrc.it

2. Institutional Framework Committee of the Regions Court of Auditors European Parliament Council of Ministers Economic and Social Committee Court of Justice European Commission TRADE INFOR. RESEARCH JRC ENVI. AGRI EUROSTAT REGIO IND. Commissioner of Research Institute for Environment and Sustainability EI IPSC IRMM IAM IHCP ITU IPTS

3. MOLAND :Monitoring land cover/use dynamics for sustainable urban and regional development NATURAL HAZARD :Protection of the environment and the citizens against floods (LISFLOOD) and forest fires ESDI :European Spatial Data Infrastructure Agri-environmental Indicators – Landscape characterisation Summary of Activities

4. MOLAND(Monitoring Land use/cover Dynamics)Towards Sustainable Urban and Regional Development Contact : Carlo Lavalle Joint Research Centre of the EC Institute for Environment and Sustainability Land Management Unit Ph: **39 0332 785231; Fax: **39 0332 789085 E-mail : carlo.lavalle@jrc.it Web : http://moland.jrc.it

5. MOLAND: Towards sustainable urban and regional development Aim: Provide a methodology to assess, monitor and forecast the (sustainable) development of urban and regional environments at EU level Specific applications: Assessment of sustainable urban and regional development: Definition and computation of territorially-based indicators to allow integrated approaches Development of scenarios for long-term strategies of sustainable development Evaluate and compare alternative scenariosof spatial planning (land-use) and policy Determine the critical factors in the input spatial plans and policies Assessment and evaluation of policies with territorial impact: Application of the methodology for impact assessment of Regional Development interventions (SF, Cohesion Funds, CI) Introduction of Strategic Environmental Assessment concepts and tools in urban / regional planning Complementing the ESPON Research Programme Networking with local/regional/national authorities

6. MOLAND : Study Areas in Europe

7. Three inter-linked components: Database preparation(CHANGE): - Measure past and present land use evolution in selected areas (urban, region, corridor,…) The reference (current) land use database is derived typically for 1998-2000. The historical database is computed with data from time windows in mid ’50, end of ’60, and ’80 (only 2 dates for larger areas). Statistics and socio-economic datasets are merged into the GIS Development of indicators(UNDERSTAND):Identification and computation of territorial and sustainable development indicators to provide a synthetic assessment of urban and regional landscapes. Static and dynamic environmental indicators comparable across Europe Development of scenarios (FORECAST):related to urban evolution and assess sustainability of regions for forecasting future land use development and its impact on environment, under alternative spatial planning and policy scenarios develop scenarios of growth to formulate and evaluate long term strategy for sustainable development. MOLAND : The Methodology

8. MOLAND : The methodology CHANGE UNDERSTAND FORECAST 1960 1948 1997 1981 Statistics and trends Land use evolution 2010 Scenarios of future evolutions Statistical data (demography, transport, socio-economic, etc.) Integrated territorial indicators

9. MOLAND – UNDERSTAND: Indicators for urban and regional development • Land use indicators • Urban sprawl • Soil Sealing • Fragmentation indices • Urban/Regional development integrated indicators • European Common Indicators • Strategic Environmental Assessment of TEN/T

10. Green edge Habitat suitability Impact of transport corridor (Dublin) (Dublin) (Trans-border Alpine site) 1997 Potential noise pollution 1981 (Munich) 1960 1948 Moland – Examples of indicators Access to green areas (Copenhagen) Urban sprawl Land use transformation Road network density Commuters vs land use Industr./Comm growth (Dresden) Population Growth and location Urban Growth Comparative analysis (Grenoble)

11. Publication of first results Towards an urban atlas Assessment of spatial data on 25 European cities and urban areas. Environmental Issue Report No. 30 Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg. ISBN 92-9167-470-2. 131 pp. Joint publication of European Environment Agency and European Commission – DG Joint Research Centre. Available on-line at: http://moland.jrc.it or: http://www.eea.eu.int/

12. Land use (2025) MOLAND – FORECAST - Method Economic Activities Employment Housing demand Inter-regional migration Transport flows Land use demand Spatial planning and policy recommendations and guidelines

13. Support to the definition of the Urban Thematic Strategy Chair of the Working Group on Sustainable Urban Management Creation of a network of cities/regions Development of scenarios of urban growth at EU dimension To validate EU policies ( territorial diversity) Formalise the methodology in the ‘regional policy’ frame Impact evaluation of Structural Programmes (ERDF, Cohesion, CI,…) Pilot project in Northern Ireland/Ireland ESPON -> Moland in the Work Programme SEA concepts in regional planning Integrated modeling for concepts such as Peripherality/accessibility/… An EU ‘artificial layer’ from CORINE 2000 ( at scale 1:25 000) (proposal) Concept of “dynamic indicators” City <=> region (carrying capacity and functional area) MOLAND – Next Steps

14. NATURAL HAZARD Contacts: guido.schmuck@jrc.it(natural hazards project leader) ad.de-roo@jrc.it(flood & water activities)jesus.san-miguel@jrc.it(forest fires) http://natural-hazards.jrc.it

15. Natural Hazards • Forest Fires: • Processing chain to develop forest fire risk indices • Structural Risk index • Dynamic index: vegetation status, meteorological observations • Advanced fire risk index based on the integration of all indices • Processing chain for burnt area mapping and fire damage assessment • Floods: • Flood simulation modelling system for impact assessment • Processing chain for flood extend mapping and damage assessment •  • Flood risk maps • Pre-operational system for Flood-watch • European Flood Forecasting System

16. Development of LISFLOOD modelling system large catchments: Oder, Meuse (1km grid) small catchments: Oder-subc, Meuse-subc, Toce (100m grid) Europe (5km grid) Simulation of land-use scenario on flood and water balance Flood prevention scenario case-studies Oder (IKSO / Oder-LISFLOOD; OderRegio / INTERREG) Meuse (Meuse Water Authority) Elbe & Danube (foreseen for 2003/2004) Other European Transnational basins (foreseen for 2005-2006) European Flood Forecasting System Flood pre-warning and flood risk Flood extent and damage forecasting Realtime tests already done: Oder (2001), Elbe & Danube (2002) Contribution to Catchment Information System FLOOD - Main Activities

17. LISFLOOD-WB Water balance model LISFLOOD-FS Flood simulation model LISFLOOD-FF Flood forecasting model LISFLOOD-FP Flood Inundation model The LISFLOOD modelling system Floodplain-scale Catchment-scale

18. LISFLOOD outputs Discharge Evapotranspiration – time series Evapotranspiration Water Source Areas Soil moisture storage Capacity

19. EUROPEAN FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEM (EFFS) Flood forecasts for all major rivers: 10 day weather forecasts: rainfall temperature + LISFLOOD MODEL 10-day forecast Meuse: 20-30 January 1995 with uncertainty range discharge forecast Example of a warning report

20. European Forest Fire Risk Forecasting System (EFFRFS)

21. FIRE POTENTIAL INDEX Structural Risk Vegetation Stress Risk Meteorological Risk Fire Potential Index

22. BURNT AREA AND DAMAGE ASSESSMENT: PORTUGAL 2000

23. European Forest Fire Information System EFFIS Modules Fire Risk Fire Risk Customer and user: Products: Burnt Areas EP • Cartography • Tables • Statistics Regeneration Member States Risk zoning EC Biomass CO2 emiss.