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Reducing Deforestation as a Mitigation Option Session Introduction Brian Murray

Reducing Deforestation as a Mitigation Option Session Introduction Brian Murray. Forestry and Agriculture Greenhouse Gas Modeling Forum Shepherdstown, WV March 8, 2007. CO 2 Emissions Sources: Global. Deforestation accounts for ~ 20% of global CO2 emissions.

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Reducing Deforestation as a Mitigation Option Session Introduction Brian Murray

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  1. Reducing Deforestation as a Mitigation OptionSession IntroductionBrian Murray Forestry and Agriculture Greenhouse Gas Modeling Forum Shepherdstown, WV March 8, 2007

  2. CO2 Emissions Sources: Global Deforestation accounts for ~ 20% of global CO2 emissions From: Union of Concerned Scientists. Recognizing Forest’s Role in Climate Change. http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/solutions/recognizing-forests-role-in-climate-change.htm l

  3. Share of emissions from deforestation in key countries Source: Center for Clean Air Policy, 2000. From Keila Aires, Duke U Master’s Project draft, Feb 2007

  4. Annual Forest Cover Loss in Brazil 20% loss of Amazonian forest cover since 1970 Is rate declining? Source: Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE) http://www.obt.inpe.br/prodes/prodes_1988_2005.htm

  5. US Historic Deforestation Forest area was one-half the land base in 1630, one-third now - 300 million acres converted Source: Smith, W.B, P.D. Miles, J.S. Vissage, and S.A. Pugh. 2004. Forest Resources of the United States, 2002. General Technical Report NC-241. St. Paul, MN: USDA, Forest Service, North Central Research Station.

  6. Avoided Deforestation as a Policy Issue • Kyoto Protocol (KP) did not include avoided deforestation as a CDM component • Concerns about permanence, leakage, additionality • Sovereignty issues • Result: Foregone incentive for protecting tropical forests • Recent proposals to include avoided deforestation in post-2012 KP • COP 9 (2003) petition to include deforestation in the CDM • COP 11 (2005) Papua New Guinea Proposal: market-based compensation at the national level for reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) • Brazil proposal: “Positive incentives” for developing countries that voluntary reduce emissions from deforestation • not tied to any UNFCCC commitment • Recipient country does not take on a commitment • “Buyers” do not reduce commitments • Not tied to a GHG credit market

  7. Avoided Deforestation as a Policy Issue II Basic premise under either approach • Establishment of a reference national carbon emissions rate (i.e., baseline) • Historical reference period? • BAU projection? • Direct measurement and monitoring of actual rates after policy in place • Compensation for going below the reference rate

  8. Implementation Issues • Policy Scope • Deforestation • Degradation • Developing reference case estimate for the country • Data and methods available • Land use/land cover change • Carbon • Responsibility for the estimates • Measurement, monitoring and verification • Within country measures to accomplish target

  9. Today’s Session • Sandra Brown: Data and Methods for Estimating Reference Case; Measurement and Monitoring • Brent Sohngen: Modeling Economic Opportunities Globally • Ralph Alig: Lessons learned from deforestation modeling in US

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