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R e t r o s p e c t i v e><e v i t c e p s o r t e R

R e t r o s p e c t i v e><e v i t c e p s o r t e R. Retrospective. December 9 2004 Epidemiology 511 W. A. Kukull. Distribution and determinants of disease in populations. Disease occurrence in populations Measures of occurrence Measures of association Research designs Descriptive

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R e t r o s p e c t i v e><e v i t c e p s o r t e R

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  1. Retrospective><evitcepsorteR Retrospective December 9 2004 Epidemiology 511 W. A. Kukull

  2. Distribution and determinants of disease in populations • Disease occurrence in populations • Measures of occurrence • Measures of association • Research designs • Descriptive • Analytic, observational • Experimental

  3. Association or causal association • Statistical tests and calculations • The role of ‘chance’ • Bias • Unintended mistakes affect conclusions • Confounding • Did other risk factors influence our observed association? • Effect Modification/Interaction

  4. Screening for disease • Sensitivity/specificity • Predictive values +/- • Effect of disease prevalence on PV • Choosing “test” cutoff; ROC curve • Using sequential tests to reduce FP

  5. Biomarkers for exposure and disease • Biologic markers can be used to characterize exposure status and/or recognize disease process • Helps to • stratify populations by susceptibility • elaborate exposure measurement • establish biologic plausibility, and process • gain statistical power • improve dose-response estimation

  6. Cohort studies • Retrospective or concurrrent • Initial Non-response • Disease incidence • Loss to f/u and censoring • Exposure measurement • Forming exposure groups • Limitations

  7. Case-Control studies • Choosing cases • Incident or prevalent • Clinic or population based • Choosing controls • The “study base” and representativeness • Exposure measurement • misclassification • Analytic tools • Adjusting for confounders: M-H; multivariate • Limitations

  8. Randomized trials • Subject selection and randomization • Treatments/Exposures • Masking/Blinding • Experimental designs: compliance • Stopping rules • Ethics: assigning to “high risk” group • Intent to treat analysis?

  9. Genes: Contents and results Genotype Gene (DNA) Gene Product Functional and/or Structural Effects Symptoms and signs Phenotype

  10. Six patterns of gene-environment interaction (after Khoury)

  11. The 2 x 4 table(after Khoury, Epidemiol Rev, 19, 1997)

  12. Summation • Definitions • Research Designs and calculations • Causation and data interpretation • Reasoning about results • You Win! Free pass to consult with me about any of your future Epi studies • Thanks for listening and participating

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