1 / 11

Within-country electoral context: candidates heterogeneity as determinant of voting behaviour

This research study explores the impact of candidates' features and characteristics on voting behavior in the Polish National Election Study. It investigates how candidates' heterogeneity influences voter turnout and support for party lists, and examines the influence of gender balance on voting behavior.

juanitah
Download Presentation

Within-country electoral context: candidates heterogeneity as determinant of voting behaviour

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Within-country electoral context:candidates heterogeneity as determinant of voting behaviour MikolajCzesnik Polish National Election Study

  2. Research problem • Context as an important determinant of voting behaviour (e.g. the True European Voter project, done within the COST framework) • The problem of within-country electoral context • Candidates constitute such a context • Female candidates and representation

  3. Research questions • What is the impact of the candidates on voting behaviour? • How their features and characteristics influence voting behaviour? • Does gender balance (on the list) influence voting behaviour?

  4. Theory • On the one hand, classical accounts suggest that who are the candidates, how many they are etc., matters (starting from Downs 1957) • On the other hand, knowledge about Polish elections, candidates and voters suggests that this element of electoral politics in Poland does not matter at all

  5. Hypotheses • H1: Candidates heterogeneity in the constituency increases voter turnout (the higher the heterogeneity, the higher the vt) • H2: Candidates heterogeneity on the party list increases support for this party list (the higher the heterogeneity, the higher the support)

  6. Hypotheses • H1: The more females on the lists (on constituency-level), the higher the voterturnout • H2: The more females on the list, the higher the support for this list

  7. Research design • Multi-level modelling; constituency level included in the analysis (on this level candidates’ hetero/homogeneity can be estimated)

  8. Research design • Aggregate-level analysis: • a) is turnout higher in constituencies with higher % of females? • b) does higher % of females on list increase support for this list?

  9. Research design • Individual-level analysis: • a) is probability of voting higher among voters from constituencies with higher % of females? • b) is probability of voting for particular party higher among voters from constituencies where list have higher % of females?

  10. Data • EAST PaC data combined with the PNES data (exit-poll data and 'normal’ post-election survey; also official data)

  11. Thanks!

More Related