What Complexity Science has to offer Industry

1. Prof Paul Davies Thales UK What Complexity Science has to offer Industry March 2013

2. How I discovered complexity... March 2013

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7. Open Systems Emergence Autopoiesis Holism vs Reductionism March 2013

8. Modern views of complex systems March 2013

9. What can complexity science offer industrial operations? March 2013

10. Industrial projects - the basic V model March 2013

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15. Multiple nested V models March 2013

16. PSS = Problem (proposed) System Solution Assess Assess Assess Analyse Analyse Analyse Generate options Generate options Generate options Ring Value Lifecycle model March 2013

17. Potential modelling approaches • Explicit chained activities (classical project management tools) + Monte Carlo simulation • Stochastic models introducing rework • phase networks? • graph-theoretic critical path analysis? • ODEs with feedback loops • System dynamics • Representation using category theory • ?? March 2013

18. System Dynamics Example Bass, F.M., 1969. A New Product Growth For Model Consumer Durables. Management Science, Vol. 15(5), pp. 215 – 227. Sterman, J.D., 2000. Business dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a complex world 1st ed. S. Isenberg, ed., Jeffrey J. Shelstad. March 2013

19. Rework Loop Cooper, K. G., & Mullen, T. W. (1993). Plowshares - The Rework Cycles of Defense and Commerical Software. American Programmer, 6(5). Cooper, K., & Lee, G. (2009). Managing the Dynamics of Projects and Changes at Fluor (pp. 1–27). March 2013 Suggested by Cooper (1993) and used with System Dynamics (Cooper & Lee, 2009)

20. Our Model March 2013

21. Model Outputs March 2013 Cumulative Work Done Graph

22. Model Outputs March 2013 Work Rate Graph

23. Discussion of Results Mawby, D., & Stupples, D. (2002). Systems Thinking for Managing Projects. Engineering Management Conference, 2002. IEMC ’02 (pp. 344–349). IEEE International. Putnam, L. H. (1978). A General Empirical Solution to the Macro Software Sizing and Estimating Problem. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, SE-4(4), 345–361. March 2013

24. Discussion of Results Mawby, D., & Stupples, D. (2002). Systems Thinking for Managing Projects. Engineering Management Conference, 2002. IEMC ’02 (pp. 344–349). IEEE International. Putnam, L. H. (1978). A General Empirical Solution to the Macro Software Sizing and Estimating Problem. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, SE-4(4), 345–361. March 2013 The model is producing planned parameter profiles similar to what is expected, and which fit the PNR distribution suggested by Putnam (1978) and incorporating the effects of rework as suggested by Mawby & Stupples (2002) The underlying behavioral assumptions are being explored with a sensitivity analysis The model needs calibration and validation against real project data

25. Sensitivity Analysis March 2013

26. So, why engage with Academia? March 2013

27. 4 3 2 1 Q4/08 Q1/05 -1 Economic Indicators “By 2020, 90% of the world’s manufacturing will be based in the BRIC countries” <7,000 Elec Eng graduates / year White collar average wages: UK $44000; India $4000 227,000 Elec Eng applicants / year “If it was purely down to the cost of wages, the UK would have gone out of business years ago” March 2013

28. So why is the UK still in business? • Because we do some things better: • Innovation • Staying ahead of the competition • System integration and risk-taking March 2013

29. Development Strategic Key Questions Research n Research 1 10 years Consultancy <0.5% 3-5 years Universities etc ~3% 0-3 years Internal 17 - 35% Innovation Streams March 2013

30. Technology Readiness Levels Innovation funding “Valley of Death” March 2013

31. Research Focus Recruitment Focus CPD Focus Graduate Recruitment/Milk Rounds Summer Placements Talks to final year students Public courses Tailored courses Encouraging participation in STEM subjects PhD & EngD Research Undergraduate University Schools Collaborative Research FP7 etc Postgraduate & Research Industrial Clustered Research (MVCE etc) Image Focus Industry Advisory Panels Sponsored Chairs Visiting Professors Teaching Supporting Masters Projects Supporting Doctoral Students (PhD & EngD) Funded Research ASTRAEA, OCIAM, etc Techno Watch General Model of University Activity Thales (UK) March 2013

32. Summary of Technical Research Engagement CP = Collaborative Projects SA = Strategic Alliance IC = Industrial Clustered CR = Contract Research SP/D = Student PhD Projects SP/M = Student MSc Projects UP = University Projects March 2013

33. What you’re selling... • “Transferrable skills” • Mathematical modelling • Proven ability to follow a single complex project through to completion, plus reporting rigour • Understanding of the fundamental interconnectedness of all things • Comfort with, and ability to represent, uncertainty • What you haven’t got, necessarily: • Collaborative project skills • Awareness / skills in the commercial world • Multidisciplinarity March 2013

34. Questions? March 2013