POPULAR COMMITMENT TO AN EVER CLOSER UNION? A PRAGMATIC APPROACH PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE FBA

1. 1 POPULAR COMMITMENT TO AN EVER CLOSER UNION? A PRAGMATIC APPROACH PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE FBA CSPP, U. of Aberdeen & Visiting Professor, RSCAS, EUI 15 May - 15 June email: prof_r_rose@yahoo.co.uk www.abdn.ac.uk/cspp

2. 2 INTEGRATION BY STEALTH: A DYNAMIC PROCESS *Intergovernmental deliberations among elites and technocrats *Functional spillover *The acquis: no going back *Path dependent movement by fits and starts *A closer union by tacit commitment of citizens

3. 3 MEDIAN EUROPEAN OF TWO MINDS ABOUT EVER CLOSER UNION Q. 80 Do you think unification has already gone too far or should it be pushed further? Source: 2009 European Election Study, q. 80. Number of respondents, 27,069. Leave as is group includes 9 percent no opinion.

4. 4 APPROVAL OF EU DOES NOT GUARANTEE WANTING MORE INTEGRATION Attitudes toward integration of all saying country's membership of the EU is a good thing. Source: 2009 European Election Study. Figure shows division of opinion on q 79 among the 17,079 respondents who described the EU as a good thing for their country.

5. 5 MEPs OVERWHELMINGLY FOR EVER CLOSER UNION MEP's national party endorses more integration Source: EU Profiler data base of party programmes for the 2009 European Parliament election (www.euprofiler.eu).

6. 6 VOTERS NOT COMMITTED TO EP POSITION ON EVER CLOSER UNION Fits: EP voter agrees with national party position Uncommitted: Voter has no opinion on integration Misfit: Voter's position disagrees with party Source: Combines EU Profiler data on national party positions on integration with European Election Study data on attitudes toward integration of those EES respondents naming the party they voted for (N: 12,496).

7. 7 THE AMBIGUITY OF EQUILIBRIUM *STATIC: Hard to get anything agreed, stagnation *NEGATIVE FEEDBACK from some spillovers .French and Dutch rejection of Constitution for Europe .Schengen and immigration .Eurozone crisis *EXTERNAL CHALLENGES .2008 global economic crisis .Trans-national terrorism

8. 8 POPULAR COMMITMENT? *Commitment = Awareness + Understanding + Endorsement *Costly policies can't be achieved by stealth; need popular endorsement (see Rose and Peters, 1978; Majone, 2010) * EU efforts to engage grassroots citizens: .Turnout at EP elections .Astroturf consultations with organizations .So-called Citizens' Initiative

9. 9 INTEGRATION WITHOUT STEALTH: A PRAGMATIC APPROACH Pragmatism: Evaluating actions by their practical consequences Diagnose problems by examining experience. Examine cause and effect links in proposed solution Evaluate likely consequences for country and for citizens Decisions arrived at issue by issue

10. 10 A PRAGMATIC APPROACH TO INTEGRATION Promote specific goals; ever closer union a byproduct National commitments to one-size-fits-all-countries policies open to test by referendums Coalitions of the willing in place of vetoes or a fudged, ambiguous consensus Dynamic consequences of differential cooperation. .If laggards catch up with leaders, an ever-closer union .If differential national judgments maintained, growth in a Europe of vectors