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The Development of Risk Analysis: A Personal Perspective

The Development of Risk Analysis: A Personal Perspective. Richard Wilson Mallinkrodt Professor of Physics (emeritus). March 19 th 2012 2:30pm Harvard School of Public Health. 1800s– Try out the technology, modify if any problems arise.

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The Development of Risk Analysis: A Personal Perspective

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  1. The Development of Risk Analysis: A Personal Perspective Richard Wilson Mallinkrodt Professor of Physics (emeritus) March 19th 2012 2:30pm Harvard School of Public Health

  2. 1800s– Try out the technology, modify if any problems arise. In 1833 the first passenger railway in the world Liverpool to Manchester, an engine ran down a man, a Member of Parliament, who failed to get out of the way. Was the outcome good or bad? Depends on his Party affiliation!

  3. Historical Approach

  4. The Importance of Models Every risk calculation involves a model. The simplest is: NEXT YEAR WILL BE LIKE LAST YEAR. NEXT YEAR WILL BE LIKE LAST YEAR WITH IMPROVEMENTS. EVERY MODEL HAS ASSUMPTIONS WHICH MUST BE STATED CLEARLY.

  5. Wigner: “whenever there is a lot of energy in one place and a lot of people in the same place, there is a potential for disaster.” 1848– no petroleum products could be brought up the Thames River closer than 30 miles east of London Bridge (report on Canvey Island, 1978)

  6. Large Accidents in New Technologies After World War II, the old paradigm was inadequate: “try it and if it gives trouble, fix it” Society now demands evidence, in advance, that the technology is safe. The first major example was nuclear energy. WHY?

  7. A number of reasons have been suggested: • The new technology was in hands of fundamental scientists from start.(1946) The US Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) • The new technology used new physical principles. • The new technology arose simultaneously with a new deadly form of war. • The new technology posed unprecedented hazards.

  8. Atomic Energy Commission Outstanding Scientists: Glenn Seaborg, John Von Neuman, Robert Bacher, Edward Teller, Eugene Wigner and Richard Feynman Established an Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards (ACRS) to advise on safety.

  9. Defense in Depth (a name borrowed from the military) Imagine the worst thing that can reasonably go wrong in the reactor, the “Maximum Credible Accident” devise an engineered safeguard to prevent it Large reactors, particularly first in a series, in unpopulated areas, following Wigner’s principle. The Reactor Safety Study (Rasmussen et al. 1975)

  10. Find Transparency!

  11. What questions are you asking? IF YOU DON’T KNOW… THE CHANCE OF A SENSIBLE ANSWER IS REDUCED.

  12. What about public perception?

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