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Agenda

Tactical Conflict Assessment and Planning Framework (TCAPF) Worldwide Joint Training and Scheduling Conference 27 August 2009. Why TCAPF? What is TCAPF? TCAPF Process TCAPF Analysis Current Use Next Steps Program of Instruction. Agenda. Why TCAPF?. Typical Metrics

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Agenda

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  1. Tactical Conflict Assessment and Planning Framework(TCAPF)Worldwide Joint Training and Scheduling Conference 27 August 2009

  2. Why TCAPF? What is TCAPF? TCAPF Process TCAPF Analysis Current Use Next Steps Program of Instruction Agenda

  3. Why TCAPF? Typical Metrics Increased number of Afghan security forces Increased number of insurgents killed Kill or Capture Long-term Development DoD’s competency USAID’s competency TCAPF • Typical Metrics • 80% of Afghan children attend school • 3,000 km of all-weather roads • 85% access to basic health care INSTABILITY • Outcomes (Between 2007-2008) • 39% increase in civilians killed in ISAF military operations • 33% increase in IEDs • 119% increase in attacks on ASF • 36% decrease in support for the Afghan Government (since 2006) • Decreased NGO presence in South and East 3

  4. What is TCAPF? • A framework to identify, prioritize, and mitigate the causes of instability in an AO by… • …analyzing 4 types of information… • Operational Environment (PMESII) • Cultural Environment (Key groups, Dispute resolution mechanisms…) • Drivers of Stability/Instability (Grievances, Key actors, Means & Motivations) • Local perceptions (versus our assumptions) • …in order to develop stabilization activities that… • Increase local support for the government • Decrease local support for anti-government forces • Increase local institutional and societal capability and capacity • …by focusing on the activities’ impact, not simply output

  5. Measure Impact Implement Activity Assess Decide Choose Monitoring Methods Direct Plan Direct Assess Execute Assess Assess Determine Output Indicators Plan Identify Activities Determine Impact Indicators TCAPF Process Evaluation Implementation Collection MDMP “Measure” “See” Collect / Log Local Perceptions POPULATION Identify & Prioritize Objectives “Understand” “Act” Choose Monitoring Methods Design 5 Analysis

  6. The Tactical Conflict Questionnaire Standardized questionnaire used at the tactical level to facilitate discussions with locals and identify causes of instability Only four questions: “Have there been changes in the village population in the last year”? “What are the most important problems facing the village?” “Whom do you believe can solve your problems?” “What should be done first to help the village?” Always ask “WHY”? Process – TCAPF Questionnaire We see things from this guy’s perspective BUT through TCAPF… We can see them from this guy’s TCAPF Focus is always LOCAL 7

  7. Process – TCAPF Database 7

  8. TCAPF Analysis 8 8

  9. “Who Do You BelieveCan Solve Your Problems?” 9

  10. “What Should be Done Firstto Help the Village?” 10

  11. 3-509th Weekly District Snapshot 11

  12. Monthly District Stability Report

  13. Current Use COIN Academy Nation-Wide RC SOUTH RC EAST 13

  14. Proposed Next Steps Create centralized, UNCLASSIFIED TCAPF database Implement across U.S. and Coalition forces in Afghanistan – HQs, Brigades, SF, CA, MTT/PTT Expand among civilian agencies in Afghanistan – USAID, DOS, USDA, Coalition counterparts, Implementing Partners, Afghan ministries Expand to all PRTs Establish Stabilization Advisors at each BN, PRT, and above Apply tactical patience to maintain quality as system builds 14

  15. TCAPF Program of Instruction • Two to three days of classroom instruction • Collection – Companies down to Team Leader level • Analysis, Design, Evaluation – Battalion staffs and above • Squad STX Lanes – 1 day per company • Collecting TCAPF data from role players • Follow-up Key Leader Engagement • Company Cmd/BN Staff STX lane – half day • Analyze and Design activities based on collected TCAPF data 15

  16. QUESTIONS? 16

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