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Industry Outlook Where Are We Now and Where Will Be Tomorrow? Especially Prepared For EDPA December 2 , 2011. By: Douglas L. Ducate President & CEO Center for Exhibition Industry Research. U.S. History.
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Industry Outlook Where Are We Now and Where Will Be Tomorrow?Especially Prepared ForEDPADecember 2, 2011 By: Douglas L. Ducate President & CEO Center for Exhibition Industry Research
U.S. History • Late 1950’s Interstate Highway system completed and commercial introduction of the Jet airplane. • 1959-Las Vegas-Rotunda + 90,000sf exhibit hall • 1960-McCormick Place first large facility • Real expansion in 1970’s making industry 40 years old • CEIR Census identifies more than 14,000 meetings with exhibitions held each year. • 10,000 are B to B events • 67% are owned by associations.
FacilitiesHotel to Exhibit Hall • Show Room • Bellman • Catering • Banquet • Engineering • Housekeeping • Ambiance in Place • Concrete • Material Handling • Food Service • Furniture Rental • Utility Service • Cleaning Service • Ambiance Temporary
Number of U.S. exhibitions dropped from 11,094 to 11,041 or -0.5% Added Mexico with 722 events Total U.S., Mexico & Canada 14,541 More than 50% of all the exhibitions held in the entire world Average size in U.S. 47,984 NSF +25% CEIR Census 2010
2,649 or 24% of U.S. events B to C 37% of U.S. events held in exhibition/CC 44% held in hotels 67% owned by associations 33% owned by media companies and entrepreneurs CEIR Census, cont’d.
How are we Doing Today ?
CEIR Index was down a record 9 consecutive quarters Index turned positive Q3/Q4 2010 & Q1,2 &3 2011. In 2010, five sectors had positive YoY performance Losses in 2008-2010 combined 15% compared to 2001/2002 loss of 5% Overall back to 2000 level Number of exhibiting companies and NSF sold the biggest losers The Reality of Where We Are
Total Index Real GDP • Q1 3.1 2.2 • Q2 1.0 1.6 • Q3 2.6 1.5 CEIR Index 2011
New source produced economic analysis New approach to calculating averages using geometric method Restated the first 10 years Established new 2009 base year Added a predictive element to enhance projecting future performance Where we are, cont’d
Geometric Averaging (3) Mi j = f (Oj, FDj, EMj, Zj, RCE, TE)
CG Sector vs. Overall Exhibition Industry Total, Year-on-Year % Change
Deeper recession-peak to trough 5.1% not 4.1% as earlier reported Improvement Q1 declined in Q2 Index outperforming GDP Index slowed Q1 to Q2 Recovery varies by sector but on average 3% a year if no further setbacks in the economy. Predict Conference
THE PERFORMANCE OF THE OVERALL EXHIBITION INDUSTRY IN 2011 H1 WAS IN LINE WITH OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.
Generation X-Ages 28-39 Generation Y-Ages 19-27 Gen X-20 million Gen Y-60 million Combined…more than the baby boomers Much greater net worth and more liberal spending practices The Younger Generations
Like the face to face experience to network Consider attending a professional perquisite See new products Find new suppliers Learn more about a product or service they have heard or read about Browse without sales pressure Why They Attend
56% E-mail 19% Direct mail 25% various How do they get information?
Power of Exhibitions Event Messaging – What Resonates? • Be genuine…authentic…DO NOT overpromise • Communicate in small bites…easy to digest • Use social media CAREFULLY • Schedule messages early in the day • Create and promote event website • Upgrade websites • Measure results
Power of Exhibitions Exhibitor Advice • Every visitor is important…treat with respect • Don’t speculate on degree of interest • Include younger workers among exhibit staff • Be prepared to handle young children (candy, play area, computer games) • Interactive versus static exhibit • One-on-many versus one-on-one
Can the industry return to pre-2000 levels? Will companies that have reduced to smaller spaces return to larger spaces? Will destinations cutting essential services continue to subsidize Convention Centers? How will destinations know when they can no longer compete? Questions
