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DSM2 Calibration: Optimization Weighting Scheme Using Management Objectives

DSM2 Calibration: Optimization Weighting Scheme Using Management Objectives. Marianne Guerin. Observation: DSM2 is Used as a Delta Management Tool. Define calibration metric in operational terms: First: Define which targets - stage, flow, EC - are important to Delta water management

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DSM2 Calibration: Optimization Weighting Scheme Using Management Objectives

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  1. DSM2 Calibration:Optimization Weighting Scheme Using Management Objectives Marianne Guerin

  2. Observation: DSM2 is Used as a Delta Management Tool • Define calibration metric in operational terms: • First: Define which targets - stage, flow, EC - are important to Delta water management • Then: Sensitivity analysis and parameter correlation • Next: Define objective function and specify weights • ‘Rough’ Calibration • Selected time spans: iterative fine calibration to minimize model error

  3. Minimize: Root Mean Square Error • Weights normalize different observation types (units, magnitudes, data accuracy) • Prioritize: • Total weight by observation type: (Σwi, Σwj, Σwk) on stage (s), flow and velocity (f), and EC (c) • Individual weights within each category

  4. South Delta Ag. Barriers Western model boundary HORB ? Sac R. Boundary? Stage

  5. Old and Middle Rivers QWEST VAMP response DCC response Flow or Velocity

  6. West Delta: Jersey Point, Emmaton 3. 1. 5. 2. 4. EC Compliance Points • South Delta: Old R. nr Middle R., Tracy Rd. Bridge, Brandt Bridge • Interior Delta: SF Mokelumne, SJR San Andreas X2 ? • Export Area: West Canal at CCFB, DMC at Tracy PP • Contra Costa Canal, SJR at Antioch

  7. Operational targets: Stage Flow Salinity targets: EC X2 Quantify ‘goodness of fit’ By-hand: post-processing Automated: needs software Purchase/public domain Develop Zonation to simplify Calibration Objective Function – Defining a Weighting Scheme • Benefit to ‘Management Approach’: • ‘Peer-review’-able body of information • Primary use of DSM2 • Clarifies reliability of model-based management decisions

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