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Introduction to Probability

Introduction to Probability. Probability Quiz. Assign a probability to each event. You will miss a day of school this year. You will get an A in math. A tossed coin will land “tails.” You will gain 10 pounds this year. You will live to be 100 years old. The sun will rise tomorrow.

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Introduction to Probability

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  1. Introduction to Probability

  2. Probability Quiz Assign a probability to each event. • You will miss a day of school this year. • You will get an A in math. • A tossed coin will land “tails.” • You will gain 10 pounds this year. • You will live to be 100 years old. • The sun will rise tomorrow.

  3. Probability Quiz • The next President of the United States will be over 21 years old. • A card drawn from a standard deck will be a club. • You will take a space trip to the moon. • The next baby born in this state will be a girl. • You will listen to your iPod today. • You have type “D” blood.

  4. Definition of Probability • The probability of an event is a number between 0 (0%) and 1 (100%) inclusive that indicates the likelihood of the event occurring. 0% 50% 100% impossible certain

  5. Probability Game with Sum of Dice Goal: To win the most rolls. Directions: Working with a partner, • One player chooses odds while another player chooses evens. • Roll the dice. Sum the faces. • Record the sum on either the odd or even scorecard. • Repeat 99 more times.

  6. Definition of Probability The probability of event A occurring is given by number of ways A can occur P(A) = total number of outcomes

  7. Probability with Cards P(E) P(~E) P(S) P(vowel) P(second half of alphabet) P(second half or vowel) P(second half and vowel) P(before I and vowel) P(before I or vowel)

  8. Probability Game with Sum of Dice • Is this game fair? • How many different ways are there to roll the dice? • How many different ways are there to roll an even number? • How many different ways are there to roll an odd number?

  9. Calculation Probabilities of Sums

  10. P(2)= P(3)= P(4)= P(5)= P(6)= P(7)= P(8)= P(9)= P(10)= P(11)= P(12)= Calculating Probability

  11. Is this game fair? • Circle the different ways to roll even numbers in the chart. • Square the different ways to roll odd numbers in the chart. • How can you determine if this game is fair?

  12. Experimental Probability • Record the number of times you rolled each of the sums on the tally sheet. • Using your tally sheet, calculate the probabilities for rolling a sum of 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 • Create a bar graph of the different sums • How can you determine if this game is fair?

  13. Probability Game with Product of Dice Goal: To win the most rolls. Directions: Working with a partner, • One player chooses odds while another player chooses evens. • Roll the dice. Calculate the product of the faces. • Record the product on either the odd or even scorecard, depending upon the product. • Repeat 99 more times.

  14. Is this game fair or unfair? • If you were even and won, then raise your hand. • Is this game fair? • Prove that this game is either fair or unfair.

  15. Create your own game • Working with your partner, create your own game. • Explain the strategy you would want to use to win your game using probability.

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