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Saxo Bank A/S Outrageous Predictions 2014

Saxo Bank A/S Outrageous Predictions 2014. EU Commission introduces 5-10% wealth tax proposal. “Many bad decisions will be made in the name of inequality and deflation”. Anti-EU alliance will become largest group in parliament.

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Saxo Bank A/S Outrageous Predictions 2014

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  1. Saxo Bank A/S Outrageous Predictions 2014

  2. EU Commission introduces 5-10% wealth tax proposal “Many bad decisions will be made in the name of inequality and deflation”

  3. Anti-EU alliance will become largest group in parliament “May 22-24th EU Parliament Election becomes a cry for less Europe”

  4. Deflationary pressure is a new name of the game Barclays have estimated the chances of European deflation as 50/50 chance using inflation linked products, but being more subjective we will say that next three to six month almost certainly will push more and more European nations close to zero inflation. Greece and Ireland already in deflation, Spain, Sweden, Denmark very close, and even Germans saw inflation decline from 1.4 to 1.2. there is an ETF which tracks the deflation risk called: Powershares DB US Deflation. HSBC Global Research, 6 December 2013 piece: ‘Lacking demand’ have two great charts to illustrate this point - through looking at the GDP growth and the Investment-to-GDP ratio. Good growth is linear correlation indicating investment return is positve and creating growth. Bad growth is rising Investment to GDP ratio while growth trails....  Asia experiences lower growth as reducing the shadow economy now takes centre stage and the current account deficit nations are all looking for weaker currencies, lower import and lower growth.

  5. Germany in recession? “The German miracle turned out to be a mirage…..”

  6. Saxo Banks ‘Black Swan’ Trades for OP-2014 • #1: Germany in recession • Buy ComStage Commerxbank ETF (5x60:xetr @ 128.62) or buy bunds • #2: US 10 Yr. to retest all-time low • Buy IEF:arcx @ 100.65 (Target: 110) • #3: US Housing market tanks in 2014 => QE 100% mortgage • Sell Vanguard REIT CFD (VNQ:arcx) @ 66.00$) • #4: French Luxury is vulnerable • Sell equal weight basket of Hermes(HRMS:xpar)@ 250.65€, Louis Vuitton(MC:xpar)@129.65€ and Sotheby’s(BID:xnys)@ 51.91$ (Target: -50%) • #5: Fragile Five weakens 25% • Sell equal weight basket of fragile five vs. USD (BRL: 2.3250), (ZAR: 10.33), IDR(11974), INR(61.14) and TRY(2.0330)

  7. Stock picking is where the capital goes.. 2013 proved very well for equities. Our view for 2014 remain the same for the companies with strong fundaments. Tapering and overall reduction of support from CBs is already priced in. Unless unexpected shocks appear, we remain positive on the US and EU stocks. The reccord number of orders in 2013 Expected margins improvement Too much pessimism in 2013 Growt potenial of 7.3% Split of GE Capital Increased revenues from the serivices Too much pessimism in 2013 Growth potential of 14.1% Very stable growth Strong sales figures from H2 2013 Solid number of Patents registrations Growt potenial of 22.9% Still very low valuation Replacement of CEO = new potential Solid growth in 2013 Growt potenial of 28.9% French banks should kick back BNP is the best of them Good earnings potential Growt potenial of 8.3%

  8. Tech’s ‘Fat Five’ may wake up to a nasty hangover in 2014 “The US information technology sector is trading about 15% below the current S&P 500 valuation, however, a small group of technology stocks trade at a huge premium of about 700 percent above market valuation, almost defying the “Newtonian laws” of financial markets”

  9. Commodities under pressure due to a high production • Agriculture negative momentum • HFs don’t like them in 2014 • High inventories • Flexible Production in place • Hard times for Grains • Good times for meet & coffee? • Oil needs to be cheaper • High inventories • Mexico, Lybia and Iran • Shale gas • Metals in a tight range • Precious Metals • Copper up 13%+ in 2013 • Will China & India continue their imports?

  10. Brent crude may drop to USD 80/barrel “The global market will be awash in oil”

  11. Thank you!

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