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Russian Oil and Gas Industry: Future under Financial Crisis

Russian Oil and Gas Industry: Future under Financial Crisis. Elena Telegina Director of the Institute of Geopolitics and Energy Security of Russia Member of the Board, Russian Union of Oil Exporters Doctor of Economics, Professor Nice, November 12-13, 2008. Russian Oil Production, mln t.

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Russian Oil and Gas Industry: Future under Financial Crisis

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  1. Russian Oil and Gas Industry:Future under Financial Crisis Elena Telegina Director of the Institute of Geopolitics and Energy Security of Russia Member of the Board, Russian Union of Oil Exporters Doctor of Economics, Professor Nice, November 12-13, 2008

  2. Russian Oil Production, mln t Forecast Energy Strategy 2020 Russian Oil Exports, mln t Forecast Energy Strategy 2020 www.gazo.ru

  3. Russian Oil ProductionGrowth Decline (annual %) Russian Ministry of Energy

  4. Russian Gas Production, bcm Forecast Energy Strategy 2020 Russian Gas Exports, bcm Forecast Energy Strategy 2020 www.gazo.ru

  5. Gazprom Resources,trln cm Gazprom Production, bcm www.gazprom.ru

  6. Gazprom Production in 2007 decreased to 2003 level, bcm www.expert.ru

  7. Gazprom Investment Program to 2010, bln roubles plan Preliminary results All Investment Capital Investment Long-term Investment including credits to affiliates and strategic projects www.gazprom.ru

  8. Russian Gas Production, bcm Total production in 2007 – 653,1 bcm www.gazprom.ru

  9. Russia: Expected gas availability still growing with increasing participation of independent producers www.gazprom.ru www.eurogas.org

  10. Europe: Natural Gas Imports

  11. Main Transmission projects in Eurasia to 2015 www.iea.org

  12. Main Oil and Gas Projects www.gazprom.ru

  13. International&Frontier Sector (EV/Boe vs Commodity Price)

  14. Russian Oil and Gas RTS Index (since November 2007) Oil and Gas Gasprom LUKOIL Rosneft www.finam.ru

  15. Conclusions • Oil and Gas Industry need large investments to be encouraged by legal/policy framework • Majors, NOC’s needsufficient operational cash flow to fund CAPEX commitments • Funding Commitments from BANKS are likely to evaporate until 2009, but projects, equipment financing, production (reserve based landing) financing is possible • Need to raise capital: • Capital Markets: essentially closed • From Partners - at a cost • Projects Abandonned and PostponedIf not properly financed before the funding crunch and If promoter sufficiently financed to resist credit freeze • Europe and Russia need a consistent and mutually supportive approach between internal market and external dimension policies. • Dialogue at all levels with producers, transit countries, industry, customers is needed - the industry is determined to facilitate the process.

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