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Australian Higher Education – Attainment, demand and realities

Australian Higher Education – Attainment, demand and realities. Dr. Daniel Edwards Student Demand Driven Education Conference Sydney, 19 March, 2012. Overview. Snapshot post-Bradley – targets and policies Attainment targets by the numbers Demand – driving attainment

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Australian Higher Education – Attainment, demand and realities

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  1. Australian Higher Education – Attainment, demand and realities Dr. Daniel Edwards Student Demand Driven Education Conference Sydney, 19 March, 2012

  2. Overview • Snapshot post-Bradley – targets and policies • Attainment targets by the numbers • Demand – driving attainment • Thoughts for the conference…

  3. Post-Bradley • Bradley Report: • set ambitions • offered ideas for achieving them • Australian Government accepted the vision. • Its response, Transforming Australia’s Higher Education System: • set targets • policy tools to achieve ambitions

  4. Post-Bradley • Key Targets: • By 2025, 40% of all 25 to 34 year olds will hold a qualification at bachelor level or above. • by 2020, 20% of higher education enrolments at undergraduate level will be of people from a low SES background. • COAG • halve the proportion of 20-64 year olds without Certificate III qualification by 2020. • double the number of qualification completions (diplomas and advanced diplomas)

  5. Post-Bradley • Key Policies: • TEQSA (Tertiary Education Quality and Standards Agency) • Structural Adjustment Funding • Education Investment Fund • Low SES funding/student income support changes • Student-centred funding model (i.e. Demand driven funding)…

  6. Post-Bradley • Demand driven funding: • ‘From 2012, Australian public universities will be funded for student places on the basis of student demand’ • ‘The Government will fund a Commonwealth supported place for all undergraduate domestic students accepted into an eligible, accredited higher education course at a recognised public higher education provider’

  7. Post-Bradley • Rationales for demand driven funding: • offer greater flexibility to institutions (e.g. allowing for adaption during cyclical changes) • offer greater opportunities to potential students • offer greater choice • formalise a system that was essentially operating as such (according to Bradley panel) • ‘necessary if Australia is to achieve better attainment of higher education qualifications’ (Bradley Review p.155)

  8. Attainment Targets • Attainment Trends – 2001 to 2011 2011 = 35% 2001 = 24%

  9. Attainment Targets • 40 per cent attainment – the numbers… Note: base population data for 2010 and 2025 from ABS, Population Projections Australia, Series B, cat. 3222.0 • % growth in bachelor qualified population needs to be double the growth in total population

  10. Attainment Targets • Attainment figures VS domestic participation 2011 = 26.3% 2001 = 22%

  11. Attainment Targets • Skilled migration – professionals aged 25 to 35 settling in Australia 2001-2009 2009 = 35,500 In 2001 skilled migration intake was equivalent to 22% of the number of domestic graduates that year. But by 2009 skilled migration intake equivalent to 36% of the number of domestic graduates. 2001 = 19,000

  12. Attainment Targets • International student completions (bachelor) 2001-2010 2010 = 46,000 ABS: at least one third of graduates successfully apply for permanent residency. Further, visa 485 (graduate skills) facilitates the opportunity to remain in Australia for many more. 2001 = 21,000

  13. Attainment Targets • Summary: • Attainment in Australia has grown substantially in the past decade • Data suggests this growth has been fuelled almost entirely through the skilled migration program and permanent residency for international students • Conclusion: Need to be cautious in the assumption that the trend will continue…

  14. Attainment Targets • …international student numbers slowing after massive growth to 2009. AEI higher education commencement data:

  15. Attainment Targets • Skilled migration still growing and visa options for international students now more accessible. • But policy ups and downs in past few years suggest that relying on these to facilitate attainment growth is unwise • Therefore, the role of domestic provision important…

  16. Attainment Targets • …so what might be needed in terms of higher education output to reach attainment target? • 80% growth in completions 2010 to 2025 • Gains of 5% growth per year from 2015 to 2021, between 2 and 4% other years Source: Centre for Population and Urban Research

  17. Demand driven system • Forecast Growth in a Demand Driven System • DEEWR estimates 2011-12 Federal Budget for full domestic ugrad load – been revised up on a yearly basis and currently stand at: • 3.9% growth 2012-13 • 1.2% growth 2013-14 • 0.8% growth 2014-15

  18. Demand driven system • Bradley Review anticipated modest growth to stem from demand driven funding. The panel noted: • In 2007 when a 5 per cent over-enrolment buffer was introduced, only 3 universities utilised it. • ‘this reflects the general low level of unmet demand for higher education places in the sector’ (p.156) • But once the policy was announced, substantial ‘gearing up’ began – well before the 2012 introduction of the demand driven student funding…

  19. Demand driven system • Reported Estimates of over-enrolment, selected universities • 2010: at least 8 at or above 10% threshold • 2011: at least 12 above threshold

  20. Demand driven system • Actual Growth in the Demand Driven System • Substantial growth in offers across system since 2009 Note: change data from 2006 to 2009 based on DEEWR Offers and Acceptances publication, 2010 to 2012 on data collected from TACs

  21. Demand driven system • Actual Growth in the Demand Driven System • Substantial growth since 2009 Note: change data from 2006 to 2009 based on DEEWR Offers and Acceptances publication, 2010 to 2012 on data collected from TACs

  22. Demand driven system • So, demand driven system is undeniably opening up opportunity for more to study. • And the system is expanding as intended (albeit at a more frenetic pace than first anticipated) • Is this growth enough to reach government targets?...

  23. Demand driven system • Modelling required completions with estimated output from growth …a good start, but the pace must be maintained

  24. Implications and issues • explored the numbers here, they are important but merely set the context • Discussions and issues I look forward to hearing: • 1. Balancing growth and quality • retention • 2. Modes of delivery – is traditional face-to-face sustainable? • academic staffing • infrastructure • 3. Funding • ‘blank cheque’ implications • ‘Friedman and Lenin’s love child’ • 4. Skills needs vs student choice and university provision

  25. Further information: Dr. Daniel Edwards edwardsd@acer.edu.au (03) 9277 5475 www.acer.edu.au/highereducation

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