Chaim Kaufmann

1. Chaim Kaufmann Possible & Impossible Solutions to Peace

2. Chaim Kaufmann Summary Solutions Do Not Depend on Causes How Ethnic Wars End Genocide, temporary suppression by 3rd party, self-governance of separate communities Ethnic Wars vs. Ideological Wars Ethnic identities, loyalties, decisiveness of territory Principles of Intervention Aim at physical separation Economic sanctions, military aid, military intervention

3. John Mueller Summary Hobbesian Depiction is Incorrect Four Stages of War Takeover Carnival Revenge Occupation & desertion Three Conclusions Ethnicity as an ordering device International police force could have solved the issue It can happen anywhere and isn’t inevitable.

4. David Makovsky Summary Oslo Peace Process Dead Partition+Cooperation Arafat’s Lack of Leadership PA and Hamas Poor Economic Situation under PA Israel’s Continued Resettlement Bypass Roads and Settlements Undermined Process’ Integrity Disengagement is Necessary Unilateral Action Acceptable Palestine: Declaration of Statehood & End to Israeli Occupation Israel: Withdrawal of Troops & End to Terrorism Land for Peace hasn't worked because there's nothing in sight on the Palestinian side for reconciliation. Arafat eulogized Yahya Ayyash. Arafat doesn't create realistic expectations among the Palestinians about returning to their homes. PA doesn't answer cell phones at critical times and doesn't cooperate with their Israeli counterparts. CIA dispatched as a liason. PA gives green light to terrorism by releasing known terrorists from prison. Confidence building measures never were never implemented. Israel settlement in the 3 blocks, which Israel plans to annex, and Arafat has agreed to in Camp David continues to draw resentment from Palestinians. They see Bypass roads and continued settlement as an Israeli attempt to prejudice talks on final borders. Palestinian day laborers lost their jobs to Romanian and Thai guest workers. Agreement between the two is preferable, but Israel should act unilaterally if necessary. Disengagement can jump-start negotiations.Land for Peace hasn't worked because there's nothing in sight on the Palestinian side for reconciliation. Arafat eulogized Yahya Ayyash. Arafat doesn't create realistic expectations among the Palestinians about returning to their homes. PA doesn't answer cell phones at critical times and doesn't cooperate with their Israeli counterparts. CIA dispatched as a liason. PA gives green light to terrorism by releasing known terrorists from prison. Confidence building measures never were never implemented. Israel settlement in the 3 blocks, which Israel plans to annex, and Arafat has agreed to in Camp David continues to draw resentment from Palestinians. They see Bypass roads and continued settlement as an Israeli attempt to prejudice talks on final borders. Palestinian day laborers lost their jobs to Romanian and Thai guest workers. Agreement between the two is preferable, but Israel should act unilaterally if necessary. Disengagement can jump-start negotiations.

5. Supported and Opposing Theoriesand Supporting Data

6. Kaufmann says yes… “ Regardless of the causes of a particular conflict, once communities are mobilized for violence, the reality of mutual security threats prevents both demobilization and de-escalation of hyper nationalist discourse…lasting peace requires removal of the security dilemma. The most effective and in many cases the only way to do this is to separate the ethnic groups. ” Int’l Sec. 20, 4 Pg. 159

7. Picture 1 Several Thousand Bosnian Serbs demonstrate in the Bosnian Serb town of Banja Luka, some 190 kilometers (120 miles) northwest of Sarajevo, Tuesday March 16,1999. Several thousands Bosnian Serbs demonstrated against the decision made by Roberts Owen, the U.S. official supervising Brcko, a Bosnian city that has been run by the Serbs under international supervision, will be now administered by all of Bosnia s ethnic groups Serbs, Croats and Muslims. Demonstrations were expected in all major cities in Serb-held part of Bosnia-Herzegovina. Pictures 2&3 Over 1,000 Bosnian Serb high school children gathered Wednesday in Brcko demanding separated school systems and education. The unrest erupted Friday when a group of Serb students beat up a Muslim student after classes. Serb and Muslim students share the same school buildings but attend class in two shifts. (AP Photo/Ognjen Plavsic)Picture 1 Several Thousand Bosnian Serbs demonstrate in the Bosnian Serb town of Banja Luka, some 190 kilometers (120 miles) northwest of Sarajevo, Tuesday March 16,1999. Several thousands Bosnian Serbs demonstrated against the decision made by Roberts Owen, the U.S. official supervising Brcko, a Bosnian city that has been run by the Serbs under international supervision, will be now administered by all of Bosnia s ethnic groups Serbs, Croats and Muslims. Demonstrations were expected in all major cities in Serb-held part of Bosnia-Herzegovina. Pictures 2&3 Over 1,000 Bosnian Serb high school children gathered Wednesday in Brcko demanding separated school systems and education. The unrest erupted Friday when a group of Serb students beat up a Muslim student after classes. Serb and Muslim students share the same school buildings but attend class in two shifts. (AP Photo/Ognjen Plavsic)

8. Mueller says no… “ The crucial dynamic of the wars, however, was not in the rising of neighbor against neighbor, but in the marauding of comparatively small groups… Police…need simply to protect the many from the few, rather than everyone from everyone. Thus it seems likely that a large, impressively armed and well-disciplined international policing force could have been effective in pacifying the thug-dominated conflicts in Yugoslavia and Rwanda. ” International Security 25, 1 Pg. 63-65

9. Does partition merely extend civil conflicts into international ones? Kaufmann NO-Kumar YES "A violent demonstrate on by Cypriots in August 1996 resulted in Greece and Turkey threatening war. The costs of containment, therefore include permenant vigilance on the part of NATO and Atlantic allies." Radka Kumar, Foreign Affairs 76.1, p. 29. Following these events, Cyprus purchased an S-300 missle from Greece. All pictures "Wednesday August 14, 1996 in Dherinia, Cyprus. Turkish troops opened fire on Greek Cypriot mourners who crossed the island's U.N.-supervised dividing line to protest the weekend killing of a Greek Cypriot demonstrator. Solomou was killed when he attempted to lower a Turkish flag from a checkpoint in the buffer zone. At least 11 others were injured, including two United nations peacekeepers."Does partition merely extend civil conflicts into international ones? Kaufmann NO-Kumar YES "A violent demonstrate on by Cypriots in August 1996 resulted in Greece and Turkey threatening war. The costs of containment, therefore include permenant vigilance on the part of NATO and Atlantic allies." Radka Kumar, Foreign Affairs 76.1, p. 29. Following these events, Cyprus purchased an S-300 missle from Greece. All pictures "Wednesday August 14, 1996 in Dherinia, Cyprus. Turkish troops opened fire on Greek Cypriot mourners who crossed the island's U.N.-supervised dividing line to protest the weekend killing of a Greek Cypriot demonstrator. Solomou was killed when he attempted to lower a Turkish flag from a checkpoint in the buffer zone. At least 11 others were injured, including two United nations peacekeepers."

10. Makovsky says yes… “…There is no common ground between them. Their national aspirations are incompatible. The Arabs desire to revive the traditions of the Arab golden age. The Jews desire to show what they can achieve when restored to the land in which the Jewish nation was born. Neither of the two national ideals permits of combination in the service of a single State. ... But while neither ... can fairly rule all of Palestine, each ... might justly rule part of it.” Foreign Affairs 80, 2 Pg. 45

11. "All the while, Palestinian state-run media and state-backed Islamist preachers in mosques have launched unrelenting, venomous attacks against Israel and Jews. Palestinian schoolchildren are often taught to hate frm a young age. And they are prevented from learning anything about Israel; the Jewish state's existence and locateion are conspicuously absent from many of their textbooks." Makovsky, p. 34."All the while, Palestinian state-run media and state-backed Islamist preachers in mosques have launched unrelenting, venomous attacks against Israel and Jews. Palestinian schoolchildren are often taught to hate frm a young age. And they are prevented from learning anything about Israel; the Jewish state's existence and locateion are conspicuously absent from many of their textbooks." Makovsky, p. 34.

12. Kaufmann says no… “ It is not clear that it is in anyone’s power to resolve ethnic hatreds once there has been large-scale violence, especially murders of civilians. Ethnic hostility cannot be reduced without separation. As long as either side fears, even intermittently, that it will be attacked by the other, past atrocities and old hatreds can easily be aroused. ” International Sec. 20, 4 Pg. 173

13. First Photo: "Solutions that aim at restoring multi-ethnic civil politics and at avoiding population transfers cannot work because ethnic fears and hatreds hardened by war are extremely resistant to change." Kaufmann, p. 139. Second Photo: "Ethnic wars generate intense security dilemmas because the escalation of each side's mobilization rhetoric presents a real threat to the other..." Kaufmann, p. 139. First Photo: "Solutions that aim at restoring multi-ethnic civil politics and at avoiding population transfers cannot work because ethnic fears and hatreds hardened by war are extremely resistant to change." Kaufmann, p. 139. Second Photo: "Ethnic wars generate intense security dilemmas because the escalation of each side's mobilization rhetoric presents a real threat to the other..." Kaufmann, p. 139.

14. Mueller says yes… “ The violent conflicts in Croatia and Bosnia…were spawned not so much by the convulsive surging of ancient hatreds or by frenzies whipped up by demagogic politicians and the media as by the ministrations of small-sometimes very small-bands of opportunistic marauders recruited by political leaders and operating under their general guidance. ” International Security 25, 1 Pg. 42

15. Rwandan Hutus give the departing French troops the thumbs-up as the French army pull out of Cyangugu, southwest Rwanda, August 21, 1994. The genocide in Rwanda took 500,000 lives, mainly those of Tutsis. Rwandan Hutus give the departing French troops the thumbs-up as the French army pull out of Cyangugu, southwest Rwanda, August 21, 1994. The genocide in Rwanda took 500,000 lives, mainly those of Tutsis.

16. Makovsky says no… “ Outsiders often assume that the main source of conflict between the Israelis and the Palestinians is how to deal with the West Bank and Gaza. In fact, the conflict runs far deeper. Palestinians and Israelis have radically different historical narratives. These predate the occupation that began in 1967; they go to each side's self-conception as a historical victim, and they have engendered much mutual hatred. ” Foreign Affairs 80, 2 Pg. 30

17. First Picture Waving Hamas flags, mourners carry the coffin with the remains of Yehiya Ayyash through Gaza City during the funeral procession Saturday Jan 6, 1996. Thousands of angry mourners vowed vengence and told Israel to "prepare the body bags" as they marched in the funeral procession of Ayyash, also known as the engineer, masterminde of a string of suicide bombings that killed dozens of Israelis. First Picture Waving Hamas flags, mourners carry the coffin with the remains of Yehiya Ayyash through Gaza City during the funeral procession Saturday Jan 6, 1996. Thousands of angry mourners vowed vengence and told Israel to "prepare the body bags" as they marched in the funeral procession of Ayyash, also known as the engineer, masterminde of a string of suicide bombings that killed dozens of Israelis.

18. Kaufmann says yes… “ Ethnic identities are fixed by birth. While not everyone may be mobilized as an active fighter for his or her own group, hardly anyone ever fights for the opposing ethnic group… extremist within each community are likely to impose sanctions on those who do not contribute to the cause. Conciliation is easy to denounce as dangerous to group security or as actually traitorous. ” International Sec. 20, 4 Pg. 140-142

19. "Conciliation is easy to denounce as dangerous to group security or as actually traitorous. Such arguments drove nationalist extremist to overthrow President Makarious of Cyprus in 1974, to assasinate Mahatma Gandhi in 1948, to massacre nearly the whole government of Rwanda in 1994, ad to kill Yitzak Rabin in 1995." Kaufmann, pg. 143. First Picture: The head of the U.N. in Bosnia-Herzegovina U.S diplomat Jacques Klein, left, listens to a Bosnian Muslim refugees from the eastern Bosnian town of Srebrenica, during their protest in front of the U.N. building in Sarajevo, Thursday April 5, 2001. Several hundred of Srebrenica refugees, survivors of the Srebrenica massacre, blocked the U.N. building in Sarajevo to support their Muslim wartime commander Naser Oric, who was allegedly questioned inside the building by the U.N. war crimes tribunal investigators. Oric is considered a hero by Bosnian Muslims for his role in the Bosnian conflict. Second Picture: Greece 's Prime Minister Costas Simitis, left, and Cypriot President Glafkos Clerides prepare to shake hands before a two-hour meeting in Athens, Thursday, August 27,1998. Both sides announced Thursday that Russian-made S-300 missiles will be deployed on the war-divided island in November, bringing closer the possibility of conflict with Turkey. "Conciliation is easy to denounce as dangerous to group security or as actually traitorous. Such arguments drove nationalist extremist to overthrow President Makarious of Cyprus in 1974, to assasinate Mahatma Gandhi in 1948, to massacre nearly the whole government of Rwanda in 1994, ad to kill Yitzak Rabin in 1995." Kaufmann, pg. 143. First Picture: The head of the U.N. in Bosnia-Herzegovina U.S diplomat Jacques Klein, left, listens to a Bosnian Muslim refugees from the eastern Bosnian town of Srebrenica, during their protest in front of the U.N. building in Sarajevo, Thursday April 5, 2001. Several hundred of Srebrenica refugees, survivors of the Srebrenica massacre, blocked the U.N. building in Sarajevo to support their Muslim wartime commander Naser Oric, who was allegedly questioned inside the building by the U.N. war crimes tribunal investigators. Oric is considered a hero by Bosnian Muslims for his role in the Bosnian conflict. Second Picture: Greece 's Prime Minister Costas Simitis, left, and Cypriot President Glafkos Clerides prepare to shake hands before a two-hour meeting in Athens, Thursday, August 27,1998. Both sides announced Thursday that Russian-made S-300 missiles will be deployed on the war-divided island in November, bringing closer the possibility of conflict with Turkey.

20. Mueller says no… “ The casual notion that each ethnic or national group in Yugoslavia (or indeed anywhere) is united by deep bonds of affection is substantially flawed. Serbs in Serbia have expressed little affection for the desperate and often rough rural Serbs who have fled to their country from war-torn Croatia and Bosnia. ” International Security 25, 1 Pg. 47 Banerjee's Self-Self and Self-Other. In this example one can see self-self divisions between urban and rural Serbs. Self-Other between Muslims and Serbs.Banerjee's Self-Self and Self-Other. In this example one can see self-self divisions between urban and rural Serbs. Self-Other between Muslims and Serbs.

22. Makovsky says yes… “ When asked whether they would recognize Israeli sovereignty over West Jerusalem if Palestinians gained sovereignty over East Jerusalem, an overwhelming 74 percent of Palestinians said no. Furthermore, 60 percent said they did not think there was a chance for peaceful coexistence between Palestinians and Israel. Another Palestinian poll released in December found that a full two-thirds of Palestinians supported "suicide operations" against Israel. ” Foreign Affairs 80, 2 Pg. 34 Evidence of a united Palestinian opinion on the use of terrorism as a vehicle for collective self-determination of the Palestinians.Evidence of a united Palestinian opinion on the use of terrorism as a vehicle for collective self-determination of the Palestinians.

24. Q&A