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US CLIVAR: MJO WORKING GROUP

Enhance model representations and forecasts of the MJO through coordinated research, data analysis, and metric development. Collaborative efforts with international agencies to improve subseasonal predictions.

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US CLIVAR: MJO WORKING GROUP

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  1. US CLIVAR: MJO WORKING GROUP Duane Waliser, co-chair Wanqui Wang Ken Sperber, co-chair Chidong Zhang Siegfried Schubert 2-Yr LifetimeMitch Moncrieff Klaus Weickmann April 2006-> Eric Maloney Bin Wang Leo Donner Additional/International: F. Vitart, S. Woolnough*, H. Hendon*, W. Higgins, J. Gottschalck, W. Stern * International CLIVAR Support • Terms of Reference • Develop a set of metrics to be used for assessing MJO simulation fidelity and forecast skill. • Develop and coordinate model simulation and prediction experiments, in conjunction with model-data comparisons, which are designed to better understand the MJO and improve our model representations and forecasts of the MJO. • Raise awareness of the potential utility of subseasonal and MJO forecasts in the context of the seamless suite of predictions. • Help to coordinate MJO-related activities between national and international agencies and associated programmatic activities. • Provide guidance to US CLIVAR and Interagency Group (IAG) on where additional modeling, analysis or observational resources are needed.

  2. US CLIVAR: MJO WORKING GROUP Near-Term Goals (~ 1+ YEAR) Develop (w/ C. Stephens) MJO WG Web Site. Metrics for Assessing/Diagnosing Model Simulations of the MJO. Prediction Targets and Metrics for MJO Forecasts. Using the Above, Develop an Experimental/ Diagnostics Theme for Modeling/Predicting the MJO in Conjunction With a Workshop.

  3. US CLIVAR: MJO WORKING GROUP AGU Session Subseasonal Working Group ** Meeting ** WCRP/Thorpex Trieste Convection NCAR/TIIMES Retreat Convection Monsoon Related AAMP/ Plans 2007 WGNE Systematic Errors Time Line of Activities

  4. Web Site Resources

  5. Web Site Resources

  6. MJO Weather-Climate Theme Pages

  7. Web Site Resources Expected Additions Extreme Precip Events Asian Monsoon N. American Monsoon Australian Monsoon Mid-Lat Weather Forecast Skill Angular Momentum (LOD) Africa Impacts

  8. Web Site Resources

  9. MJO Simulation Metrics Diagnostic Measures / Metrics Based on Observations for Assessing - and Possibly Diagnosing - Model Simulation Fidelity of the MJO • Observations: Satellite and/or Global Reanalysis Fields • Satellite: OLR, CMAP, TRMM, Surface Flux Products • NCEP/NCAR, ERA-40, JRA-25 • Basic Quantities: OLR, Precip, U850, U200 • Higher Level: 3D structures, Surface Fluxes, Diabatic Terms • Simple / Novice Measures -> Complex / Expert Measures • Simple : Variance Maps, Spectra, EOFs of Basic Quantities • Higher Level : Wave-Freq, Combined EOF, Life-Cycle Composites • Fluxes, Diabatic Terms, Vertical Structure • Mean States and Interannual Variability • Dissemination • Post calculated metrics from observations on web site, including likely the data in its final/metric form and maybe example code where possible. • Apply to a couple models and include results on web site. • Journal Article? • Apply to models for presentation/discussion at proposed workshop. Expect? to be here by Dec

  10. MJO Forecast Metrics Metrics to Assess in Common Terms MJO Forecast Skill/Predictability and Prediction Targets Focused on Users and Applications • Similar Considerations as with Simulations Metrics • Connect to the Simulation Metrics As Much as Possible • Real-time Constraints Introduce Challenges in Identifying the MJO • Less Groundwork to Rely On - Will Need to Entrain Operational Weather and Seasonal Forecast Expertise. • Dissemination - Similar to Simulation Metrics Expect? to be here by Next Summer

  11. Proposed Workshop Theme New Thinking, Tools & Resources for Assessing & Improving the MJO • New Thinking: • Multi-scale structure, Emphasis on Vertical Structure Analysis, Utility of Forecast Framework, A Bridge Between Weather-Climate • New Tools & Resources: • New Era of Satellite Observations, GOOS/IO Array, Multi-Scale Modeling. • Principle Focus Areas: ----> Metrics Application & Vertical Structure -> -> Experimental Framework for Multi-Scale Models ---> -> Experimental Framework for Forecast Experiments --->

  12. US CLIVAR: MJO WORKING GROUP AGU Session Subseasonal Working Group ** Meeting ** WCRP/Thorpex Trieste Convection NCAR/TIIMES Retreat Convection Monsoon Related AAMP/ Plans 2007 WGNE Systematic Errors Time Line of Activities

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