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This article explores the difficulties and controversies surrounding quantitative approaches to environmental migration. It discusses debates on the concept and definition, confusion with refugee numbers, uncertainties about climate change impacts, and the importance of considering different timeframes. The article also examines existing estimates, statistical analyses, and multi-level analyses, and suggests new methods for moving forward, including multi-level analysis, household surveys, time-series analysis, and agent-based modeling.
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Why is it difficult? • Debates on controversies over the concept and very definition of environmental migration • But similarcontroversieswith regard to refugees • Intra-national movements • Confusion between the number of people living in affected regions and the number of migrants • Rooted in a deterministic perspective • Uncertainties about the impacts of climate change • Importance of the timeframe • Are we talking about cumulative migrations/displacements?
What do we have so far? • Annualestimates of people displaced by disasters (IDMC) • A few statistical analyses inferences • Example: Feng, Krueger and Oppenheimer on Mexico-US migration (PNAS 2010) • And evenfewer multi-level analyses • Example: Henry et al. on Burkina Faso (2004)
How to move forward? • Set the right framework • Agree on the typology and definition • Re-scalepredictions • Is there a need for a global figure? • Whichlevel of warming? • Explore new methods
New methods • Multi-level analysis • One of the most robust methods • Combines different methods on different levels • Household surveys • Time-series • Allows for the monitoring of migration trends over longer periods of time • Multi-variate models • Agent-based modeling
