A Tool to Support the Development & Evaluation of State Unit of Aging Programs & Projects

1. Logic Modeling: A Tool to Support the Development & Evaluation of State Unit of Aging Programs & Projects John A. McLaughlin MACGROUPX@AOL.COM

2. My Aim Today • Orient you to a different way to think about conceptualizing and telling the performance story of your State Unit on Aging (SUA) programs and projects • Provide a simple tool for creating a functional picture of how your SUA works to achieve its aims • Offer some helpful hints for framing a useful performance measurement and evaluation strategy for your SUA.

3. Beliefs • Social Advocacy • Client/customer focus • The right to be part of a well run program • Program Staff Advocacy • Managing for Results • Nobody gets it right the first time out!

4. Themes You’ll Hear Today • GOOD MANAGEMENT • Relevance • Quality • Performance • Connections • Evidence

5. More Words • Goals -- Impacts • Objectives • Outcome -- changes • Short-term (proximal) • Intermediate (distal) • Supporting • Resources • Activities • Outputs: productivity and reach

6. PERFORMANCE MANAGEMENT TOOLS PERFORMANCE MANAGEMENT Performance management includes activities to ensure that goals are consistently being met in an effective and efficient manner. Performance management tools include logic models, performance measurement and program evaluation. Performance Measurement Helps you understand what level of performance is achieved by the program/project. Program Evaluation Helps you understand and explain whyyou’re seeing the program/project results. Logic Model Tool/framework that helps identify the program/project resources, activities, outputs customers, and outcomes.

7. Recipes have 3 essential components! A good cook follows the recipe – program staff would do well to create & follow their recipe for success! Logic Models as Recipes

8. If you were going on a trip, what would be the first question you need to answer? Then, what tool would you need? Logic Models as Maps

9. Recipes & Maps are used for: • Planning • Communicating • Performance Measurement and Evaluation

10. The Logic Model

11. Level I Logic Model RESOURCES / INPUTS The ingredients you need to implement your program! YOUR PROGRAM What you do to achieve your long-term aims! RESULTS / IMPACT Why you are in Business!

12. Level II Logic Model Contextual Influences 1rst Order Outcome 2nd Order Outcome Resources Customers Activities Outputs Impact 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Program’s Sphere of Influence HOW WHY

13. Understanding the Sphere of Influence • Ask your team to estimate their level of confidence that their program will lead to each outcome in the logic model. • The Strategic Impact • The Intermediate Outcomes • The Short-term • Identify Performance Partners!

14. Complex Effects Chain Partners Transparency Shared Common Outcomes

15. Elements of Logic Models • Resources / Inputs: Programmatic investments available to support the program. • Objectives / Activities: Things you do– activities you plan to conduct in your program. • Outputs: Product or service delivery/implementation targets you aim to produce. • Customer: User of the products/services. Target audience the program is designed to reach. • Outcomes: Changes or benefits resulting from activities and outputs. • Outcome Structure • Short-term (K, S, A) – Changes in learning, knowledge, attitude, skills, understanding • Intermediate (Behavior) – Changes in behavior, practice or decisions • Long-term (Condition) – Changes in condition • External Influences: Factors that will influence change in the affected community.

16. Outputs & Outcomes

17. Outputs & Outcomes OUTCOME OUTPUT

18. Volunteers • If the program is addressing a situation of low volunteer involvement in community affairs and the purpose of the program is to increase volunteering among community residents as a part of a larger community development initiative, then increased numbers of residents volunteering in community life would be an outcome. The outcome is expressed as a behavioral change.

19. Number or type of participants who attend; number of clients served. • If the purpose of the program is to increase use of a service by an underserved group, then numbers using the service would be an outcome. The outcome is not numbers attending or served; the outcome is expressed as use that indicates behavioral change.

20. Participant Satisfaction. • For our purposes in education and outreach programming, client satisfaction may be necessary but is not sufficient. A participant may be satisfied with various aspects of the program (professionalism of staff, location, facility, timeliness, responsiveness of service, etc) but this does not mean that the person learned, benefited or his/her condition improved.

21. Training, Research, Producing • These are Outputs. They may be essential aspects that are necessary and make it possible for a group or community to change. But, they do not represent benefits or changes in participants and so are not outcomes. They lead to, result in outcomes, but in and of themselves, they are outputs.

22. Steps in the Logic Model Process • Establish a stakeholder work group and collect documents. • Define the problem and context for the program or project. • Define the elements of the program in a table. • Develop a diagram and text describing logical relationships. • Verify the Logic Model with INTERNAL / EXTERNAL stakeholders. • Then use the Logic Model to identify and confirm performance measures, and in planning, conducting and reporting performance measurement and evaluation.

23. Step 1: Establish work group & collect documents & information. • Convene / consult a work group • provides different perspectives and knowledge • attempts agreement on program performance expectations • Review sources of program or project documentation • Strategic and operational plans • Budget requests • Current metrics • Past evaluations • Conduct interviews of appropriate staff

24. Step 2: Define problem program addresses & context. The Context Drivers of Success Constraints on Success Factors leading to the Problem 1 2 3* your niche The Problem Program Addresses The Program

25. Outcomes Resources/ Activities Outputs Customers Short-term Intermediate Long-term Inputs Reached (Change in Attitude) (Change in Behavior) (Change in (Condition) External Influences: Step 3: Define elements of program or project in a table. HOW WHO WHAT & WHY

26. Which leads to these outcomes. 5.0 We use these resources… 1.0 For these activities… 2.0 To produce these outputs 3.0 So that the customers can change these ways. 4.0 Leading to these results! 6.0 Step 4: Develop a diagram & text describing logical relationships. Draw arrows to indicate/link causal relationships between logic model elements. Work from both directions (right-to-left and left-to-right)

27. Two Important Rules to Follow For every action identified in the Logic Model, the must be an output that connects to an outcomethrough aspecific customer. OR An action must produce an output that becomes a key input to another activity. THINK CONNECTIONS!

28. Logic Modeling Exercise 1 Brief application of logic modeling using a United Way example

29. Logic Modeling Exercise GOAL:Provide an opportunity for participants to apply the principles and practices of logic modeling in an interactive setting. INSTRUCTIONS: • The group will be given a set of index cards that contain words or statements that answer the list of questions on the next slide. • As a group, review the questions and use the index cards to map out the logic of our case study program on your flip chart paper. • When the cards are placed/glued on the paper in the correct order, draw lines connecting the cards to show the logic relationships. • When you have completed your logic model, the cards will be ordered so that they describe the program logic and its underlying assumptions (boxes and connecting arrows). • Check your logic using if, then and how, why statements. When you have completed this exercise be prepared to report out to the larger group. REMEMBER THE RULES!

30. Questions to Guide Modeling • What are the essential resources we need to implement program? • What programs / activities do we have to implement with these people to achieve our results? • What are the outputs of our programs? • Who / what do we need to reach to achieve these results? • What are the short-term and intermediate changes that will enable us to realize our strategic results? • What are the strategic results / long-term environmental outcomes we are aiming for? • What external influences to the program context do we have to be aware of?

32. Worksheet Simple Logic Model Diagram Outputs (representative) Short-term Outcomes Intermediate Outcomes Target Audience Activities Resources Long-Term Outcomes EXTERNAL INFLUENCES

34. “Z” LogicSupplier-Customer Relationship Unpacking supports more focused Performance Measurement & thus more useful evaluation, as well as better understanding & communication about how the “Program” is supposed to work!

35. “Unpacked Logic Models”

36. LEVEL I LOGIC MODEL Clean Safe Swimable Fishable Water EPA State Local Private Improving Water Quality Training Program LEVEL II LOGIC MODEL Outcomes Resources Short-term Activities Impact Customers Intermediate Long-term Materials Development Recruitment Training Technical Assistance Website EPA State Local Private Increased awareness of harmful effects Increased awareness of new technologies and incentives Developers & builders acquire new technologies & change practice Clean/ Safe/ Swim-able/ Fishable Water Reduction in NPS pollutants in waterways More Fish Clean Beaches Healthier Wetlands Developers/ Builders

37. LEVEL III LOGIC MODEL Outcomes Resources Activities Outputs Short-term Intermediate Long-term Impact • EPA • State • Local • Private • Materials Development • Materials Ready Developers and builders acquire new technologies and change practice Reduction in NPS pollutants in waterways • ·Increased awareness of harmful effects • Increased awareness of new technologies and incentives Healthier Wetlands • More Fish • Clean Beaches Clean/ Safe/ Swim-able/ Fishable Water • Trainees Ready • Recruitment • Developers/ Builders Trained • Training • Technical Assistance • Trainees Receive TA • Trainees/ Others aware of/using new information • Website

39. Testing The Logic of Strategic Plans

40. Strategic Plan Check: Goals • Is the goal statement outcome oriented? • Does it specify the expected strategic change / impact for a specific target group (older persons & disabled)? • What evidence is available that this impact / change is important (relevance)? Are there existing needs data? • What specific roles, if any, do partners (internal & external) play in the success of this impact? • Are there missing Goals to enable the mission / vision to be realized? • What concerns you most about this goal, right now?

41. Strategic Plan Check: Objectives • Is the objective outcome oriented? • Does it clearly specify the anticipated change for a specific target group & why they need to be changed? • Does the change relate to the goal? Will success with this objective lead to success with the goal? (QUALITY) • What evidence is available that that this change is important? Are there existing needs data? • What specific roles, if any, do partners (internal & external) play in the success of this objective? • Are there missing Objectives to enable the goal to be realized? • What concerns you most about this objective, right now?

42. Strategic Plan Check: Strategies • Is there a reasonable degree of confidence that strategy will result in achievement of a specific outcome for a specific group? • What evidence is available that this strategy is the right strategy – in comparison to others – to achieve the outcome that is specified? • What specific roles, if any, do partners (internal & external) play in the success of this strategy? • Considering the strategy you’ve adopted, do you have sufficient resources on hand or available to actualize the strategy? • Are there missing strategies to enable the objectives to be realized? • What concerns you most about this strategy, right now?

43. Scenario Checking What if’s! • Select several external forces & imagine related changes which might influence the SUA, e.g., change in regulations, demographic changes, etc. Scanning the environment for key characteristics often suggests potential changes that might effect the alliance, as does sharing the plan with stakeholders! • For each change in a force, discuss 3 different future SUA scenarios (including best case, worst case, & reasonable case) which might arise with the SUA as a result of each change. Reviewing the worst-case scenario often provokes strong motivation to change the SUA – forming partnerships, changing strategy. • Conduct likelihood / Impact assessment on each external influence.

44. Scenario CheckingWhat if’s! • Select most likely external changes to effect the SUA, e.g., over the next 3-5 years, identify the most reasonable strategies the SUA can undertake to respond to change. Suggest what the SUA might do, or potential strategies, in each of the 3 scenarios to respond to each change. • This process should be repeated for each element of the Logic Model • Program structure – Resources, Activities, Outputs • Outcome structure – Short-term, Intermediate, Strategic • REMEMBER – “NOBODY GETS IT RIGHT THE FIRST TIME OUT!”

45. Logic Modeling Exercise 2 Brief application of logic modeling focusing on a typical SUA program

46. Logic Modeling Exercise GOAL: Provide an opportunity for participants to apply the principles & practices of logic modeling in an interactive setting. INSTRUCTIONS: • Participants will identify 1 SUA program (e.g., community awareness, home delivered or congregate meals, education) to Logic Model as it operates currently. • Group will construct a Level I & Level II Logic Model. • After constructing the Models and checking using if, then and how, why questions, the participants should discuss who they might tweak the Model to address Choice. • Participants will be prepared to present their Modules to the whole group.

47. Benefits of Logic Modeling • Communicates the performance story of the program or project. • Focuses attention on the most important connections between actions and results. • Builds a common understanding among staff and with stakeholders. • Helps staff “manage for results” and informs program design. • Finds “gaps” in the logic of a program and works to resolve them.

48. Logic Modeling Benefits Kellogg, 1998

49. The real value -- • Most of the value in a logic model is in the process of creating, validating, and modifying the model … The clarity in thinking that occurs from building the model and the depth and breath of those involved are critical to the overall success of the process as well as the program. Adapted from W.K. Kellogg Foundation Handbook, 1998

50. Social Mechanism