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A Survey on Software Cost Estimation in Chinese Software Industry

A Survey on Software Cost Estimation in Chinese Software Industry. Da Yang, Qing Wang, Mingshu Li, Ye Yang, Kai Ye, and Jing Du Institute of Software, Chinese Academy of Sciences (ISCAS) COCOMO Forum’08 October 28, 2008. Outline. Background and Research Questions Research Methods

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A Survey on Software Cost Estimation in Chinese Software Industry

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  1. A Survey on Software Cost Estimation in Chinese Software Industry Da Yang, Qing Wang, Mingshu Li, Ye Yang, Kai Ye, and Jing Du Institute of Software,Chinese Academy of Sciences (ISCAS) COCOMO Forum’08 October 28, 2008

  2. Outline Background and Research Questions Research Methods Survey Results and Discussions Threat to Validity Future Works

  3. Background What to improve and how? • Important to know the current situation of software cost estimation in the industry • Performance, methods used, causes for the low use of cost estimation models, etc. Factors motivated this survey research • Still no survey on software cost estimation in the Chinese software industry • Most of the previous surveys were conducted in the 1980s or early 1990s. • Business environment, development technology, and process are changing • Lacked research on the factors which influence the adoptions of software cost estimation methods and the factors lead to the low use of model-based software cost estimation

  4. Research Questions Current Performance • RQ#1: What is the accuracy of effort and schedule estimation? • RQ#2: Does project size affect effort and schedule estimation accuracy? Current Practice • RQ#3: To what extent are different estimation methods used in the industry? • RQ#4: For what purposes are cost estimations used? • RQ#7: When do organizations usually make cost estimations? Current stakeholders • RQ#5: How important do people think estimation is, in comparison with other aspects of development? • RQ#6: How satisfied are people with the current software cost estimation? Factors for current situation • RQ#8: What are the causes of inaccurate estimations? • RQ#9: What are the barriers and difficulties in the application of software cost estimation models?

  5. Research Methods Investigate performance of estimation • Needs large amount of detailed project data The CSBSG data set • Collected by the Chinese Software Benchmarking Standards Group to reflect the status and best practices of the Chinese software industry. • 112 projects have recorded complete information of planned and actual values of project development effort and schedule.

  6. Summary of the 112 projects Project distribution across business areas

  7. Research Methods Conducting questionnaire survey • Followed SEI Guideline of Survey Design • 1) Identify the research objectives • 2) Identify and characterize the target audience • 3) Design the sampling plan • "2007 Chinese Systems and Software Process Improvement Conference“ • 4) Design and prepare the questionnaire • 5) Pilot test the questionnaire • Reduce ambiguities, remove difficult questions • 6) Distribute the questionnaire • 400 questionnaires. Got 171 respondents from 116 organizations. • 7) Analyze the results

  8. Information about software process improvement Size of the 116 respondent organizations

  9. Outline Background and Research Questions Research Methods Survey Results and Discussions Threat to Validity Future Works

  10. Survey Results and Discussions • RQ#1: What is the accuracy of effort and schedule estimation? • RQ#2: Does project size affect effort and schedule estimation accuracy? • RQ#8: What are the causes of inaccurate estimations? To present the survey results, we needs to • Organize our various observations • estimation performance, technology usage, barriers of technology transfer, potential improvement, etc. • Provide a holistic view of the current situation of software cost estimation • The UTAUT (Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology) model is used

  11. Comparison of the estimation accuracy

  12. Distribution of the cost estimation REE 22% projects Overrun > 20% 29% projects Overrun > 20% Observations on research question #1: • More than half of the software projects suffered from effort or cost overruns. • 22% projects overran effort greater than 20%, • 29% projects overran schedule greater than 20%.

  13. Observations on research question # 2: Large software projects vs. small ones • had lower effort and schedule estimation accuracy • were more prone to effort and schedule overruns • had higher variance of estimation accuracy

  14. Survey Results and Discussions • RQ#3: To what extent are different estimation methods used in the industry?

  15. Estimation methods used by organizations 1) existing literature suggests that the capacity-related and price-to-win methods reinforce poor practices and generally produce large overruns 2) OB3 indicates that 'set or change estimation results according to pressure like capacity or price' is one of the top three rated causes for inaccurate cost estimations.

  16. Survey Results and Discussions RQ#9: What are the barriers and difficulties in the application of software cost estimation models?

  17. Effort Expectancy Facilitating Conditions Performance Expectancy Social Influence

  18. Survey Results and Discussions RQ#5: How important do people think estimation is, in comparison with other aspects of development? RQ#6: How satisfied are people with the current software cost estimation?

  19. The importance of software cost estimation • The satisfaction level of respondents

  20. Survey Results and Discussions Based on the UTAUT model, the findings suggest: • Only providing accurate cost estimation is not enough to guaranty the acceptance and usage of a cost estimation technology • To introduce new cost estimation technology and change the current situation, we should also pay attention to the "performance expectancy", "effort expectancy", "social influence", and "facilitating conditions“ of the technology.

  21. Survey Results and Discussions • RQ#4: For what purposes are cost estimations used? • RQ#7: When do organizations usually make cost estimations?

  22. The usage purposes of software cost estimation

  23. When cost estimations are usually made • OB8 and OB9 indicate two needs of software cost estimation • better support of various estimation goals • better support of early lifecycle cost estimation (when uncertainty is large)

  24. Threat to Validity Projects Data • may be recorded by organizations with higher maturity levels Questionnaire samples • may be biased to organizations above average size and process maturity level of the industry Generalizability of the results • Cultural issues that reduce the generalizability of the results

  25. Future Works Conduct surveys and experiments in more detail • See the variance and changes in the performance of software cost estimations • Identify related factors and potential improvements Design measures • To evaluate cost estimation methods based on 1)performance expectancy, 2)effort expectancy, 3)social influence, and 4)facilitating conditions. Developing new estimation processes, methods, and tools to address those considerations

  26. Thank You! Contact info: ye@itechs.iscas.ac.cn

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